Coping Strategies in Post-War Rural Mozambique

This paper analyses post-war coping strategies by farm households in developing countries. The analysis is based on a portfolio model of activity choices in war-affected rural Sub- Saharan Africa. A case study using farm household survey data estimates the determinants of agricultural coping strategies in post-war Mozambique. Post-war coping strategies differ from pre- and mid-crisis coping strategies. War-affected households are forced to adopt very risky coping strategies that re-enforce their vulnerability. Households choose between market and non-market forms of exchange and even consider exiting markets entirely. Post-war reconstruction policy should focus on re-capitalizing households, providing public goods and establishing markets.coping strategies, activity choices, labour allocation, portfolio model, war, conflict, reconstruction, policy, Mozambique, Africa

An Economic Analysis of Security Policies

This paper analyses public policy choices in the security economy from an economic perspective. It discusses the role of public goods for national and global security and identifies the importance of the first- and second-order indirect effects of insecurity on economic activity, which include the behavioural responses of agents and the government to security measures, akin to such effects in insurance economics. Furthermore, key public policy trade-offs are outlined, in particular between security and efficiency, globalisation, equity and freedom. The analysis identifies suitable policy options for raising security in the national and international contexts and in view of these trade-offs. A suitable balance between market and non-market instruments in achieving security should be aimed for to minimise the adverse effects of aiming for higher security. In addition, the public good nature of security implies that international coordination of security policies is important, despite this process being itself fraught with enforcement problems.Collective goods; Public policy; Regulation; Risk; Security; Terrorism

Coping Strategies in Post-War Rural Mozambique

This paper analyses post-war coping strategies by farm households in developing countries. The analysis is based on a portfolio model of activity choices in war-affected rural Sub-Saharan Africa. A case study using farm household survey data estimates the determinants of agricultural coping strategies in post-war Mozambique. Post-war coping strategies are expected to differ from pre- and mid-crisis coping strategies. War-affected households are forced to adopt very risky coping strategies that re-enforce their vulnerability. Households choose between market and non-market forms of exchange and even exit markets entirely. Post-war reconstruction policy should focus on re-capitalizing households and providing public goods. --agriculture,households,rural development,war,Mozambique,Africa

Land Access, Tenure and Investment in Post-War Northern Mozambique

The relationship between land investment and tenure security is usually tested in land scarce but peaceful areas. This article examines instead the effects of land abundance and war for investment and tenure security. The paper demonstrates that war enhances land abundance. This implies that farm size for the analysis of land investment and tenure security. The paper formally tests for land abundance and estimates a system of equations using farm survey data from post-war Mozambique. Farm size is found to be a key determinant of both investment and tenure security. This raises important policy issues for post-war reconstruction.land, property rights, tenure security, investment, war, conflict, reconstruction, policy, Mozambique, Africa

Child Morbidity and Camp Decongestion in Post-war Uganda

Conflict related displacement affects millions of families throughout the world. Very little is known about the determinants of health outcomes in the period immediately after a cease-fire is agreed, in which currently displaced people living in camps consider returning to their place of origin. In this paper, we study the effects of war and displacement on the health of children, using morbidity data collected as part of a large household survey from post-war northern Uganda in 2007. We combine this dataset with geo-coded conflict event data at the individual level to overcome the challenges of selection bias and endogeneity arising from households choosing their location in part based on their health status. This methodological concern is confirmed in our analysis. We then estimate the determinants of child morbidity (proxied by various health indicators) in an instrumental variables multivariate model, where conflict intensity at place of birth of the head of household is used as an instrument. We find that while children in IDP camps and in returnee locations exhibit the same mean morbidity rates, IDP camp residency almost doubles morbidity while poor access to safe drinking water in return locations counteracts the positive health effects of camp decongestion. Our results point to the importance of overcrowding and poor cooking technologies in IDP camps for worsening morbidity in children and the need to provide better sanitation and drinking water access in return locations to further improve the health status of conflict-affected children. Better data and analysis in early post-war periods can help to balance public health interventions, thereby strengthening the peace process.Violent conflict, health, displacement, Uganda

The Effects of Conflict on Fertility in Rwanda

The aim of this paper is to study the short and long-term fertility effects of mass violent conflict on different population sub-groups. The authors pool three nationally representative demographic and health surveys from before and after the genocide in Rwanda, identifying conflict exposure of the survivors in multiple ways. The analysis finds a robust effect of genocide on fertility, with a strong replacement effect for lost children. Having lost siblings reduces fertility only in the short term. Most interesting is the continued importance of the institution of marriage in determining fertility and in reducing fertility for the large group of widows in Rwanda.conflict, demography, fertility, gender, genocide, Rwanda

20 Years of German Unification: Evidence on Income Convergence and Heterogeneity

We analyse the convergence and heterogeneity of living standards between East and West Germany since unification. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we compare total individual income of permanent adult residents, including retirees and the unemployed, of East and West Germany over the fifteen years for which data are available. Using a fixed effects vector decomposition method, we estimate the gross total income difference between East and West Germans taking unobserved heterogeneity into account. Our analysis demonstrates that the negative income gap has decreased from 33 per cent in 1992 to 22 per cent in 2002, rising again to 26 per cent in 2007. Hence some convergence took place in nominal terms since unification. Constructing income gaps by decennial cohorts, we discover that the most recent cohorts have the highest negative income gap. This probably reflects out-migration from East Germany by the young and highly skilled. On the basis of quantile regressions we find a positive income gap at the beginning of the 1990s for the lower income deciles (that is higher incomes in East Germany). This was due to retirees in the East with relative long employment histories receiving transfer payments by western standards. The income gap is insignificant when accounting for heterogeneity at the area level by including area level variables to our regression.unification, living standards, income inequality, distribution, GSOEP, Germany

Challenges for German Development Cooperation in the Run-up to the Millennium +5 Summit

Extreme poverty blights the lives of one fifth of the world's population and denies more than 100 million children per year the chance of an education. Today in sub-Saharan Africa alone 45 million children are out of school and 313 million people are living on less than US $ 1 a day. 2005 provides an opportunity for rich countries to help put in place effective and cost-efficient strategies needed to change this picture in the long run. The world can choose to continue on its current course, leading to increased poverty and additional human suffering, or to adopt an agenda in favour of expanded human welfare and human security. This agenda is incorporated in the Millennium Development Goals still achievable with an increased support from Germany and the EU. However, in order for this to happen, the heads of state and government at the G8 Summit in Gleneagles and at the Millennium+5 Summit in New York this summer must make the right political decisions. We propose an analysis that can serve as the basis for discussions and decisions during these summits. Germany has then potential to assume an internationally significant role in the key areas of human development, trade policy and human security and thus credibly promote further reforms to alleviate poverty within the G8 states, the European Union and the United Nations.

Determinants of Protests: Longitudinal Evidence from Ukraine’s Orange Revolution

This paper is the first study that analyzes the drivers of political protest using longitudinal data from a critical revolution that changed –at least temporarily– the political landscape in a transition country. We make use of a rich dataset consisting of panel data collected before and after the so called “Orange” revolution in Ukraine. Our empirical approach tackles two different –and equally interesting– features of the revolution: the determinants of participation (both in the protests and counter-protests) and the “selection” of participants into different levels of involvement (i.e. intensity of participation). We consider different drivers of participation, from traditional proxies for opportunities and grievances, but we also analyze the role of political and economic preferences, risk tolerance, life satisfaction, and indicators of network connectivity. What emerges from this study is a more nuanced pattern of participation that does not link uniquely to a single theoretical model.