Managing the Gulf of Papua Prawn Fishery: Sustainability, Maximum Returns and Cooperation between Commercial Fishing and Indigenous Fishing Communities

In many fisheries around the world, harvesting capacity is excessive and fish stocks are under threat. The Gulf of Papua prawn fishery (GPPF) presents a different set of management challenges. Limited property rights and fishing capacity, along with tension between a commercial fleet and indigenous fishing communities over access, have resulted in a relatively underdeveloped resource, conflict and considerable losses in economic returns. This article details the results of a joint project between the National Fisheries Authority (NFA) in Papua New Guinea and supporting Australian institutions on the management of the GPPF. The analysis indicates a catch target that maximises sustainable returns at biomass levels larger than biomass at maximum sustainable yield, thus protecting the resource, and a simple plan to share access to the inshore fishery. Both strategies are being implemented by the NFA. Together, they present one of the few very good examples of how to 'get things right' in the use and management of a fisheries resource, providing 'win-win' outcomes for Papua New Guinea

Rural Reform and Fiji's Indigenous Sugarcane Growers: An Application of Stochastic Frontier Analysis

We examine the performance of Fiji's indigenous sugarcane growers, measuring their technical efficiency using a stochastic frontier production function. Of particular interest are the cooperative or communal farming structures among new entrants into Fiji's sugar industry. These structures are emerging in response to government rationalisation policies in agricultural support-from individuals to groups-and the growing emphasis from the indigenous community on economic activity to reflect community requirements, values and imperatives. Our study finds that growers who are members of a cooperative group have higher levels of technical efficiency than growers who live in villages and that their performance is on par with galala or independent growers. Group structures are used as vehicles to centralise management decision-making and pool resources, thereby overcoming experience and capital accumulation constraints. The research also shows that these structures provide a vital mechanism for aligning cultural values and legitimising individual economic activity that has communal benefits. This finding is not only important for Fiji's struggling agricultural sector, it points a way forward for other South Pacific island nations and other countries where agricultural intensification is carried out on communally owned land

Coping with Nasty Surprises: Improving Risk Management in the Public Sector Using Simplified Bayesian Methods

Bayesian methods are particularly useful to informing decisions when information is sparse and ambiguous, but decisions involving risks must still be made in a timely manner. Given the utility of these approaches to public policy, this article considers the case for refreshing the general practice of risk management in governance by using a simplified Bayesian approach based on using raw data expressed as �natural frequencies�. This simplified Bayesian approach, which benefits from the technical advances made in signal processing and machine learning, is suitable for use by nonspecialists, and focuses attention on the incidence and potential implications of false positives and false negatives in the diagnostic tests used to manage risk. The article concludes by showing how graphical plots of the incidence of true positives relative to false positives in test results can be used to assess diagnostic capabilities in an organisation�and also inform strategies for capability improvement

Targets and Fisheries Management in the Asia and Pacific Region

Marine fisheries in the Asia and the Pacific region play an important role in global, regional and national economies. Many of the fisheries in the region are over-exploited, both biologically and economically.We focus on the use of appropriate fishery targets, and the importance of tying those targets to management objectives to overcome the usual and unwanted negative externalities that occur in ocean fisheries, the ones that result in substantial over-fishing. Of particular importance is the use of a maximum economic yield target for both short- and long-lived species. Maximum economic yield, when combined with appropriately designed marine protected areas, or marine reserves, not only provides maximum profitability and generally larger and more �conservationist� stocks of fish, but it also ensures a measure of resilience from stochastic shocks that may negatively impact the fishery. It remains the preferred target for most fisheries in the Asia and Pacific region

Three Pillars of Fisheries Policy

The causes of overfishing are reviewed along with deficiencies in top-down input-regulated fisheries management. An alternative is the three pillars of fisheries policy intended to ensure sustainable, economically viable fisheries and marine ecosystems. The first pillar are incentives that promote a long-term interest in both fisheries and marine ecosystems; the second are targets that account for the bioeconomics of fisheries; and the third, adaptive management practices, especially marine protected areas, that promote resilience against ecosystem disturbances. Collectively, the three pillars offer a practical and proven combination to �turn the tide� and help overcome the overexploitation prevalent in many of the world�s marine capture fisheries

Economic profit and optimal effort in the Western and Central Pacific tuna fisheries

Given the problems with open-access resources, as well as the effectiveness of modern fishing technology, there are few international fisheries (if any) that will not be over-exploited and less than fully profitable unless they are managed effectively

Aid and the Control of Tuberculosis in Papua New Guinea: Is Australia's Assistance Cost-Effective?

Australia supports the control of tuberculosis in Papua New Guinea for reasons of aid effectiveness and a desire to decrease the chance of importing tuberculosis to Australia. This paper analyses the case for this support using both cost-utility and cost-benefit analysis. We reach three conclusions. First, Australia directly benefits from its investment in controlling tuberculosis in Papua New Guinea, with a cost of $US 13 million (in 2012 prices) over 10 years earning a net present value of$US 22 million. Second, the longer and more extensive the basic directly observed short course therapy, or basic DOTS, to control tuberculosis, the higher are the returns for Australia. Finally, in addition to surpassing all commonly used benchmarks for being a cost-effective investment for Australia, a basic DOTS expansion also generates a health benefit for Papua New Guinea that compares well as one of the 'ten best health buys' in developing countries. � 2014 The Authors

Optimal dynamic water allocation: Irrigation extractions and environmental tradeoffs in the Murray River, Australia

A key challenge in managing semiarid basins, such as in the Murray-Darling in Australia, is to balance the trade-offs between the net benefits of allocating water for irrigated agriculture, and other uses, versus the costs of reduced surface flows for the environment. Typically, water planners do not have the tools to optimally and dynamically allocate water among competing uses. We address this problem by developing a general stochastic, dynamic programming model with four state variables (the drought status, the current weather, weather correlation, and current storage) and two controls (environmental release and irrigation allocation) to optimally allocate water between extractions and in situ uses. The model is calibrated to Australia's Murray River that generates: (1) a robust qualitative result that "pulse" or artificial flood events are an optimal way to deliver environmental flows over and above conveyance of base flows; (2) from 2001 to 2009 a water reallocation that would have given less to irrigated agriculture and more to environmental flows would have generated between half a billion and over 3 billion U.S. dollars in overall economic benefits; and (3) water markets increase optimal environmental releases by reducing the losses associated with reduced water diversions

Early Decision Indicators for Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Non-Endemic Countries

Disease managers face many challenges when deciding on the most effective control strategy to manage an outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD). Decisions have to be made under conditions of uncertainty and where the situation is continually evolving. In addition, resources for control are often limited. A modelling study was carried out to identify characteristics measurable during the early phase of a FMD outbreak that might be useful as predictors of the total number of infected places, outbreak duration and the total area under control. The study involved two modelling platforms in two countries (Australia and New Zealand) and encompassed a large number of incursion scenarios. Linear regression, classification and regression tree and boosted regression tree analyses were used to quantify the predictive value of a set of parameters on three outcome variables of interest: the total number of infected places, outbreak duration and the total area under control. The number of infected premises, number of pending culls, area under control, estimated dissemination ratio, and cattle density around the index herd at days 7, 14 and 21 following first detection were associated with each of the outcome variables. Regression models for the size of the area under control had the highest predictive value (R2 = 0.51-0.9) followed by the number of infected premises (R2 = 0.3-0.75) and outbreak duration (R2 = 0.28-0.57). Predictability improved at later time points in the outbreak. Predictive regression models using various cut-points at day 14 to define small and large outbreaks had positive predictive values of 0.85‒0.98 and negative predictive values of 0.52‒0.91, with 79‒97% of outbreaks correctly classified. On the strict assumption that each of the simulation models used in this study provide a realistic indication of the spread of FMD in animal populations our conclusion is that relatively simple metrics available early in a control program can be used to indicate the likely magnitude of an FMD outbreak under Australian and New Zealand conditions