Population, Population Density, and Technological Change

In a model on population and endogenous technological change, Kremer combines a short-run Malthusian scenario where income determines the population that can be sustained, with the Boserupian insight that greater population spurs technological change and can therefore lift a country out of its Malthusian trap. We show that a more realistic version of the model, which combines population and population density, allows deeper insights into these processes. The incorporation of population density also allows a superior interpretation of the empirical regularities between the level of population, population density, population growth, and economic development, both at aggregated and disaggregated levels.

Political risk and export promotion: evidence from Germany

Political risk represents an important hidden transaction cost that reduces international trade. This paper investigates the claim that German public export credit guarantees (Hermes guarantees) mitigate this friction to trade flows and hence promote exports. We employ an empirical trade gravity model, where we explicitly control for political risk in the importing country in order to evaluate the effect of export guarantees. The idea behind export promotion through public export credit agencies (ECAs) is that the private market is unable to provide adequate insurance for all risks associated with exports. As a consequence, firms' export activities are limited in the absence of insurance provision. Using a novel data set on guarantees we estimate the effect of guarantees in a static and dynamic panel model. We find a statistically and economically significant positive effect of public export guarantees on exports which indicates that export promotion is indeed effective. Furthermore, political risk turns out to be a robust determinant of exports and hence should be taken into account in any empirical model of trade. --public export credit guarantees,political risk,panel regression

Political risk and export promotion: Evidence from Germany

Political risk represents an important hidden transaction cost that reduces international trade. This paper investigates the claim that German public export credit guarantees (Hermes guarantees) mitigate this friction to trade flows and hence promote exports. We employ an empirical trade gravity model, where we explicitly control for political risk in the importing country in order to evaluate the effect of export guarantees. The idea behind export promotion through public export credit agencies (ECAs) is that the private market is unable to provide adequate insurance for all risks associated with exports. As a consequence, firms' export activities are limited in the absence of insurance provision. Using a novel data set on guarantees we estimate the effect of guarantees in a static and dynamic panel model. We find a statistically and economically significant positive effect of public export guarantees on exports which indicates that export promotion is indeed effective. Furthermore, political risk turns out to be a robust determinant of exports and hence should be taken into account in any empirical model of trade. --public export credit guarantees,political risk,panel regression

zbw Leibniz-Informationszentrum WirtschaftLeibniz Information Centre for Economics

Die ZBW räumt Ihnen als Nutzerin/Nutzer das unentgeltliche, räumlich unbeschränkte und zeitlich auf die Dauer des Schutzrechts beschränkte einfache Recht ein, das ausgewählte Werk im Rahmen der unte

Population, population density and technological change

Endogenous growth, Population growth, Population density, O3, J1, N3,

Still Overbanked and Unprofitable? Two Decades of German Banking

We analyze by means of descriptive evidence the widely held claims that Germany is overbanked and that German banks perform badly in an international comparison. We find that, despite a major merger wave, Germany continues to be more densely bank-populated than France, Italy, and the US. Measured by costincome ratios, non-interest income, and return on assets, German bank performance deteriorated continuously, being particularly affected by the economic slowdown in the very beginning of this century. This relatively poor performance is not driven by one particular banking pillar alone. Instead, all pillars perform badly in international comparison. At the same time, however, Germany's threepillar system exhibits considerable heterogeneity with regard to market structure and performance not only across commercial, savings and cooperative banking sectors but also within each respective pillar. (JEL G21

Structures and Trends in German Banking

In this paper, we investigate the claim that German banks are special compared to banks in other industrialised economies. We show that banks are of particular importance to the German economy—as financial intermediary, as lender to the corporate sector, and as part of the corporate governance system. Further, German banks are supervised by two supervisory institutions and have the highest deposit insurance in the world. And last but not least, German banks are numerous, perform poorly, and are part of a historically grown three-pillar system. Hence, German banks can indeed be characterised as unique when compared to other industrialised economies.Germany, Banks, Financial Systems, Corporate Governance, Three Pillar System, Bank Regulation

German Bank Lending During Financial Crises: A Bank Level Analysis

This paper studies German bank lending during the Asian and Russian crises, using a bank level data set from the Deutsche Bundesbank. Our aim is to gain more insight into the pattern of German bank lending during financial crises in emerging markets. We find that German banks reacted to the Asian crisis mainly by reallocating their portfolios among emerging markets. By contrast, the banks' behaviour during the Russian crisis is characterised by a general withdrawal from emerging markets. We find that the lending of large commercial banks was less stable than the lending of public sector banks during the Asian crisis. Differences were not as pronounced during the Russian crisis.bank lending; banking; contagion; currency crises; emerging markets crises; financial stability