Towards a Theory of Trade Finance

Cross border transactions are conducted using diffierent payment contracts, the usage of which varies across countries and over time. In this paper I build a model that can explain this observation and study implications from this for international trade. In the model exporters optimally choose payment contracts, trading off differences in enforcement and efficiency between financial markets in different countries. I find that the ability of firms to switch contracts is central to the reaction of trade to variations in financial conditions. Numerical experiments with a two-country version of the model suggest that limiting the choice between payment contracts reduces traded quantities by up to 60 percent.trade finance, payment contracts, trade patterns, financial crisis

Towards a Theory of Trade Finance

Shipping goods internationally is risky and takes time. To allocate risk and to finance the time gap between production and sale, a range of payment contracts is utilized. I study the optimal choice between these payment contracts considering one shot transactions, repeated transactions and implications for trade. The equilibrium contract is determined by financial market characteristics and contracting environments in both the source and the destination country. Trade increases in enforcement probabilities and decreases in financing costs proportional to the time needed for trade. Empirical results from gravity regressions are in line with the model, highly significant and economically relevant.trade finance, payment contracts, trade patterns, distance interaction

Guide to Spectral Proper Orthogonal Decomposition

This paper discusses the spectral proper orthogonal decomposition and its use in identifying modes, or structures, in flow data. A specific algorithm based on estimating the cross-spectral density tensor with Welch’s method is presented, and guidance is provided on selecting data sampling parameters and understanding tradeoffs among them in terms of bias, variability, aliasing, and leakage. Practical implementation issues, including dealing with large datasets, are discussed and illustrated with examples involving experimental and computational turbulent flow data

Towton, 1461: An integrated approach to battlefield archaeology

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Bank Bailouts, International Linkages and Cooperation

Financial institutions are increasingly linked internationally. As a result, financial crisis and government intervention have stronger effects beyond borders. We provide a model of international contagion allowing for bank bailouts. While a social planner trades off tax distortions, liquidation losses and intra- and intercountry income inequality, in the noncooperative game between governments there are inefficiencies due to externalities, no burden sharing and free-riding. We show that, in absence of cooperation, stronger interbank linkages make government interests diverge, whereas cross-border asset holdings tend to align them. We analyze different forms of cooperation and their effects on global and national welfare.Portfolio choice, international transmission of shocks, monetary policy

Heterogeneous firms, "Profit Shifting" FDI and international tax competition

Larger firms are more likely to use tax haven operations to exploit international tax differences. We study a tax game between a large country and a tax haven modeling heterogenous monopolistic firms, which can shift profits abroad. We shows that a higher degree of firm heterogeneity (a mean-preserving spread of the cost distribution) increases the degree of tax competition, i.e. it decreases the equilibrium tax rate of the large country, leads to higher outflows of its tax base and thus decreases its equilibrium tax revenue. Similar effects hold for a higher substitutability across varieties. We find that models with homogeneous firms understate the strenght of tax competition.Heterogeneous firms, tax competition, profit shifting, tax havens.

Bank Bail-Outs, International Linkages and Cooperation

Financial institutions are increasingly linked internationally and engaged in cross-border operations. As a result, financial crises and potential bail-outs by governments have important international implications. Extending Allen and Gale (2000) we provide a model of international contagion allowing for bank bail-outs financed by distortionary taxes. In the sequential game between governments, there are inefficiencies due to spillovers, free-riding and limited burden-sharing. When countries are of equal size, an increase in cross-border deposit holdings improves, in general, the non-cooperative outcome. For efficient crisis managment, ex-ante fiscal burden sharing is essential as ex-post contracts between governments do not achieve the same global welfare.bail-out, contagion, financial crisis, international institutional arrangements

Bank Bailouts, International Linkages and Cooperation

Financial institutions are increasingly linked internationally. As a result, financial crisis and government intervention have stronger effects beyond borders. We provide a model of international contagion allowing for bank bailouts. While a social planner trades off tax distortions, liquidation losses and intra- and inter-country income inequality, in the non-cooperative game between governments there are inefficiencies due to externalities, no burden sharing and free-riding. We show that, in absence of cooperation, stronger interbank linkages make government interests diverge, whereas cross-border asset holdings tend to align them. We analyze different forms of cooperation and their effects on global and national welfare.bailout, contagion, financial crisis, international institutional arrangements

Spectral proper orthogonal decomposition and its relationship to dynamic mode decomposition and resolvent analysis

We consider the frequency domain form of proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) called spectral proper orthogonal decomposition (SPOD). Spectral POD is derived from a space-time POD problem for statistically stationary flows and leads to modes that each oscillate at a single frequency. This form of POD goes back to the original work of Lumley (Stochastic tools in turbulence, Academic Press, 1970), but has been overshadowed by a space-only form of POD since the 1990s. We clarify the relationship between these two forms of POD and show that SPOD modes represent structures that evolve coherently in space and time while space-only POD modes in general do not. We also establish a relationship between SPOD and dynamic mode decomposition (DMD); we show that SPOD modes are in fact optimally averaged DMD modes obtained from an ensemble DMD problem for stationary flows. Accordingly, SPOD modes represent structures that are dynamic in the same sense as DMD modes but also optimally account for the statistical variability of turbulent flows. Finally, we establish a connection between SPOD and resolvent analysis. The key observation is that the resolvent-mode expansion coefficients must be regarded as statistical quantities to ensure convergent approximations of the flow statistics. When the expansion coefficients are uncorrelated, we show that SPOD and resolvent modes are identical. Our theoretical results and the overall utility of SPOD are demonstrated using two example problems: the complex Ginzburg-Landau equation and a turbulent jet