Automated real time detection of solar wind shocks and consequences for the identification of SSC and SI events

Algorithms have been developed to automatically detect Earth bound shocks in the solar wind as measured by the ACE satellite. These involve simple threshold techniques and wavelet analysis. One practical application of this shock detection is that it can provide power companies with advanced warning of the potential for geomagnetically induced currents. The automatically detected shocks have been tested against published lists of known shocks and accuracy statistics are presented. Another use for automated shock detection is an aid to the preparation of lists of rapid variations: SSC and SI events. To contribute to the IAGA published list of rapid variations, as prepared by Ebro Observatory, BGS staff routinely identify, scale and classify the events recorded at the three UK magnetic observatories. This is carried out using the criteria from the Atlas of Rapid Variations (1959) and subsequent IAGA instructions. The usefulness of automated detection of solar wind shocks for this task is examined by testing these against lists of identified SSC and SI events

Differential Magnetometer Measurements of Geomagnetically Induced Currents in a Complex High Voltage Network

Space weather poses a hazard to grounded electrical infrastructure such as high voltage (HV) transformers, through the induction of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). Modelling GIC requires knowledge of the source magnetic field and the Earth's electrical conductivity structure, in order to calculate the geoelectric fields generated during magnetic storms, as well as knowledge of the topology of the HV network. Direct measurement of GICs at the ground neutral in substations is possible with a Hall‐effect probe, but such data are not widely available. To validate our HV network model, we use the Differential Magnetometer Method (DMM) to measure GICs in the 400 kV grid of Great Britain. We present DMM measurements for the 26 August 2018 storm at a site in eastern Scotland with up to 20 A recorded. The line GIC correlate well with Hall probe measurements at a local transformer, though they differ in amplitude by an order of magnitude (a maximum of ~2 A). We deployed a long‐period magnetotelluric (MT) instrument to derive the local impedance tensor which can be used to predict the geoelectric field from the recorded magnetic field. Using the MT‐derived electric field estimates, we model GICs within the network, accounting for the difference in magnitude between the DMM‐measured line currents and earth currents at the local substation. We find the measured line and earth GICs match the expected GICs from our network model, confirming that detailed knowledge of the complex network topology and its resistance parameters is essential for accurately computing GICs

A Global Climatological Model of Extreme Geomagnetic Field Fluctuations

This paper presents a multi-parameter global statistical model of extreme horizontal geomagnetic field fluctuations (dBH/dt), which are a useful input to models assessing the risk of geomagnetically induced currents in ground infrastructure. Generalised Pareto (GP) distributions were fitted to 1-minute measurements of |dBH/dt| from 125 magnetometers (with an average of 28 years of data per site) and return levels (RL) predicted for return periods (RP) between 5 and 500 years. Analytical functions characterise the profiles of maximum-likelihood GP model parameters and the derived RLs as a function of corrected geomagnetic latitude, λ. A sharp peak in both the GP shape parameter and the RLs is observed at |λ|=53° in both hemispheres, indicating a sharp equatorward limit of the auroral electrojet region. RLs also increase strongly in the dayside region poleward of the polar cusp (|λ|>75°) for RPs > 100 years. We describe how the GP model may be further refined by modelling the probability of occurrences of |dBH/dt| exceeding the 99.97th percentile as a function of month, magnetic local time, and the direction of the field fluctuation, dBH , and demonstrate that these patterns of occurrence align closely to known patterns of auroral substorm onsets, ULF Pc5 wave activity, and (storm) sudden commencement impacts. Changes in the occurrence probability profiles with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation reveal further details of the nature of the ionospheric currents driving extreme |dBH/dt| fluctuations, such as the changing location of the polar cusp and seasonal variations explained by the Russell-McPherron effect

Present day challenges in understanding the geomagnetic hazard to national power grids

Power grids and pipeline networks at all latitudes are known to be at risk from the natural hazard of geomagnetically induced currents. At a recent workshop in South Africa, UK and South African scientists and engineers discussed the current understanding of this hazard, as it affects major power systems in Europe and Africa. They also summarised, to better inform the public and industry, what can be said with some certainty about the hazard and what research is yet required to develop useful tools for geomagnetic hazard mitigation

Geomagnetically induced current model validation from New Zealand's South Island

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) during a space weather event have previously caused transformer damage in New Zealand. During the 2015 St. Patrick's Day Storm, Transpower NZ Ltd has reliable GIC measurements at 23 different transformers across New Zealand's South Island. These observed GICs show large variability, spatially and within a substation. We compare these GICs with those calculated from a modeled geolectric field using a network model of the transmission network with industry‐provided line, earthing, and transformer resistances. We calculate the modeled geoelectric field from the spectra of magnetic field variations interpolated from measurements during this storm and ground conductance using a thin‐sheet model. Modeled and observed GIC spectra are similar, and coherence exceeds the 95% confidence threshold, for most valid frequencies at 18 of the 23 transformers. Sensitivity analysis shows that modeled GICs are most sensitive to variation in magnetic field input, followed by the variation in land conductivity. The assumption that transmission lines follow straight lines or getting the network resistances exactly right is less significant. Comparing modeled and measured GIC time series highlights that this modeling approach is useful for reconstructing the timing, duration, and relative magnitude of GIC peaks during sudden commencement and substorms. However, the model significantly underestimates the magnitude of these peaks, even for a transformer with good spectral match. This is because of the limited range of frequencies for which the thin‐sheet model is valid and severely limits the usefulness of this modeling approach for accurate prediction of peak GICs

Validating a UK geomagnetically induced current model using differential magnetometer measurements

Extreme space weather can damage ground-based infrastructure such as power lines, railways and gas pipelines through geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). Modeling GICs requires knowledge about the source magnetic field and the electrical conductivity structure of the Earth to calculate ground electric fields during enhanced geomagnetic activity. The electric field, in combination with detailed information about the power grid topology, enable the modeling of GICs in high-voltage (HV) power lines. Directly monitoring GICs in substations is possible with a Hall probe, but scarcely realized in the UK. Therefore we deployed the differential magnetometer method (DMM) to measure GICs at 12 sites in the UK power grid. The DMM includes the installation of two fluxgate magnetometers, one directly under a power line affected by GICs, and one as a remote site. The difference in recordings of the magnetic field at each instrument yields an estimate of the GICs in the respective power line segment via the Biot-Savart law. We collected data across the UK in 2018–2022, monitoring HV line segments where previous research indicated high GIC risk. We recorded magnetometer data during several smaller storms that allow detailed analysis of our GIC model. For the ground electric field computations we used recent magnetotelluric (MT) measurements recorded close to the DMM sites. Our results show that there is strong agreement in both amplitude and signal shape between measured and modeled line and substation GICs when using our HV model and the realistic electric field estimates derived from MT data

Modeling geoelectric fields and geomagnetically induced currents around New Zealand to explore GIC in the South Island's electrical transmission network

Transformers in New Zealand's South Island electrical transmission network have been impacted by geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) during geomagnetic storms. We explore the impact of GIC on this network by developing a thin-sheet conductance (TSC) model for the region, a geoelectric field model, and a GIC network model. (The TSC is composed of a thin-sheet conductance map with underlying layered resistivity structure.) Using modeling approaches that have been successfully used in the United Kingdom and Ireland, we applied a thin-sheet model to calculate the electric field as a function of magnetic field and ground conductance. We developed a TSC model based on magnetotelluric surveys, geology, and bathymetry, modified to account for offshore sediments. Using this representation, the thin sheet model gave good agreement with measured impedance vectors. Driven by a spatially uniform magnetic field variation, the thin-sheet model results in electric fields dominated by the ocean-land boundary with effects due to the deep ocean and steep terrain. There is a strong tendency for the electric field to align northwest-southeast, irrespective of the direction of the magnetic field. Applying this electric field to a GIC network model, we show that modeled GIC are dominated by northwest-southeast transmission lines rather than east-west lines usually assumed to dominate

Transformer-level modeling of geomagnetically induced currents in New Zealand's South Island

During space weather events, geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) can be induced in high-voltage transmission networks, damaging individual transformers within substations. A common approach to modeling a transmission network has been to assume that every substation can be represented by a single resistance to Earth. We have extended that model by building a transformer-level network representation of New Zealand’s South Island transmission network. We represent every transformer winding at each earthed substation in the network by its known direct current resistance. Using this network representation significantly changes the GIC hazard assessment, compared to assessments based on the earlier assumption. Further, we have calculated the GIC flowing through a single phase of every individual transformer winding in the network. These transformer-level GIC calculations show variation in GICs between transformers within a substation due to transformer characteristics and connections. The transformer-level GIC calculations alter the hazard assessment by up to an order of magnitude in some places. In most cases the calculated GIC variations match measured variations in GIC flowing through the same transformers. This comparison with an extensive set of observations demonstrates the importance of transformer-level GIC calculations in models used for hazard assessment

Numerical simulations of four-quark and hybrid mesons in lattice quantum chromodynamics

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre- DSC:D66700/86 / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo