Adolescent migration intentions and population change: A 20-year follow-up of Icelandic communities

© 2014 The Author. Sociologia Ruralis © 2014 European Society for Rural Sociology.Prior research has demonstrated that migration intentions are a moderate to strong predictor of individual-level migration across a wide range of countries, but their value for predicting community-level population change remains unclear. Analyses of census data 1972–2012 and a population survey of Icelandic adolescents in 1992 show that each percentage point difference in adolescent migration intentions is associated with 1.36 per cent change in the surveyed cohort and 1.25 per cent change in the total population over a twenty year period. Roughly half of the predictive value of migration intentions can be attributed to remoteness and long-term population change prior to the survey. On average, communities only experienced long-term population decline when more than half the adolescent population had intended to leave, but lower levels of adolescent migration intentions are associated with changes in the age composition. These results strongly suggest that adolescent migration intentions signal future population development.Peer reviewe

Innfæddir og aðfluttir andskotar: Áhrif uppruna og staðarsamsemdar á búsetuánægju á Norðurlandi

Publisher's version (útgefin grein)Flest byggðarlög á Íslandi einkennast af miklum hreyfanleika og háu hlutfalli aðfluttra íbúa. Innan við helmingur fullorðinna íbúa Akureyrar, Dalvíkur og Húsavíkur eru innfædd og aðeins um 14% íbúanna hafa aldrei búið annars staðar. Um helmingur þeirra hefur búið í ár eða meira á höfuðborgarsvæðinu, um þriðjungur annars staðar á Íslandi og nærri fjórðungur erlendis. Nærri allir innfæddir ibúar telja sig vera heimafólk, um tveir af hverjum þremur aðfluttum sem ólust þar upp og um helmingur þeirra sem þar hafa búið í meira en tíu ár. Flestir íbúarnir eru frekar eða mjög ánægðir með búsetu sína, en búsetuánægjan er mest meðal aðfluttra sem þar hafa búið í meira en tuttugu ár. Staðarsamsemd tengist búsetuánægju allra hópa nema þeirra sem búið hafa á viðkomandi stöðum í fimm ár eða minna. Í tvíkosta aðhvarfsgreiningu tengist búsetuánægja byggðarlagi, hjúskaparstöðu, erlendum bakgrunni, aldri og starfi sem hæfir menntun. Aðfluttir sem ólust upp á viðkomandi stöðum eru marktækt óánægðari með búsetu sína, en almennt traust, samstaða með öðrum íbúum og staðarsamsemd tengist meiri búsetuánægju. Niðurstöðurnar benda til þess að samfélagsbragur og byggðaþróun geti að hluta ráðist af því að allir íbúar séu viðurkenndir sem heimafólk.Most communities in Iceland are characterised by substantial mobility and a high proportion of in-migrants. This study shows that less than half the adult population of Akureyri, Dalvík and Húsavík in Northern Iceland are born in the community and only 14% have never lived elsewhere. About half have lived in the Reykjavík capital area for a year or more, about a third elsewhere in Iceland and almost a quarter has lived abroad. Almost all inborn residents regard themselves as locals, about two out of three in-migrants who are raised in the community and about half of those who have lived there for more than ten years. Place identity is associated with residential satisfaction except among those who have lived in the community for five years or less. Binary logistic regression shows that residential satisfaction is associated with community, marital status, foreign background, age and employment that fits education. In-migrants who were raised in the community are significantly less satisfied with their residence, but generalised trust, solidarity with other residents and place identity are associated with greater residential satisfaction. The results suggest that community atmosphere and regional development can partly be determined by acceptance of all residents as locals.Þessi rannsókn er hluti rannsóknaverkefnisins Búferlaflutningar á Íslandi sem unnið er á vegum Byggðastofnunar. Rannsóknin byggir á gögnum rannsóknaverkefnisins Samfélag og velferð á Norðurlandi sem Markus Meckl prófessor við Háskólann á Akureyri stýrði með með styrk frá Byggðarannsóknasjóði og Rannsóknasjóði KEA.Peer Reviewe

The effects of road infrastructure improvement on work travel in Northern Iceland

Work travel is an important alternative to out-migration in rural areas characterized by a limited range of jobs. The size of local labour markets is determined in part by geography and tradition, but advances in transportation have the potential to move people and communities closer together and transform established mindscapes. In Iceland, the dispersion of the rural population, a challenging terrain, and unpredictable weather has made road infrastructure improvements a key component in regional development strategies. A large-scale tunnel project completed in 2010 was intended to strengthen a vulnerable rural area on the northern coast and expand the urban labour market of the regional centre of Akureyri. Traffic surveys and resident surveys conducted before and after the tunnels show a substantial increase in 17-34. km work travel between rural communities. Work travel 61-77. km to and from the regional centre did however not increase. The average length of work travel has shortened but the increase in commuting yielded a net increase in total km commuted. The tunnels increased work travel irrespective of age and education, but increased work travel by women with children in the household in particular. The results suggest that large-scale road infrastructure improvements may substantially strengthen rural labour markets within a driving distance of 15-30. min, but may not extend the edge of micropolitan labour markets 45-60. min from an urban centre of less than 20 thousand inhabitants.Peer reviewe

The problem with low-prevalence of bullying

Publisher's version (útgefin grein)This paper tests the hypothesis of whether being bullied in an environment where bullying is infrequent decreases adolescents’ life satisfaction. Analyses were based on the international standard questionnaire from the 2005/2006 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study (HBSC). The sample included answers from 183,736 children in 35 Western, industrialized countries. Our results show that the negative effects of being bullied on the life satisfaction of individuals are stronger in schools and countries where bullying is less frequent. We therefore conclude that the prevalence of bullying in the students’ surroundings may act as a mediating variable explaining the relationship between bullying and life satisfaction.The study is supported by a grant from the University of Akureyri Research Fund.Peer Reviewe

University pathways of urban and rural migration in Iceland

Low levels of education have serious social, economic and cultural ramifications in rural areas. In many countries, regional universities have explicitly been built to educate the local population, create professional jobs and stimulate innovation. More recently, distance education has been developed to provide university education in rural regions and diminish brain drain towards urban centres. In this study, the pathways of Icelandic university graduates are traced from place of origin to residence five years after graduation. An overwhelming majority of local students at the national University of Iceland (UI) remain in the Reykjavík Capital Area after graduation, while others mostly emigrate abroad. Only about one in three UI students from regions beyond commuting distance return after graduation, while about half remain in the capital area and others mostly emigrate. The regional University of Akureyri (UNAK) in Northern Iceland is relatively successful in retaining graduates from North Central region, but on-campus students from regions beyond commuting distance from UNAK are no more likely to return after graduation than their UI counterparts. In sharp contrast, about three in four UNAK distance students remain in their region of origin after graduation. While regional universities may primarily strengthen regional centres, distance education has the potential to enhance educational levels in more distant exurban, micropolitan and rural areas.This work was supported by the Icelandic Rural Research Fund. The contribution of Ingolfur Arnarson, Kolbrun Osk Baldursdottir and Skuli Skulason in the collection of data and formulation of the research project is gratefully acknowledged.Peer Reviewe

Towards a digital adolescent society? The social structure of the Icelandic adolescent blogosphere

Post-print (lokaútgáfa höfunda)The adolescent production of blogs has created an adolescent public sphere that transcends both intimate circles of friends and the adolescent communities of specific schools or neighborhoods. Almost all 15-16 year old adolescents in Iceland regularly read blogs and many read blogs on a daily basis. Blogs by best friends and adolescents in the concrete adolescent community are most popular but a third of the population follows blogs that originate in the more abstract adolescent society. About three out of four girls and one out of three boys maintain their own blogpages and read blogs by other adolescents on a regular basis. Adolescents that write blogs are more involved in various activities associated with higher status in adolescent communities but lower status in the adult-controlled school community. The adolescent blogosphere may constitute an emergent digital adolescent society where inequalities in adolescent communities are reproduced.Peer Reviewe

The impact of school bullying on adolescent migration expectations in Iceland

Abstract Adolescent migration expectations are shaped by various background characteristics, social relations, and lifestyle considerations. However, the impact of negative social experiences in adolescent society on migration expectations received limited attention. Research on the social consequences of school bullying has nevertheless demonstrated that bullying often leads to social withdrawal and place avoidance. In this study, we examine the potential effects of being bullied in school on adolescent migration expectations in rural, exurban, and urban communities in Iceland. We find adolescents who are regularly bullied to be about twice as likely to expect to move within the country or abroad. Interestingly, there are no significant differences across the rural?urban continuum in this respect. The results are discussed in the context of prior research on migration intentions and the social consequences of bullying

Adolescent alcohol and cannabis use in Iceland 1995-2015

Introduction. Over the past two decades, alcohol consumption of Icelandic adolescents has decreased dramatically. The aim of this study was to quantify the extent of this reduction and compare it with the trend in cannabis use over a 20 year period and to identify possible explanations. Methods. We used data from the Icelandic participants to the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs study (collected via paper-and-pencil questionnaires in classrooms). The sample included all students in the 10th grade (54–89% response rate). Results. The percentage of participants who had never used alcohol during their lifetime rose from 20.8% in 1995 to 65.5% in 2015. Similarly, there was a decline in the proportion of students who had consumed alcohol 40 times or more, from 13.7% to 2.8%. During the same period, the number of students who had never used cannabis rose from 90.2% to 92.0%. In contrast, we found a small, but statistically significant, increase in the prevalence of those who had used cannabis 40 times or more, from 0.7% in 1995 to 2.3% in 2015. Parental monitoring increased markedly between 1995 and 2015,but availability of alcohol decreased. Perceived access to cannabis and youth attitudes towards substance use remained unchanged. Discussion. Although Iceland has enjoyed success in lowering alcohol use among adolescents over the past decades, and somewhat fewer claim to have ever tried cannabis, there has been a threefold increase among heavy users of cannabis. Increased parental monitoring and decreased availability of alcohol explain some of the changes seen.Embætti landlæknis (Icelandic Directorate of Health) KEA Háskólinn á Akureyri (University of Akureyri)Peer Reviewe

What's love got to do with it? Love-life gossip and migration intentions in rural Iceland

Curiosity and gossip often underline human activities and social behavior. Gossip can work as an instrument of power, controlling people's actions but can it actively play a role in migration intentions? Migration studies often focus on structural and economic factors that influence people's decisions to relocate, but socio-cultural factors such as gossip are not often included. Gossip is considered a fixed, given characteristic of small close-knit communities. Those communities often face the fact that fewer women decide upon residency in these locations. This research reveals the influence of personal gossip about love-life on out-migration intentions in small communities in Iceland, particularly for women. The research uses quantitative data from 56 villages in rural Iceland, collected as an online survey, examining migration and migration intentions. This paper examines if gossip in small close-knit rural communities can affect migration intentions and if this is particularly an issue for women. Our data show, that this is indeed the case. That is, the more gossip there is about people's love-life, the more likely they are to have migration intentions. However, we do not find a significant gender difference in migration intentions in regards to this intimate type of gossip

„Beint flug er næs“ : Svæðisbundin áhrif millilandaflugs frá Akureyri

Flugsamgöngur hafa mikil áhrif á efnahagslega, pól- itíska og menningarlega stöðu einstakra samfélaga. Á síðustu áratugum hefur fyrirkomulag flugs hefðbundinna flugfélaga um stóra tengiflugvelli skapað margvísleg sóknarfæri fyrir beint flug óhefðbundinna flugfélaga. Á Íslandi hefur millilandaflug um Keflavíkurflugvöll og rekstrarlíkan Icel- andair valdið umtalsverðum ójöfnuði milli landshluta í aðgengi að utan- landsferðum og hvatt til opnunar fleiri gátta inn í landið. Hér er fjörutíu ára saga millilandaflugs um Akureyrarflugvöll rakin í ljósi þróunar farþega- flugs á Vesturlöndum og mat lagt á áhrif einstakra flugfélaga. Niðurstöður sýna að slíkt flug hefur dregið verulega úr ójöfnuði í utanlandsferðum og aukið lífsgæði íbúanna. Um þriðjungur Akureyringa ferðaðist milli landa með Niceair á tíu mánaða tímabili 2022–23 og flugið jók einnig lífsgæði þeirra sem ekki nýttu sér það. Annars staðar á Norðurlandi eystra stuðlaði flug Niceair einnig að auknum utanlandsferðum og hafði nokkur áhrif á lífsgæði en áhrifin voru lítil á Norðurlandi vestra og Austurlandi. Flug Niceair til Kaupmannahafnar og Tenerife sýndi að heimamarkaðurinn á Norðurlandi eystra getur staðið undir reglubundnu millilandaflugi allan ársins hring en ferðir erlendra ferðamanna eru nauðsynlegar til að tryggja ásættanlega sætanýtingu á öllum leggjum. Að lokum er lagt heildarmat á samfélagsleg áhrif og framtíðarhorfur millilandaflugs um Akureyrarflug- völl.Air travel has significant economic, political, and cultural effects on communities. Over the past decades, the centralization of tradi- tional airlines at major hub airports has created various new opportunities for direct flights by other types of airlines. In Iceland, international flights through Keflavik Airport and the business model of Icelandair have resul- ted in considerable inequality in international travel between regions and spurred calls for more gateways into the country. In this paper, the forty- year history of international flights at Akureyri Airport is traced in the context of the development of passenger flights in Western countries, and the impact of different airlines is assessed. Results show that such flights have significantly reduced inequality in international travel and improved local quality of life. About one-third of Akureyri residents traveled int- ernationally with Niceair over ten months in 2022–23, and the flights also improved the quality of life for those who did not travel. Niceair also cont- ributed to increased international travel elsewhere in Northeast Iceland and had some impact on the quality of life, but the effects were negligible in Northwest and East Iceland. Niceair flights to Copenhagen and Tenerife demonstrated that the local market in Northeast Iceland can support re- gular international flights all year round, but foreign tourists are necessary to ensure acceptable load factors on all legs. Finally, the societal impact and future prospects of international flights through Akureyri Airport are assessed.Peer reviewe