The Ethiopian Prospective Case

This chapter applies the process model for anticipating the incidence of ethnic conflict to the potential case of the emergence of ethnically based violence in Ethiopia. Therefore, in contrast to the two case studies presented previously, this case entails the use of the model to consider prospectively the likelihood of an ethnic mobilization turning violent. The chapter examines the case of Ethiopia from the perspective of what an intelligence analyst might conclude were she to use the process model. In essence, we look at the potential ethnic mobilization of the Amhara against the Tigray-dominated Ethiopian state structures in an attempt to alter the political arrangements governing Ethiopia more in favor of the Amhara. Data available as of 1997-1998 were used to conduct this analysis