Is Mining Fuelling Long-run Growth in Russia? Industry Productivity Growth Trends since 1995

GDP per capita growth rates in Russia have been amongst the highest in the world since the mid-1990s. Previous growth accounting research at the macro-level suggests that this was mainly driven by multi-factor productivity (MFP) growth. In this paper we analyze for the first time the drivers of Russian growth at the level of industries. We derive a proper measure of capital services, instead of using stock measures as in previous research. Using this, we find that aggregate GDP growth is driven as much by capital input as MFP growth. Mining and Retailing industries are growing fast, but have poor MFP performance. In contrast, MFP growth was high in goods-producing industries but their share in GDP declined. MFP growth was highest in those industries that were particularly underdeveloped in the Russian economy in the 1990s

Coordination mechanisms for inventory control in three-echelon serial and distribution systems

This paper is concerned with the coordination of inventory control in three-echelon serial and distribution systems under decentralized control. All installations in these supply chains track echelon inventories. Under decentralized control the installations will decide upon base stock levels that minimize their own inventory costs. In general these levels do not coincide with the optimal base stock levels in the global optimum of the chain under centralized control. Hence, the total cost under decentralized control is larger than under centralized control. To remove this cost inefficiency, two simple coordination mechanisms are presented: one for serial systems and one for distribution systems. Both mechanisms are initiated by the most downstream installation(s). The upstream installation increases its base stock level while the downstream installation compensates the upstream one for the increase of costs and provides it with a part of its gain from coordination. It is shown that both coordination mechanisms result in the global optimum of the chain being the unique Nash equilibrium of the corresponding strategic game. Furthermore, all installations agree upon the use of these mechanisms because they result in lower costs per installation. The practical implementation of these mechanisms is discussed

Confluence versus Ample Sets in Probabilistic Branching Time

To improve the efficiency of model checking in general, and probabilistic model checking in particular, several reduction techniques have been introduced. Two of these, confluence reduction and partial-order reduction by means of ample sets, are based on similar principles, and both preserve branching-time properties for probabilistic models. Confluence reduction has been introduced for probabilistic automata, whereas ample set reduction has been introduced for Markov decision processes. This paper explores the relationship between confluence and ample sets. To this end, we redefine confluence reduction to handle MDPs. We show that all non-trivial ample sets consist of confluent transitions, but that the converse is not true. We also show that the two notions coincide if the definition of confluence is restricted, and point out the relevant parts where the two theories differ. The results we present also hold for non-probabilistic models, as our theorems can just as well be applied in a context where all transitions are non-probabilistic. To show a practical application of our results, we adapt a state space generation technique based on representative states, already known in combination with confluence reduction, so that it can also be applied with partial-order reduction

Correlated X-ray and Optical Variability in Mkn 509

We present results of a 3 year monitoring campaign of the Seyfert 1 galaxy Markarian 509, using X-ray data from the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) and optical data taken by the SMARTS consortium. Both light curves show significant variations, and are strongly correlated with the optical flux leading the X-ray flux by 15 days. The X-ray power spectrum shows a steep high-frequency slope of -2.0, breaking to a slope of -1.0 at at timescale of 34 days. The lag from optical to X-ray emission is most likely caused by variations in the accretion disk propagating inward.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures. Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

Artifacts with uneven sampling of red noise

The vast majority of sampling systems operate in a standard way: at each tick of a fixed-frequency master clock a digitizer reads out a voltage that corresponds to the value of some physical quantity and translates it into a bit pattern that is either transmitted, stored, or processed right away. Thus signal sampling at evenly spaced time intervals is the rule: however this is not always the case, and uneven sampling is sometimes unavoidable. While periodic or quasi-periodic uneven sampling of a deterministic signal can reasonably be expected to produce artifacts, it is much less obvious that the same happens with noise: here I show that this is indeed the case only for long-memory noise processes, i.e., power-law noises $1/f^\alpha$ with $\alpha > 2$. The resulting artifacts are usually a nuisance although they can be eliminated with a proper processing of the signal samples, but they could also be turned to advantage and used to encode information.Comment: 5 figure

Vintage effects in human capital:Europe versus the United States

The standard assumption in growth accounting is that an hour worked by a worker of given type delivers a constant quantity of labor services over time. This assumption may be violated due to vintage effects, which were shown to be important in the United States since the early 1980s, leading to an underestimation of the growth of labor input (Bowlus and Robinson, 2012). We apply their method for identifying vintage effects to a comparison between the United States and six European countries. We find that vintage effects led to increases of labor services per hour worked by high-skilled workers in the United States and United Kingdom and decreases in Continental European countries between 1995 and 2005. Rather than productivity growth advantage of the US and UK, the primary difference with Continental European countries was human capital vintage effects instead