Personal-bankruptcy cycles

This paper estimates the dynamics of the personal-bankruptcy rate over the business cycle by exploiting large cross-state variation in recessions and bankruptcies. We find that bankruptcy rates are significantly higher than normal during a recession and rise as a recession persists. After a recession ends, there is a hangover whereby bankruptcy rates begin to fall but remain above normal for several more quarters. Recovery periods see a strong bounce-back effect with bankruptcy rates significantly below normal for several quarters. Despite the significant increases in bankruptcies that occur during recessions, the largest contributor to rising bankruptcies during these periods has tended to be the longstanding upward trend.Bankruptcy ; Finance, Personal

A Conceptual Framework for Studying the Sources of Variation in Program Effects

Evaluations of public programs in many fields reveal that (1) different types of programs (or different versions of the same program) vary in their effectiveness, (2) a program that is effective for one group of people might not be effective for other groups of people, and (3) a program that is effective in one set of circumstances may not be effective in other circumstances. This paper presents a conceptual framework for research on such variation in program effects and the sources of this variation. The framework is intended to help researchers -- both those who focus mainly on studying program implementation and those who focus mainly on estimating program effects -- see how their respective pieces fit together in a way that helps to identify factors that explain variation in program effects and thereby support more systematic data collection on these factors. The ultimate goal of the framework is to enable researchers to offer better guidance to policymakers and program operators on the conditions and practices that are associated with larger and more positive effects

Personal-bankruptcy cycles

This paper estimates the dynamics of the personal-bankruptcy rate over the business cycle by exploiting large cross-state variation. We find that bankruptcy rates are significantly higher than normal during a recession and rise as a recession persists. After a recession ends, there is a hangover whereby bankruptcy rates begin to fall but remain above normal for several more quarters. Recovery periods see a strong bounce-back effect with bankruptcy rates significantly below normal for several quarters. Despite the significant increases in bankruptcies during recessions, the largest contributor to rising bankruptcies during these periods has tended to be the longstanding upward trend.Personal Bankruptcy, Recessions

Exclusion Processes with Internal States

We introduce driven exclusion processes with internal states that serve as generic transport models in various contexts, ranging from molecular or vehicular traffic on parallel lanes to spintronics. The ensuing non-equilibrium steady states are controllable by boundary as well as bulk rates. A striking polarization phenomenon accompanied by domain wall motion and delocalization is discovered within a mesoscopic scaling. We quantify this observation within an analytic description providing exact phase diagrams. Our results are confirmed by stochastic simulations.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures. Version as published in Phys. Rev. Let

A Framework for the Application of Robust Design Methods and Tools

Robust Design Methods (RDM) have become a powerful concept to design more reliable products. However, even though there are many tools available and have been discussed widely in academia, there is still confusion and doubts in the industry about the use and effectiveness of these methods. Mostly the problems experienced in industry are related to a poor application or knowledge of the methods by the companies (Hasenkamp, et Al, 2007). Based on the authors� experiences in working in development engineering, it has shown that also the phase of application of the specific tools and methods and what those can deliver are not always clear. Expectations to the output are sometimes misleading and imply the incorrect utilization of tools. A categorization of tools, methods and techniques typically associated with robust design methodology in the literature is provided in this paper in terms of purpose and deliverables of the individual tool or method. The majority of tools aims for optimizing an existing design solution or give an indication of how robust a design is, which requires a somewhat settled design. Furthermore, the categorization presented in this paper shows a lack in the methodology for tools in the area of robustness prediction in early design. This categorization clarifies the underlying premises and deliverables of RDM tools for professionals working with design processes and can serve as guidance for an organization how to structure its development process and how to make most efficient use of the existing tools. When to apply, what tool or method, for which purpose can be concluded. The paper also contributes with a framework for researchers to derive a generic landscape or database for RDM build upon the main premises and deliverables of each method