Finite-element simulations of earthquakes

This thesis discusses simulations of earthquake ground motions using prescribed ruptures and dynamic failure. Introducing sliding degrees of freedom led to an innovative technique for numerical modeling of earthquake sources. This technique allows efficient implementation of both prescribed ruptures and dynamic failure on an arbitrarily oriented fault surface. Off the fault surface the solution of the three-dimensional, dynamic elasticity equation uses well known finite-element techniques. We employ parallel processing to efficiently compute the ground motions in domains containing millions of degrees of freedom. Using prescribed ruptures we study the sensitivity of long-period near-source ground motions to five earthquake source parameters for hypothetical events on a strike-slip fault (Mw 7.0 to 7.1) and a thrust fault (Mw 6.6 to 7.0). The directivity of the ruptures creates large displacement and velocity pulses in the ground motions in the forward direction. We found a good match between the severity of the shaking and the shape of the near-source factor from the 1997 Uniform Building Code for strike-slip faults and thrust faults with surface rupture. However, for blind thrust faults the peak displacement and velocities occur up-dip from the region with the peak near-source factor. We assert that a simple modification to the formulation of the near-source factor improves the match between the severity of the ground motion and the shape of the near-source factor. For simulations with dynamic failure on a strike-slip fault or a thrust fault, we examine what constraints must be imposed on the coefficient of friction to produce realistic ruptures under the application of reasonable shear and normal stress distributions with depth. We found that variation of the coefficient of friction with the shear modulus and the depth produces realistic rupture behavior in both homogeneous and layered half-spaces. Furthermore, we observed a dependence of the rupture speed on the direction of propagation and fluctuations in the rupture speed and slip rate as the rupture encountered changes in the stress field. Including such behavior in prescribed ruptures would yield more realistic ground motions

Long-Period Building Response to Earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area

This article reports a study of modeled, long-period building responses to ground-motion simulations of earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area. The earthquakes include the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake, a magnitude 7.8 simulation of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, and two hypothetical magnitude 7.8 northern San Andreas fault earthquakes with hypocenters north and south of San Francisco. We use the simulated ground motions to excite nonlinear models of 20-story, steel, welded moment-resisting frame (MRF) buildings. We consider MRF buildings designed with two different strengths and modeled with either ductile or brittle welds. Using peak interstory drift ratio (IDR) as a performance measure, the stiffer, higher strength building models outperform the equivalent more flexible, lower strength designs. The hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake with hypocenter north of San Francisco produces the most severe ground motions. In this simulation, the responses of the more flexible, lower strength building model with brittle welds exceed an IDR of 2.5% (that is, threaten life safety) on 54% of the urban area, compared to 4.6% of the urban area for the stiffer, higher strength building with ductile welds. We also use the simulated ground motions to predict the maximum isolator displacement of base-isolated buildings with linear, single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) models. For two existing 3-sec isolator systems near San Francisco, the design maximum displacement is 0.5 m, and our simulations predict isolator displacements for this type of system in excess of 0.5 m in many urban areas. This article demonstrates that a large, 1906-like earthquake could cause significant damage to long-period buildings in the San Francisco Bay Area

Near-Source Ground Motions from Simulations of Sustained Intersonic and Supersonic Fault Ruptures

We examine the long-period near-source ground motions from simulations of M 7.4 events on a strike-slip fault using kinematic ruptures with rupture speeds that range from subshear speeds through intersonic speeds to supersonic speeds. The strong along-strike shear-wave directivity present in scenarios with subshear rupture speeds disappears in the scenarios with ruptures propagating faster than the shear-wave speed. Furthermore, the maximum horizontal displacements and velocities rotate from generally fault-perpendicular orientations at subshear rupture speeds to generally fault-parallel orientations at supersonic rupture speeds. For rupture speeds just above the shear-wave speed, the orientations are spatially heterogeneous as a result of the random nature of our assumed slip model. At locations within a few kilometers of the rupture, the time histories of the polarization of the horizontal motion provide a better diagnostic with which to gauge the rupture speed than the orientation of the peak motion. Subshear ruptures are associated with significant fault-perpendicular motion before fault-parallel motion close to the fault; supershear ruptures are associated with fault-perpendicular motion after significant fault-parallel motion. Consistent with previous studies, we do not find evidence for prolonged supershear rupture in the long-period (>2 sec) ground motions from the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake. However, we are unable to resolve the issue of whether a limited portion of the rupture (approximately 10 km in length) propagated faster than the shear-wave speed. Additionally, a recording from the 2002 Denali fault earthquake does appear to be qualitatively consistent with locally supershear rupture. Stronger evidence for supershear rupture in earthquakes may require very dense station coverage in order to capture these potentially distinguishing traits

Effects of Fault Dip and Slip Rake Angles on Near-Source Ground Motions: Why Rupture Directivity Was Minimal in the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Earthquake

We study how the fault dip and slip rake angles affect near-source ground velocities and displacements as faulting transitions from strike-slip motion on a vertical fault to thrust motion on a shallow-dipping fault. Ground motions are computed for five fault geometries with different combinations of fault dip and rake angles and common values for the fault area and the average slip. The nature of the shear-wave directivity is the key factor in determining the size and distribution of the peak velocities and displacements. Strong shear-wave directivity requires that (1) the observer is located in the direction of rupture propagation and (2) the rupture propagates parallel to the direction of the fault slip vector. We show that predominantly along-strike rupture of a thrust fault (geometry similar in the Chi-Chi earthquake) minimizes the area subjected to large-amplitude velocity pulses associated with rupture directivity, because the rupture propagates perpendicular to the slip vector; that is, the rupture propagates in the direction of a node in the shear-wave radiation pattern. In our simulations with a shallow hypocenter, the maximum peak-to-peak horizontal velocities exceed 1.5 m/sec over an area of only 200 km^2 for the 30°-dipping fault (geometry similar to the Chi-Chi earthquake), whereas for the 60°- and 75°-dipping faults this velocity is exceeded over an area of 2700 km^2. These simulations indicate that the area subjected to large-amplitude long-period ground motions would be larger for events of the same size as Chi-Chi that have different styles of faulting or a deeper hypocenter

Effects of consecutive workdays and days off on low back pain, fatigue and stress:Prospective cohort study among warehouse and construction workers

Objectives Limited knowledge exists about day-to-day changes in physical and mental symptoms in warehouse and construction workers. This study investigated the associations between consecutive workdays and days off with low back pain (LBP) intensity, bodily fatigue and mental stress. Methods Participants (n=224) received daily questions for 21 days about LBP, fatigue, stress (outcome, 0-10 scales), and workdays and days off (exposure). We tested associations between 1-3 workdays (n=148) and 1-2 days off (n=158) with LBP intensity, bodily fatigue and mental stress after work and the following morning using linear mixed models with repeated measures controlling for relevant confounders. Results Consecutive workdays led to progressively increased LBP intensity, with three workdays increasing LBP intensity by 1.76 (95% CI 1.48 to 2.03) points. Bodily fatigue and mental stress increased after one workday (2.06 (95% CI 1.80 to 2.32) and 0.97 (95% CI 0.77 to 1.17) points, respectively) and remained stable for three workdays. After 1 day off, bodily fatigue and mental stress decreased -1.82 (95% CI -2.03 to -1.61) and -0.88 (95% CI -1.05 to -0.71) points, respectively, without decreasing further. In contrast, LBP intensity decreased progressively -1.09 (95% CI -1.27 to -0.91) and -1.45 (95% CI -1.67 to -1.24) points after 1 and 2 days off, respectively. Conclusions Workdays and days off affected the outcome variables differently. LBP intensity progressively increased with consecutive workdays, while workers needed 2 days off to recover. This study provides valuable knowledge about how to organise the workweek to prevent LBP, fatigue and stress, potentially reducing labour market withdrawal.</p

Dynamic Earthquake Ruptures in the Presence of Lithostatic Normal Stresses: Implications for Friction Models and Heat Production

We simulate dynamic ruptures on a strike-slip fault in homogeneous and layered half-spaces and on a thrust fault in a layered half-space. With traditional friction models, sliding friction exceeds 50% of the fault normal compressive stress, and unless the pore pressures approach the lithostatic stress, the rupture characteristics depend strongly on the depth, and sliding generates large amounts of heat. Under application of reasonable stress distributions with depth, variation of the effective coefficient of friction with the square root of the shear modulus and the inverse of the depth creates distributions of stress drop and fracture energy that produce realistic rupture behavior. This ad hoc friction model results in (1) low-sliding friction at all depths and (2) fracture energy that is relatively independent of depth. Additionally, friction models with rate-weakening behavior (which form pulselike ruptures) appear to generate heterogeneity in the distributions of final slip and shear stress more effectively than those without such behavior (which form cracklike ruptures). For surface rupture on a thrust fault, the simple slip-weakening friction model, which lacks rate-weakening behavior, accentuates the dynamic interactions between the seismic waves and the rupture and leads to excessively large ground motions on the hanging wall. Waveforms below the center of the fault (which are associated with waves radiated to teleseismic distances) indicate that source inversions of thrust events may slightly underestimate the slip at shallow depths

Using singleton densities to detect recent selection in Bos taurus

Many quantitative traits are subject to polygenic selection, where several genomic regions undergo small, simultaneous changes in allele frequency that collectively alter a phenotype. The widespread availability of genome data, along with novel statistical techniques, has made it easier to detect these changes. We apply one such method, the “Singleton Density Score” (SDS), to the Holstein breed of Bos taurus to detect recent selection (arising up to around 740 years ago). We identify several genes as candidates for targets of recent selection, including some relating to cell regulation, catabolic processes, neural‐cell adhesion and immunity. We do not find strong evidence that three traits that are important to humans—milk protein content, milk fat content, and stature—have been subject to directional selection. Simulations demonstrate that because B. taurus recently experienced a population bottleneck, singletons are depleted so the power of SDS methods is reduced. These results inform on which genes underlie recent genetic change in B. taurus, while providing information on how polygenic selection can be best investigated in future studies