Assessing historical realibility of the agent-based model of the global energy system

This study looks at the historical reliability of the agent-based model of the global energy system. We present a mathematical framework for the agent-based model calibration and sensitivity analysis based on historical observations. Simulation consistency with the historical record is measured as a distance between two vectors of data points and inference on parameter values is done from the probability distribution of this stochastic estimate. Proposed methodology is applied to the model of the global energy system. Some model properties and limitations followed from calibration results are discussed

Modeling Technological Change in Energy Systems : from optimization to agent-based simulation

Operational optimization models are one of the main streams in modeling practices on energy systems. Agent-based modeling and simulations seems to be another rising stream in the field of modeling energy systems. In either optimization or agent-based modeling practices, technological change in energy systems is a very important and inevitable factor that modelers need to deal with. By introducing three modeling practices with a deliberately simplified energy system, this paper tries to explain how traditional optimization model, endogenous technological change optimization model, and agent-based model treat technological change differently and compares different philosophy underlying the three modeling practices and their advantages and disadvantages.The original publication is available at JAIST Press http://www.jaist.ac.jp/library/jaist-press/index.htmlProceedings of KSS'2007 : The Eighth International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences : November 5-7, 2007, [Ishikawa High-Tech Conference Center, Nomi, Ishikawa, JAPAN]Organized by: Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technolog

Agent-Based Modeling on Technological Innovation as an Evolutionary Process

This paper describes a multi-agent model built to simulate the process of technological innovation, based on the widely accepted theory that technological innovation can be seen as an evolutionary process. The actors in the simulation include producers and a large number of consumers. Every producer will produce several types of products at each step. Each product is composed of several design parameters and several performance parameters (fitness components). Kauffman’s famous NK model is used to deal with the mapping from design parameter space (DPS) to performance parameter space (PPS). In addition to the constructional selection, which can be illustrated by the NK model, we added environmental selection into the simulation and explored technological innovation as the result of the interaction between these two kinds of selection

An agent-based approach to identification of prediction models

This paper presents an agent-based approach to identification of prediction models in two-dimensional data spaces. A number of agents are sent to the two-dimensional data space that people want to investigate. At the micro-level, every agent tries to build a local linear model by competing with others, and then at the macro-level all surviving agents build the global model by cooperating with each other. And a genetic algorithm is introduced for improving the global model built by the agents. Two examples that apply this approach are given. The advantages of this approach are it does not need people to give a certain formula in advance; and most of time, it can give more precise prediction models than those given by traditional methods

An agent-based approach for predictions based on multi-dimensional complex data

This paper presents an agent-based approach to the identification of prediction models for continuous values from multi-dimensional data, both numerical and categorical. A simple description of the approach is: a number of agents are sent to the data space to be investigated. At the micro-level, each agent tries to build a local linear model with multi-linear regression by competing with others; then at the macro-level all surviving agents build the global model by introducing membership functions. Three tests were carried out and the performance of the approach was compared with a neural network. The results of the three tests show that the agent-based approach can achieve good performance for some data sets. The approach complements rather than competes with existing Soft Computing methods

A Road Mapping Approach for Research Cooperation among Academia Industry and Government

In this paper, we focus on the cooperation and relations of research topics and researchers who are doing technology creation in academia, technology development in industry and policy making in government. We address Road Mapping Approach (RMA), which is used successfully in industry for technology development, as data collection and analysis methods to support scientific research of technology development in research fields such as materials science, information science, etc., for helping researchers find new interests, new research topics, and also promoting cooperation among industry, university and government.The original publication is available at JAIST Press http://www.jaist.ac.jp/library/jaist-press/index.htmlProceedings of KSS'2007 : The Eighth International Symposium on Knowledge and Systems Sciences : November 5-7, 2007, [Ishikawa High-Tech Conference Center, Nomi, Ishikawa, JAPAN]Organized by: Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technolog

Applying OWA operator to model group behaviors in uncertain QFD

It is a crucial step to derive the priority order of design requirements (DRs) from customer requirements (CRs) in quality function deployment (QFD). However, it is not straightforward to prioritize DRs due to two types of uncertainties: human subjective perception and user variability. This paper proposes an OWA based group decision-making approach to uncertain QFD with an application to a flexible manufacturing system design. The proposed model performs computations solely based on the order-based semantics of linguistic labels so as to eliminate the burden of quantifying qualitative concepts in QFD. Moreover, it incorporates the importance weights of users and the concept of fuzzy majority into aggregations of fuzzy preference relations of different DRs in order to model the group behaviors in QFD. Finally, based on a quantifier-guided net flow score procedure, the proposed model derives a priority ranking with a classification of DRs into important and unimportant ones so as to provide a better decision-support to the decision-maker.International Symposium, IUKM 2013, Beijing, China, July 12-14, 2013

On qualitative multi-attribute group decision making and its consensus measure: A probability based perspective

This paper focuses on qualitative multi-attribute group decision making (MAGDM) with linguistic information in terms of single linguistic terms and/or flexible linguistic expressions. To do so, we propose a new linguistic decision rule based on the concepts of random preference and stochastic dominance, by a probability based interpretation of weight information. The importance weights and the concept of fuzzy majority are incorporated into both the multi-attribute and collective decision rule by the so-called weighted ordered weighted averaging operator with the input parameters expressed as probability distributions over a linguistic term set. Moreover, a probability based method is proposed to measure the consensus degree between individual and collective overall random preferences based on the concept of stochastic dominance, which also takes both the importance weights and the fuzzy majority into account. As such, our proposed approaches are based on the ordinal semantics of linguistic terms and voting statistics. By this, on one hand, the strict constraint of the uniform linguistic term set in linguistic decision making can be released; on the other hand, the difference and variation of individual opinions can be captured. The proposed approaches can deal with qualitative MAGDM with single linguistic terms and flexible linguistic expressions. Two application examples taken from the literature are used to illuminate the proposed techniques by comparisons with existing studies. The results show that our proposed approaches are comparable with existing studies

Creativity Support for Roadmapping

Today the term "roadmap" is used liberally by planners in many different types of communities. It appears to have a multiplicity of meanings, and is used in a wide variety of contexts: by commercial organizations, industry associations, governments, and academia, see, e.g., Kostoff and Schaller (2001). Perhaps the most widely accepted definition of a roadmap was given by Robert Galvin, former CEO of Motorola (Galvin 1998