FARMING SYSTEMS USED IN U.S. UPLAND COTTON PRODUCTION, 1997, 1999 and 2000

Replaced with revised version of paper 03/08/04.Crop Production/Industries,

Forecasting Spikes in Electricity Prices

In many electricity markets, retailers purchase electricity at an unregulated spot price and sell to consumers at a heavily regulated price. Consequently the occurrence of extreme movements in the spot price represents a major source of risk to retailers and the accurate forecasting of these extreme events or price spikes is an important aspect of effective risk management. Traditional approaches to modeling electricity prices are aimed primarily at predicting the trajectory of spot prices. By contrast, this paper focuses exclusively on the prediction of spikes in electricity prices. The time series of price spikes is treated as a realization of a discrete-time point process and a nonlinear variant of the autoregressive conditional hazard (ACH) model is used to model this process. The model is estimated using half-hourly data from the Australian electricity market for the sample period 1 March 2001 to 30 June 2007. The estimated model is then used to provide one-step-ahead forecasts of the probability of an extreme event for every half hour for the forecast period, 1 July 2007 to 30 September 2007, chosen to correspond to the duration of a typical forward contract. The forecasting performance of the model is then evaluated against a benchmark that is consistent with the assumptions of commonly-used electricity pricing models.Electricity Prices, Price Spikes, Autoregressive Conditional Duration, Autoregressive

Detecting Common Dynamics in Transitory Components

This paper considers VAR/VECM models for variables exhibiting cointegration and common features in the transitory components. While the presence of cointegration reduces the rank of the long-run multiplier matrix, other types of common features lead to rank reduction in the short-run dynamics. These common transitory components arise when linear combination of the first differenced variables in a cointegrated VAR are white noise. This paper offers a reinterpretation of the traditional approach to testing for common feature dynamics, namely checking for a singular covariance matrix for the transitory components. Instead, the matrix of short-run coefficients becomes the focus of the testing procedure thus allowing a wide range of tests for reduced rank in parameter matrices to be potentially relevant tests of common transitory components. The performance of the different methods is illustrated in a Monte Carlo analysis which is then used to reexamine an existing empirical study. Finally, this approach is applied to analyze whether one would observe common dynamics in standard DSGE models.Transitory components, common features, reduced rank, cointegration.

Re-purposing MOOCs for academic credit: a student and tutor perspective

The presentation briefly outlines practices in respect of the Accreditation of Prior Learning and their use in awarding credit for students who complete an automated assessment from a Massive Online Learning Course (MOOC). The presentation tells the story of how this was achieved for the first time from the perspective of the tutor and student. Some preliminary research findings indicate that this is probably unique in the UK

Everything counts! - Warum kleine Gemeinden die Gewinner der Zensuserhebung 2011 sind

The population and housing census 2011 was an EU-wide census in all EU member states. In Germany, the basis was a largely register-based method. In this paper, it is shown that communities with less than 10.000 inhabitants have significantly less relative losses in the number of inhabitants compared to communities with more than 10.000 inhabitants.Comment: in Germa

How the network properties of shareholders vary with investor type and country

We construct two examples of shareholder networks in which shareholders are connected if they have shares in the same company. We do this for the shareholders in Turkish companies and we compare this against the network formed from the shareholdings in Dutch companies. We analyse the properties of these two networks in terms of the different types of shareholder. We create a suitable randomised version of these networks to enable us to find significant features in our networks. For that we find the roles played by different types of shareholder in these networks, and also show how these roles differ in the two countries we study

Drosophila Ctf4 is essential for efficient DNA replication and normal cell cycle progression

Background Proper coordination of the functions at the DNA replication fork is vital to the normal functioning of a cell. Specifically the precise coordination of helicase and polymerase activity is crucial for efficient passage though S phase. The Ctf4 protein has been shown to be a central member of the replication fork and links the replicative MCM helicase and DNA polymerase α primase. In addition, it has been implicated as a member of a complex that promotes replication fork stability, the Fork Protection Complex (FPC), and as being important for sister chromatid cohesion. As such, understanding the role of Ctf4 within the context of a multicellular organism will be integral to our understanding of its potential role in developmental and disease processes. Results We find that Drosophila Ctf4 is a conserved protein that interacts with members of the GINS complex, Mcm2, and Polymerase α primase. Using in vivo RNAi knockdown of CTF4 in Drosophila we show that Ctf4 is required for viability, S phase progression, sister chromatid cohesion, endoreplication, and coping with replication stress. Conclusions Ctf4 remains a central player in DNA replication. Our findings are consistent with what has been previously reported for CTF4 function in yeast, Xenopus extracts, and human tissue culture. We show that Ctf4 function is conserved and that Drosophila can be effectively used as a model to further probe the precise function of Ctf4 as a member of the replication fork and possible roles in development

Coupling of the Gulf of California to large-scale interannual climatic variability

The source of interannual changes in the ocean climate of the Gulf of California, indicated by sea level and shore temperature anomalies, is determined by comparison with large-scale circulation in the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere. Independent modes of variability in the large-scale circulation are defined by empirical orthogonal function analysis of eight time series representing the principle ocean currents and surface wind systems. Interannual ocean climate in the Gulf of California is related only to the equatorial mode of variability commonly known as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. There is no discernible relationship between the Gulf and independent modes of variability in the North Pacific gyre. Interannual variability in the Gulf is associated with the cyclonic north equatorial circulation composed of the North Equatorial Countercurrent, the North Equatorial Current and the Costa Rica Current