On the flexibility of the design of Multiple Try Metropolis schemes

The Multiple Try Metropolis (MTM) method is a generalization of the classical Metropolis-Hastings algorithm in which the next state of the chain is chosen among a set of samples, according to normalized weights. In the literature, several extensions have been proposed. In this work, we show and remark upon the flexibility of the design of MTM-type methods, fulfilling the detailed balance condition. We discuss several possibilities and show different numerical results

Transforming teacher education, an activity theory analysis

This paper explores the work of teacher education in England and Scotland. It seeks to locate this work within conflicting socio-cultural views of professional practice and academic work. Drawing on an activity theory framework that integrates the analysis of these contradictory discourses with a study of teacher educators’ practical activities, including the material artefacts that mediate the work, the paper offers a critical perspective on the social organisation of university-based teacher education. Informed by Engeström’s activity theory concept of transformation, the paper extends the discussion of contradictions in teacher education to consider the wider socio-cultural relations of the work. The findings raise important questions about the way in which teacher education work within universities is organised and the division of labour between schools and universities

Probabilistic classification of acute myocardial infarction from multiple cardiac markers

Logistic regression and Gaussian mixture model (GMM) classifiers have been trained to estimate the probability of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in patients based upon the concentrations of a panel of cardiac markers. The panel consists of two new markers, fatty acid binding protein (FABP) and glycogen phosphorylase BB (GPBB), in addition to the traditional cardiac troponin I (cTnI), creatine kinase MB (CKMB) and myoglobin. The effect of using principal component analysis (PCA) and Fisher discriminant analysis (FDA) to preprocess the marker concentrations was also investigated. The need for classifiers to give an accurate estimate of the probability of AMI is argued and three categories of performance measure are described, namely discriminatory ability, sharpness, and reliability. Numerical performance measures for each category are given and applied. The optimum classifier, based solely upon the samples take on admission, was the logistic regression classifier using FDA preprocessing. This gave an accuracy of 0.85 (95% confidence interval: 0.78–0.91) and a normalised Brier score of 0.89. When samples at both admission and a further time, 1–6 h later, were included, the performance increased significantly, showing that logistic regression classifiers can indeed use the information from the five cardiac markers to accurately and reliably estimate the probability AMI

How to Construct a Seasonal Index

4 pp., 5 graphsFor many crops, seasonality is often the dominant factor influencing prices within a single production period. This publication explains how to construct and use several kinds of seasonal indexes for crop marketing information

Seasonality and Its Effects on Crop Markets

4 pp., 1 table, 2 graphsUnderstanding crop seasonality can improve a producer's marketing skills and options. The causes of seasonality and its effects on price changes are discussed

Selection of tuning parameters in bridge regression models via Bayesian information criterion

We consider the bridge linear regression modeling, which can produce a sparse or non-sparse model. A crucial point in the model building process is the selection of adjusted parameters including a regularization parameter and a tuning parameter in bridge regression models. The choice of the adjusted parameters can be viewed as a model selection and evaluation problem. We propose a model selection criterion for evaluating bridge regression models in terms of Bayesian approach. This selection criterion enables us to select the adjusted parameters objectively. We investigate the effectiveness of our proposed modeling strategy through some numerical examples.Comment: 20 pages, 5 figure