Can near real-time monitoring of emergency department diagnoses facilitate early response to sporadic meningococcal infection? - prospective and retrospective evaluations

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Meningococcal infection causes severe, rapidly progressing illness and reporting of cases is mandatory in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. The NSW Department of Health operates near real-time Emergency Department (ED) surveillance that includes capture and statistical analysis of clinical preliminary diagnoses. The system can provide alerts in response to specific diagnoses entered in the ED computer system. This study assessed whether once daily reporting of clinical diagnoses of meningococcal infection using the ED surveillance system provides an opportunity for timelier public health response for this disease.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study involved a prospective and retrospective component. First, reporting of ED diagnoses of meningococcal infection from the ED surveillance system prospectively operated in parallel with conventional surveillance which requires direct telephone reporting of this scheduled medical condition to local public health authorities by hospitals and laboratories when a meningococcal infection diagnosis is made. Follow-up of the ED diagnoses determined whether meningococcal infection was confirmed, and the time difference between ED surveillance report and notification by conventional means. Second, cases of meningococcal infection reported by conventional surveillance during 2004 were retrospectively matched to ED visits to determine the sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of ED surveillance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During the prospective evaluation, 31 patients were diagnosed with meningococcal infection in participating EDs. Of these, 12 had confirmed meningococcal disease, resulting in a PPV of 38.7%. All confirmed cases were notified earlier to public health authorities by conventional reporting.</p> <p>Of 149 cases of notified meningococcal disease identified retrospectively, 130 were linked to an ED visit. The sensitivity and PPV of the ED diagnosis for meningococcal infection was 36.2% and 36.7%, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Based on prospective evaluation, it is reassuring that existing mechanisms for reporting meningococcal infection perform well and are timely. The retrospective evaluation found low sensitivity and PPV of ED diagnoses for meningococcal disease. Even if more rapid forwarding of ED meningococcal diagnoses to public health authorities were possible, the low sensitivity and PPV do not justify this. In this study, use of an ED surveillance system to augment conventional surveillance of this scheduled medical condition did not demonstrate a benefit.</p

The impact of compulsory helmet legislation on cyclist head injuries in New South Wales, Australia: A response

This article responds to criticisms made in a rejoinder (Accident Analysis and Prevention 2012, 45: 107–109) questioning the validity of a study on the impact of mandatory helmet legislation (MHL) for cyclists in New South Wales, Australia. We systematically address the criticisms through clarification of our methods, extension of the original analysis and discussion of new evidence on the population-level effects of MHL. Extensions of our analysis confirm the original conclusions that MHL had a beneficial effect on head injury rates over and above background trends and changes in cycling participation. The ongoing debate around MHL draws attention away from important ways in which both safety and participation can be improved through investment in well-connected cycling infrastructure, fostering consideration between road users, and adequate legal protection for vulnerable road users. These are the essential elements for providing a cycling environment that encourages participation, with all its health, economic and environmental benefits, while maximising safety

Non-compliance with clinical guidelines increases the risk of complications after primary total hip and knee joint replacement surgery

Background Total hip and total knee replacement (THR/TKR) are common and effective surgeries to reduce the pain and disability associated with arthritis but are associated with small but significant risks of preventable complications such as surgical site infection (SSI) and venous-thrombo-embolism (VTE). This study aims to determine the degree to which hospital care was compliant with clinical guidelines for the prevention of SSI and VTE after THR/TKR; and whether non-compliant prophylaxis is associated with increased risk of complications. Methods and findings A prospective multi-centre cohort study was undertaken in consenting adults with osteoarthritis undergoing elective primary TKR/THR at one of 19 high-volume Australian public or private hospitals. Data were collected prior to surgery and for one-year post-surgery. Four adjusted logistic regression analyses were undertaken to explore associations between binary non-compliance and the risk of surgical complications: (1) composite (simultaneous) non-compliance with both (VTE and antibiotic) guidelines and composite complications [all-cause mortality, VTE, readmission/reoperation for joint-related reasons (one-year) and non-joint-related reasons (35-days)], (2) VTE non-compliance and VTE outcomes, (3) antibiotic non-compliance and any SSI, and (4) antibiotic non-compliance and deep SSI. Data were analysed for 1875 participants. Guideline non-compliance rates were high: 65% (VTE), 87% (antibiotics) and 95% (composite guideline). Composite non-compliance was not associated with composite complication (12.8% vs 8.3%, adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.41, 95%CI 0.68–3.45, p = 0.40). Non-compliance with VTE guidelines was associated with VTE outcomes (5% vs 2.4%, AOR = 2.83, 95%CI 1.59–5.28,p < 0.001). Non-compliance with antibiotic guidelines was associated with any SSI (14.8% vs 6.1%, AOR = 1.98, 95%CI 1.17–3.62,p = 0.02) but not deep infection (3.7% vs 1.2%,AOR = 2.39, 95%CI 0.85–10.00, p = 0.15). Conclusions We found high rates of clinical variation and statistically significant associations between non-compliance with VTE and antibiotic guidelines and increased risk of VTE and SSI, respectively. Complications after THR/TKR surgery may be decreased by improving compliance with clinical guidelines

Association between VTE and antibiotic prophylaxis guideline compliance and patient-reported outcomes after total hip and knee arthroplasty : an observational study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) and venous thromboembolism (VTE) are associated with high burden and cost and are considered largely preventable following total knee or hip arthroplasty (TKA, THA). The risk of developing VTE and SSI is reduced when prophylaxis is compliant with evidence-based clinical guidelines. However, the association between VTE and antibiotic prophylaxis clinical guideline compliance and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) after THA/TKA is unknown. This study aims to explore whether care that is non-compliant with VTE and antibiotic guideline recommendations is associated with PROMs (Oxford Hip/Knee Score and EQ-5D Index scores) at 90- and 365-days after surgery. Methods: This prospective observational study included high-volume arthroplasty public and private sites and consenting eligible participants undergoing elective primary THA/TKA. We conducted multiple linear regression and linear mixed-effects modelling to explore the associations between non-compliance with VTE and antibiotic guidelines, and PROMs. Results: The sample included 1838 participants. Compliance with VTE and antibiotic guidelines was 35% and 13.2% respectively. In adjusted modelling, non-compliance with VTE guidelines was not associated with 90-day Oxford score (β = − 0.54, standard error [SE] = 0.34, p = 0.112) but was significantly associated with lower (worse) 365-day Oxford score (β = − 0.76, SE = 0.29, p = 0.009), lower EQ-5D Index scores at 90- (β = − 0.02 SE = 0.008, p = 0.011) and 365-days (β = − 0.03, SE = 0.008, p = 0.002). The changes in Oxford and EQ-5D Index scores were not clinically important. Noncompliance with antibiotic guidelines was not associated with either PROM at 90- (Oxford: β = − 0.45, standard error [SE] = 0.47, p = 0.341; EQ-5D: β = − 0.001, SE = 0.011, p = 0.891) or 365-days (Oxford score: β = − 0.06, SE = 0.41, p = 0.880 EQ-5D: β = − 0.010, SE = 0.012, p = 0.383). Results were consistent when complications were included in the model and in linear mixed-effects modelling with the insurance sector as a random effect. Conclusions: Non-compliance with VTE prophylaxis guidelines, but not antibiotic guidelines, is associated with statistically significant but not clinically meaningful differences in Oxford scores and EQ-5D Index scores at 365 days

Some methods for blindfolded record linkage

BACKGROUND: The linkage of records which refer to the same entity in separate data collections is a common requirement in public health and biomedical research. Traditionally, record linkage techniques have required that all the identifying data in which links are sought be revealed to at least one party, often a third party. This necessarily invades personal privacy and requires complete trust in the intentions of that party and their ability to maintain security and confidentiality. Dusserre, Quantin, Bouzelat and colleagues have demonstrated that it is possible to use secure one-way hash transformations to carry out follow-up epidemiological studies without any party having to reveal identifying information about any of the subjects – a technique which we refer to as "blindfolded record linkage". A limitation of their method is that only exact comparisons of values are possible, although phonetic encoding of names and other strings can be used to allow for some types of typographical variation and data errors. METHODS: A method is described which permits the calculation of a general similarity measure, the n-gram score, without having to reveal the data being compared, albeit at some cost in computation and data communication. This method can be combined with public key cryptography and automatic estimation of linkage model parameters to create an overall system for blindfolded record linkage. RESULTS: The system described offers good protection against misdeeds or security failures by any one party, but remains vulnerable to collusion between or simultaneous compromise of two or more parties involved in the linkage operation. In order to reduce the likelihood of this, the use of last-minute allocation of tasks to substitutable servers is proposed. Proof-of-concept computer programmes written in the Python programming language are provided to illustrate the similarity comparison protocol. CONCLUSION: Although the protocols described in this paper are not unconditionally secure, they do suggest the feasibility, with the aid of modern cryptographic techniques and high speed communication networks, of a general purpose probabilistic record linkage system which permits record linkage studies to be carried out with negligible risk of invasion of personal privacy

Effect of a chemical manufacturing plant on community cancer rates

BACKGROUND: We conducted a retrospective study to determine if potential past exposure to dioxin had resulted in increased incidence of cancer in people living near a former manufacturing plant in New South Wales, Australia. During operation, from 1928 to 1970, by-products of the manufacturing process, including dioxin and other chemical waste, were dumped into wetlands and mangroves, discharged into a nearby bay and used to reclaim land along the foreshore, leaving a legacy of significant dioxin contamination. METHODS: We selected 20 Census Collector Districts within 1.5 kilometres of the former manufacturing plant as the study area. We obtained data on all cases of cancer and deaths from cancer in New South Wales from 1972 to 2001. We also compared rates for some cancer types that have been associated with dioxin exposure. Based on a person's residential address at time of cancer diagnosis, or at time of death due to cancer, various geo-coding software and processes were used to determine which collector district the case or death should be attributed to. Age and sex specific population data were used to calculate standardised incidence ratios and standardised mortality ratios, to compare the study area to two comparison areas, using indirect standardisation. RESULTS: During the 30-year study period 1,106 cases of cancer and 524 deaths due to cancer were identified in the study area. This corresponds to an age-sex standardised rate of 3.2 cases per 1,000 person-years exposed and 1.6 deaths per 1,000 person-years exposed. The study area had a lower rate of cancer and deaths from cancer than the comparison areas. The case incidence and mortality due to lung and bronchus carcinomas and haematopoietic cancers did not differ significantly from the comparison areas for the study period. There was no obvious geographical trend in ratios when comparing individual collector districts to New South Wales according to distance from the potential source of dioxin exposure. CONCLUSION: This investigation found no evidence that dioxin contamination from this site resulted in increased cancer rates in the potentially exposed population living around the former manufacturing plant

A proposed architecture and method of operation for improving the protection of privacy and confidentiality in disease registers

BACKGROUND: Disease registers aim to collect information about all instances of a disease or condition in a defined population of individuals. Traditionally methods of operating disease registers have required that notifications of cases be identified by unique identifiers such as social security number or national identification number, or by ensembles of non-unique identifying data items, such as name, sex and date of birth. However, growing concern over the privacy and confidentiality aspects of disease registers may hinder their future operation. Technical solutions to these legitimate concerns are needed. DISCUSSION: An alternative method of operation is proposed which involves splitting the personal identifiers from the medical details at the source of notification, and separately encrypting each part using asymmetrical (public key) cryptographic methods. The identifying information is sent to a single Population Register, and the medical details to the relevant disease register. The Population Register uses probabilistic record linkage to assign a unique personal identification (UPI) number to each person notified to it, although not necessarily everyone in the entire population. This UPI is shared only with a single trusted third party whose sole function is to translate between this UPI and separate series of personal identification numbers which are specific to each disease register. SUMMARY: The system proposed would significantly improve the protection of privacy and confidentiality, while still allowing the efficient linkage of records between disease registers, under the control and supervision of the trusted third party and independent ethics committees. The proposed architecture could accommodate genetic databases and tissue banks as well as a wide range of other health and social data collections. It is important that proposals such as this are subject to widespread scrutiny by information security experts, researchers and interested members of the general public, alike

Potential for early warning of viral influenza activity in the community by monitoring clinical diagnoses of influenza in hospital emergency departments

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although syndromic surveillance systems are gaining acceptance as useful tools in public health, doubts remain about whether the anticipated early warning benefits exist. Many assessments of this question do not adequately account for the confounding effects of autocorrelation and trend when comparing surveillance time series and few compare the syndromic data stream against a continuous laboratory-based standard. We used time series methods to assess whether monitoring of daily counts of Emergency Department (ED) visits assigned a clinical diagnosis of influenza could offer earlier warning of increased incidence of viral influenza in the population compared with surveillance of daily counts of positive influenza test results from laboratories.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>For the five-year period 2001 to 2005, time series were assembled of ED visits assigned a provisional ED diagnosis of influenza and of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Poisson regression models were fitted to both time series to minimise the confounding effects of trend and autocorrelation and to control for other calendar influences. To assess the relative timeliness of the two series, cross-correlation analysis was performed on the model residuals. Modelling and cross-correlation analysis were repeated for each individual year.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using the full five-year time series, short-term changes in the ED time series were estimated to precede changes in the laboratory series by three days. For individual years, the estimate was between three and 18 days. The time advantage estimated for the individual years 2003–2005 was consistently between three and four days.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Monitoring time series of ED visits clinically diagnosed with influenza could potentially provide three days early warning compared with surveillance of laboratory-confirmed influenza. When current laboratory processing and reporting delays are taken into account this time advantage is even greater.</p