Famine Demography - An Introduction

Most dictionary definitions of ‘famine’ equate it with food scarcity and widespread hunger. They tend to remain silent on the demographic aspects, although the extra mortality caused by famines offers one easy and obvious gauge for ranking famines. By this reckoning, for example, the Great Irish Famine of the 1840s was the greatest in nineteenth-century Europe. By the same token some of the modern famines highlighted in media accounts are ‘small’ by historical standards. Excess mortality, however, is only one aspect of famine demography. Famines typically reduce births and marriages too, and the migrations that they often give rise to may either increase or reduce the death toll. There are differences also between how modern famines kill and how historical famines did so. Modern famines differ too in who they kill; they tend to be more class-specific and they seem even more likely to target males than females than famines in the past. Moreover, famines often have demographic causes as well as consequences; and their consequences may be long-term as well as short-term.

Birth control can solve problems: Tim Dyson talks sustainability at the UN Commission

Access to birth control could improve health and urban growth issues in the world’s least demographically developed countries, Tim Dyson told the UN Commission in New York

Demographic change and democratization – Professor Tim Dyson

In recent articles, Tim Dyson, Professor of Population Studies, explores the relationship between progress through the demographic transition and political advance

Demographer Dyson in demand ahead of World Population Day

Tim Dyson, Professor in Population and Development, has become a popular frame of reference recently ahead of World Population Day, which fell on Saturday 11 July

Part 2: is population growth good or bad for economic development?

In our previous post we described the shifting views of economists and demographers regarding the relationship between population growth and economic development. In short, rapid population growth in developing countries was thought to be a problem in the 1950s and 1960s, irrelevant (or even positive) in the 1970s and 1980s, and again an obstacle to robust economic growth from the mid-1990s up until today. Moreover, these changing views were very much in line with the evidence available for each period. How can we explain this

Changing views on child mortality and economic sanctions in Iraq: a history of lies, damned lies, and statistics

In August 1990, Saddam Hussein’s army invaded Kuwait and consequently the United Nations imposed economic sanctions on Iraq. In 1991, an international military alliance expelled the Iraqi army from Kuwait during a short war. Nevertheless, the economic sanctions remained in place—their removal required that Iraq should destroy its weapons of mass destruction. Subsequent years saw reports of acute suffering in Iraq. The sanctions undoubtedly greatly reduced the country’s ability to import supplies of food and medicine. Particular concerns arose about the state of young children. These concerns crystalised in 1999 when, with cooperation from the Iraqi government, Unicef conducted a major demographic survey. The results of the survey indicated that the under-5 death rate in Iraq had increased hugely between 1990 and 1991 and had then continued at a very high level. The survey results were used both to challenge and support the case for the invasion of Iraq in 2003. And they were cited by Tony Blair in 2010 in his testimony to the Iraq Inquiry established by the British government. Indeed, the results of the 1999 Unicef/Government of Iraq survey are still cited. Since 2003, however, several more surveys dealing with child mortality have been undertaken. Their results show no sign of a huge and enduring rise in the under-5 death rate starting in 1991. It is therefore clear that Saddam Hussein’s government successfully manipulated the 1999 survey in order to convey a very false impression—something that is surely deserving of greater recognition

Part 1: is population growth good or bad for economic development?

This post is the first in a two part series exploring the relationship between population growth and economic development – a relationship that appears to have changed over time. See here for part tw

Demographic Responses To Famines In South Asia

Summary This article examines demographic responses to major famines in the Indian subcontinent, including the Bengal famine of 1943–44, the Bangladesh famine of 1974–75 and food crises in Bihar and Maharashtra. It argues that while a decline in conceptions (and, subsequently, births) is a prompt and virtually universal response to famine situations, the relationship of a rise in death rates to circumstances of famine is both much more complex and less certain. Increases in mortality due to famine ? when they occur ? are conditioned not just by food problems, but also by an array of factors such as current patterns of disease, migration, relief and rainfall. Knowledge about the normal prevailing seasonal distribution of mortality is especially helpful in anticipating when famine death rates may rise. Relatedly, information about malaria and rainfall regimes can also be particularly important. The article also addresses famine mortality differentials according to their patterns by age and sex. Study of neglected historical data sources underscores the complexity and interrelated nature of the main elements ? fertility, mortality and migration ? of famine demography. Resumé Les Résponses Démographiques A La Famine En Asie Du Sud Le présent article examine les réponses démographiques face aux famines majeures qui se sont déclarées dans le sous?continent indien, y compris la famine de 1943–44 au Bengale; la famine de 1974–75 au Bangladesh; et les crises d'approvisionnement alimentaire dans les états du Bihar et du Maharashtra. L'auteur estime que, si une diminution dans le taux de conceptions (et, par la suite, de naissances) est une réponse rapide et pratiquement universelle aux cas de famine, le rapport entre les augmentations dans le taux de mortalité et ces cas de famine est un phénomène à la fois bien plus complexe ? et beaucoup moins certain. Les augmentations dans le taux de mortalité dues à la famine, lorsque celle?ci se déclare, ont pour préconditions non seulement les problèmes de l'alimentation mais aussi, tout un éventail d'autres facteurs tels que les mouvements dans les taux de maladie; la migration; la lutte contre la famine; et la hauteur des précipitations. Une connaissance de la distribution saisonnière normale ? pour la period sous considération ? des taux de mortalité est surtout utile si l'on veut essayer d'anticiper à quel stade les taux de mortalité dûs à la famine seront susceptibles de s'élever. Parallèlement, les renseignements concernant le paludisme et les pronostics de hauteur des précipitations seront éventuellement tout aussi importantes. Le présent article s'adresse également aux différentiels de mortalité par la famine en termes de leurs tranches d'age et en termes des genres. Une étude des sources négligées de données historiques sert à souligner la complexité et l'interdépendance des principaux éléments de la démographie de la famine: la fertilité, la mortalité et la migration. Resumen Respuestas Demográficas Al Problema Del Hambre En Asia Del Sur Este artículo examina las respuestas demográficas a las peores situaciones de hambre en el sub?continente indio, incluyendo la crisis de Bengal en 1943–1944, la de Bangladesh en 1974–1975, y otras crisis de alimentos en Bihar y Maharashtra. Se argumenta que si bien la declinación en cincepciones (y, subsecuentemente, nacimientos) es una respuesta immediata y vitualmente universal a las situaciones de hambre, la relación entre el aumento de tasas de mortalidad y las circunstancias de hambre es a la vez mucho más compleja y mucho menos segura. El incremento en la mortalidad como consecuencia del hambre ? cuando ocurre ? está condicionado no sólo por problemas de alimentos, sino también por una serir de factores como los patrones de enfermedad, migración, ayuda externa y cantidad de illuvia. El conocimiento de la distribución predominante de la mortalidad de acuerdo a la época del año ayuda especialmente para anticipar el momento en que las tasas de mortalidad por hambre pueden aumentar. En conexión con ésto último, la información sobre malaria y regímenes de cantidad de lluvia puede ser también particularmente importante. El artículo también explora las diferenciales en la mortalidad por hambre de acuerdo a la edad y al sexo. El estudio de fuentes de datos históricamente relegados subraya la complejidad y naturaleza interrelacionada de los prioncipales elementos de la demografía del hambre: fertilidad, mortalidad y migración

On the Future of Internet Governance

These proceedings represent the perspectives and views of several experts and participants in the Internet Governance and ICANN process of the late 1990s and early 2000s