Decomposition of Time-Series by Level and Change

This article examines whether decomposing time series data into two parts – level and change – produces forecasts that are more accurate than those from forecasting the aggregate directly. Prior research found that, in general, decomposition reduced forecasting errors by 35%. An earlier study on decomposition into level and change found a forecast error reduction of 23%. The current study found that nowcasts consisting of a simple average of estimates from preliminary surveys and econometric models of the U.S. lodging market, improved the accuracy of final estimates of levels. Forecasts of change from an econometric model and the improved nowcasts reduced forecast errors by 29% when compared to direct forecasts of the aggregate. Forecasts of change from an extrapolation model and the improved nowcasts reduced forecast errors by 45%. On average then, the error reduction for this study was 37%

The Mundelein Encounter: A Catholic-Evangelical Model of Ecumenism

In the fall of 2013, a new initiative was undertaken in Chicago for Christian unity at “grass-roots” level. This initiative, which eventually became known as the Catholic-Evangelical Conversation (CEC), had its origin in the relationships of several individuals associated in different ways with the evangelical Lausanne Movement. The Lausanne vision, expressed in The Cape Town Commitment (https://www.lausanne.org/content/ctc/ctcommitment), animated the early discussions of John Armstrong, Norberto Saracco, and Douglas Birdsall, who shared their vision with Thomas A. Baima and Robert Barron. Individuals associated with the Lausanne Movement formed the early core of the evangelicals who became involved with the CEC. A second formative element of this conversation came from the vision of Pope Francis, who shares a growing need for unity for the sake of Christ’s mission. Individuals associated with the Archdiocese of Buenos Aries and Cardinal Bergoglio were early collaborators with the CEC. Both of these visions shape the direction of the CEC into the future

Activin promotes oocyte development in ovine preantral follicles in vitro

Activins have been implicated as important regulating factors for many reproductive processes. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of activin A on the development of ovine preantral follicles in vitro. Mechanically isolated preantral follicles (161 ± 2 microm) were cultured for 6 days in the presence of human recombinant activin A (0, 10 and 100 ng/ml). Half of the medium was replaced every second day and follicle diameters were measured. Conditioned medium was subsequently analysed for oestradiol content using a delayed enhancement lanthanide fluorometric immunoassay (DELFIA). At the end of the culture period, follicles were fixed and processed for histology, after which oocyte diameter and granulosa cell death were measured. There was significant follicle growth over 6 days in all groups (p < 0.001). Activin, at both concentrations, increased follicle growth over control levels by Day 6 (p < 0.05). Oocyte diameters were also significantly increased by Day 6 of culture in all groups (p < 0.05), with 100 ng/ml activin increasing oocyte diameter over control levels (p < 0.05). Activin, at both concentrations, increased oestradiol production on Day 2 of culture, but this increase was not sustained during the culture period. Moreover, activin did not have any effect on antrum formation or follicle survival. In conclusion, activin promoted ovine preantral follicle and oocyte growth in vitro, but did not accelerate follicle differentiation over a six-day culture period. These results support a paracrine role for activin A during early oocyte and follicular development

Racial Differences in Surgeons and Hospitals for Endometrial Cancer Treatment

PURPOSE: To determine whether (1) black and white women with endometrial cancer were treated by different surgical specialties and in different types of hospitals and (2) differences in specialty and hospital type contributed to racial differences in survival. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of 12,307 women aged 65 years and older who underwent surgical treatment of endometrial cancer between 1991 and 1999 in the 11 Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results registries. RESULTS: Black women were more likely to have a gynecologic oncologist to perform their surgery and to be treated at hospitals that were higher volume, larger, teaching, National Cancer Institute centers, urban, and where a greater proportion of the surgeries were performed by a gynecologic oncologist. In unadjusted models, black women were over twice as likely as white women who died because of cancer (hazards ratio [HR]: 2.33), but nearly all of the initial racial difference in survival was explained by differences in cancer stage, and grade as well as age and comorbidities at presentation (adjusted HR: 1.10). Surgical specialty was not associated with survival and, of the hospital characteristics studied, only surgical volume was associated with survival (P \u3c 0.005). Adjusting for hospital characteristics did not change the racial difference in survival (HR: 1.10). Adjustment for the specific hospital where the woman was treated eliminated the association between race and surgeon specialty and slightly widened the residual racial difference in survival (HR: 1.23 vs. 1.10). CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to several studies suggesting that blacks with breast cancer, colon cancer, or cardiovascular disease are treated in hospitals with lower quality indicators, black women diagnosed with endometrial cancer in Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results regions between 1991 and 1999 were more likely to be treated by physicians with advanced training and in high volume, large, urban, teaching hospitals. However, except for a modest association with hospital surgical volume, these provider and hospital characteristics were largely unrelated to survival for women with endometrial cancer. The great majority of the difference in survival was explained by differences in tumor and clinical characteristics at presentation

Einstein metrics in projective geometry

It is well known that pseudo-Riemannian metrics in the projective class of a given torsion free affine connection can be obtained from (and are equivalent to) the solutions of a certain overdetermined projectively invariant differential equation. This equation is a special case of a so-called first BGG equation. The general theory of such equations singles out a subclass of so-called normal solutions. We prove that non-degerate normal solutions are equivalent to pseudo-Riemannian Einstein metrics in the projective class and observe that this connects to natural projective extensions of the Einstein condition.Comment: 10 pages. Adapted to published version. In addition corrected a minor sign erro

Comparative susceptibility of mosquito populations in North Queensland, Australia to oral infection with dengue virus.

Dengue is the most prevalent arthropod-borne virus, with at least 40% of the world's population at risk of infection each year. In Australia, dengue is not endemic, but viremic travelers trigger outbreaks involving hundreds of cases. We compared the susceptibility of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes from two geographically isolated populations to two strains of dengue virus serotype 2. We found, interestingly, that mosquitoes from a city with no history of dengue were more susceptible to virus than mosquitoes from an outbreak-prone region, particularly with respect to one dengue strain. These findings suggest recent evolution of population-based differences in vector competence or different historical origins. Future genomic comparisons of these populations could reveal the genetic basis of vector competence and the relative role of selection and stochastic processes in shaping their differences. Lastly, we show the novel finding of a correlation between midgut dengue titer and titer in tissues colonized after dissemination

Criteria for the diagnosis of corticobasal degeneration

Current criteria for the clinical diagnosis of pathologically confirmed corticobasal degeneration (CBD) no longer reflect the expanding understanding of this disease and its clinicopathologic correlations. An international consortium of behavioral neurology, neuropsychology, and movement disorders specialists developed new criteria based on consensus and a systematic literature review. Clinical diagnoses (early or late) were identified for 267 nonoverlapping pathologically confirmed CBD cases from published reports and brain banks. Combined with consensus, 4 CBD phenotypes emerged: corticobasal syndrome (CBS), frontal behavioral-spatial syndrome (FBS), nonfluent/agrammatic variant of primary progressive aphasia (naPPA), and progressive supranuclear palsy syndrome (PSPS). Clinical features of CBD cases were extracted from descriptions of 209 brain bank and published patients, providing a comprehensive description of CBD and correcting common misconceptions. Clinical CBD phenotypes and features were combined to create 2 sets of criteria: more specific clinical research criteria for probable CBD and broader criteria for possible CBD that are more inclusive but have a higher chance to detect other tau-based pathologies. Probable CBD criteria require insidious onset and gradual progression for at least 1 year, age at onset ≥50 years, no similar family history or known tau mutations, and a clinical phenotype of probable CBS or either FBS or naPPA with at least 1 CBS feature. The possible CBD category uses similar criteria but has no restrictions on age or family history, allows tau mutations, permits less rigorous phenotype fulfillment, and includes a PSPS phenotype. Future validation and refinement of the proposed criteria are needed

Examination of the effect of tool mass and work postures on perceived exertion for a screw driving task

Eighteen subjects with industrial work experience drove screws into perforated sheet metal at three vertical (64, 114 and 165 cm) locations with a pistol-shaped tool, and at two horizontal (13 and 63 cm) work locations using an in-line tool. Both air-powered tools were varied in mass (1, 2 and 3 kg). Subjects drove screws using each tool mass at all work locations. After driving 25 screws at a particular work location/tool mass combination, subjects assessed their perceived exertion for that condition using the Borg ten-point ratio rating scale and completed a body part discomfort survey. Both tool mass and work location were significant factors in determining the ratings. As tool mass increased, so did the ratings of perceived exertion (18% to 100%). The lowest ratings of perceived exertion were at 114 cm on the vertical surface and at 13 cm on the horizontal surface. For the vertical surface, the body part discomfort data revealed that the low back and the right arm were often cited as uncomfortable at 64 cm, the right arm was identified as uncomfortable at 114 cm, and the right arm and the chest were cited as uncomfortable at 165 cm. For the horizontal surface, at both 13 cm and 63 cm, the neck and the right arm were identified as uncomfortable.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/30647/1/0000289.pd

The Grizzly, February 16, 2017

First Semester of Philadelphia Experience a Success • College Unveils Construction Plans for The Commons • Peer Advocates Prepare for the Vagina Monologues • Q&A with Author and Activist • By the Way, Meet Vera Stark Tackles Race in the Glamorous World of 1930s Hollywood • History Professor Hugh Clark Reflects on Time at Ursinus • Opinions: La La Land Delivers on Promise of Nostalgia; Graduating Early Should Not Translate to Exclusion • Golf Ready to Swing Into Spring • Three Champions Crowned; Wrestling Advances to Regionalshttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/grizzlynews/1660/thumbnail.jp

The cell fate determinant Llgl1 influences HSC fitness and prognosis in AML

A unique characteristic of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) is the ability to self-renew. Several genes and signaling pathways control the fine balance between self-renewal and differentiation in HSCs and potentially also in leukemia stem cells. Recently, studies have shed light on developmental molecules and evolutionarily conserved signals as regulators of stem cells in hematopoiesis and leukemia. In this study, we provide evidence that the cell fate determinant Llgl1 (lethal giant larvae homolog 1) plays an important role in regulation of HSCs. Loss of Llgl1 leads to an increase in HSC numbers that show increased repopulation capacity and competitive advantage after transplantation. This advantage increases upon serial transplantation or when stress is applied to HSCs. Llgl1−/− HSCs show increased cycling but neither exhaust nor induce leukemia in recipient mice. Llgl1 inactivation is associated with transcriptional repression of transcription factors such as KLF4 (Krüppel-like factor 4) and EGR1 (early-growth-response 1) that are known inhibitors of HSC self-renewal. Decreased Llgl1 expression in human acute myeloid leukemia (AML) cells is associated with inferior patient survival. Thus, inactivation of Llgl1 enhances HSC self-renewal and fitness and is associated with unfavorable outcome in human AML