ECONOMIES OF SCALE IN THE GREENHOUSE FLORICULTURE INDUSTRY

Crop Production/Industries,

ECONOMIC THRESHOLDS: AN APPLICATION TO FLORICULTURE

This paper introduces conjunctive optimal pest management and production decision rules applied to the floriculture industry. A grower is faced with optimally controlling multiple pests and applying cultural controls to maximize the expected net present value of benefits within a discrete time framework, subject to biological and marketing constraints.Crop Production/Industries,

OPTIMAL PEST CONTROL IN FLORICULTURE PRODUCTION OF ORNAMENTAL CROPS

We develop a conceptual bioeconomic model of floriculture production, wherein optimal decision rules depend on an intertemporal economic objective to maximize profits subject to economic and biological processes. The necessary conditions highlight intertemporal tradeoffs between aesthetic benefits and expected future net benefits of insect stocks, which have important policy implications.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Autoimmune thyroiditis as a risk factor for stroke: a historical cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of autoimmune thyroiditis (AIT) on risk of stroke and to assess whether any increased risk (1) varied by AIT duration, and (2) was independent of classic cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: This was a large historical cohort study using data from The Health Improvement Network Database. Rates of first stroke during follow-up in thyroxine-treated patients with AIT (n = 34,907) were compared with those in matched individuals without AIT (n = 149,632) using random-effects Poisson regression models. RESULTS: There was strong evidence for a slightly increased risk of stroke in patients with AIT (adjusted rate ratio = 1.10, 95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.20). The observed increase was partly independent of cardiovascular risk factors. Higher effect sizes were identified in the first year after AIT diagnosis (rate ratio = 1.33, 95% confidence interval: 1.14-1.56) but not in the long-term, consistent with a residual effect of hypothyroidism. CONCLUSION: Our results support the hypothesis of a slightly increased risk of stroke in patients with AIT. The higher effect size found soon after AIT diagnosis suggests an increased cardiovascular risk due to thyroid-hormone deficiency rather than a cumulative effect of autoimmune pathology. Better screening and early treatment of patients with asymptomatic hypothyroid AIT could help reduce excess risk of stroke in the first year after diagnosis

Assessing recording delays in general practice records to inform near real-time vaccine safety surveillance using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD).

PURPOSE: Near real-time vaccine safety surveillance (NRTVSS) is an option for post-licensure vaccine safety assessment. NRTVSS requires timely recording of outcomes in the database used. Our main objective was to examine recording delays in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) for outcomes of interest for vaccine safety to inform the feasibility of NRTVSS using these data. We also evaluated completeness of recording and further assessed reporting delays for hospitalized events in CPRD. METHODS: We selected Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), Bell's palsy (BP), optic neuritis (ON) and febrile seizures (FS), from January 2005 to June 2014. We assessed recording delays (e.g. due to feedback from specialist referral) in stand-alone CPRD by comparing the event and system dates and excluding delays >1 year. We used linked CPRD-hospitalization data to further evaluate delays and completeness of recording in CPRD. RESULTS: Among 51 220 patients for the stand-alone CPRD analysis (GBS: n = 830; BP: n = 12 602; ON: n = 1720; and FS: n = 36 236), most had a record entered within 1 month of the event date (GBS: 73.6%; BP: 93.4%; ON: 76.2%; and FS: 85.6%). A total of 13 482 patients, with a first record in hospital, were included for the analysis of linked data (GBS: n = 678; BP: n = 4060; ON: n = 485; and FS: n = 8321). Of these, <50% had a record in CPRD after 1 year (GBS: 41.3%; BP: 22.1%; ON: 22.4%; and FS: 41.8%). CONCLUSION: This work shows that most diagnoses in CPRD for the conditions examined were recorded with delays of ≤30 days, making NRTVSS possible. The pattern of delays was condition-specific and could be used to adjust for delays in the NRTVSS analysis. Despite low sensitivity of recording, implementing NRTVSS in CPRD is worthwhile and could be carried out, at least on a trial basis, for events of interest. © 2017 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology & Drug Safety Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Chronic kidney disease as a risk factor for acute community-acquired infections in high-income countries: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: A systematic review of the association of predialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD) with the incidence of acute, community-acquired infections. DESIGN: We searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane databases (inception to 16 January 2014) for studies analysing the association of predialysis kidney disease with the incidence of acute, community-acquired urinary tract infection (UTI), lower respiratory tract or central nervous system infections or sepsis. Studies were required to include at least 30 participants with and without kidney disease. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Community-based populations of adults in high-income countries. OUTCOME MEASURES: Acute, community-acquired UTI, lower respiratory tract or central nervous system infections or sepsis. RESULTS: We identified 14 eligible studies. Estimates from two studies lacked 95% CIs and SEs. The remaining 12 studies yielded 17 independent effect estimates. Only three studies included infections managed in the community. Quality assessment revealed that probable misclassification of kidney disease status and poor adjustment for confounding were common. There was evidence from a few large high-quality studies of a graded association between predialysis CKD stage and hospitalisation for infection. One study found an interaction with age, with a declining effect of CKD on infection risk as age increased. There was evidence of between-studies heterogeneity (I(2)=96.5%, p<0.001) which persisted in subgroup analysis, and thus meta-analysis was not performed. CONCLUSIONS: Predialysis kidney disease appears to be associated with increased risk of severe infection. Whether predialysis kidney disease increases the susceptibility to infections and whether age modifies this association remains unclear

Implementing near real-time vaccine safety surveillance using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD).

INTRODUCTION: Near real-time vaccine safety surveillance (NRTVSS) using electronic health records is increasingly used to rapidly detect vaccine safety signals. NRTVSS has not been fully implemented in the UK. We assessed the feasibility of implementing this surveillance using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). METHODS: We selected seasonal influenza vaccine/Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) as an example of a rare outcome and measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine/febrile seizures as a positive control. For influenza/GBS we implemented a system for the 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 influenza seasons; for MMR/seizures the surveillance period was July 2014-June 2015. We used the continuous Poisson-based maximized sequential probability ratio test (PMaxSPRT), comparing observed-to-expected events, for both pairs. We calculated an age-sex-adjusted rate using 5years of historic data and used this rate to calculate the expected number of events in pre-specified post-vaccination risk-window (GBS: 0-42days, seizures: 6-21days). For MMR/seizures we also implemented the system using the Binominal-based maximized sequential probability ratio test (BMaxSPRT). For this, we compared seizures in the risk-window (6-21days) to a control window (0-5 and 22-32days). Delays in recording outcomes influence the data available, so we adjusted the expected number of events using a historical distribution of delays in recording GBS/febrile seizures. Analyses were run using data up to each CPRD monthly release. We also performed power calculations for detecting increases in relative risk (RR) from 1.5 to 10. RESULTS: For influenza/GBS we implemented a system in both seasons with no signal. Power to detect a signal was >80% for RR≥4. For MMR/seizures we were able to identify a signal with PMaxSPRT but not with BMaxSPRT. Power≥80% for RR≥2.5 for both tests. CONCLUSION: CPRD is a potential data source to implement NRTVSS to exclude large increases in the risk of rare outcomes after seasonal influenza and lower increases in risk for more frequent outcomes

A Potential Role for the Interaction of Wolbachia Surface Proteins with the Brugia malayi Glycolytic Enzymes and Cytoskeleton in Maintenance of Endosymbiosis

The human filarial parasite Brugia malayi harbors an endosymbiotic bacterium of the genus Wolbachia. The Wolbachia represent an attractive target for the control of filarial induced disease as elimination of the bacteria affects molting, reproduction and survival of the worms. The molecular basis for the symbiotic relationship between Wolbachia and their filarial hosts has yet to be elucidated. To identify proteins involved in this process, we focused on the Wolbachia surface proteins (WSPs), which are known to be involved in bacteria-host interactions in other bacterial systems. Two WSP-like proteins (wBm0152 and wBm0432) were localized to various host tissues of the B. malayi female adult worms and are present in the excretory/secretory products of the worms. We provide evidence that both of these proteins bind specifically to B. malayi crude protein extracts and to individual filarial proteins to create functional complexes. The wBm0432 interacts with several key enzymes involved in the host glycolytic pathway, including aldolase and enolase. The wBm0152 interacts with the host cytoskeletal proteins actin and tubulin. We also show these interactions in vitro and have verified that wBm0432 and B. malayi aldolase, as well as wBm0152 and B. malayi actin, co-localize to the vacuole surrounding Wolbachia. We propose that both WSP protein complexes interact with each other via the aldolase-actin link and/or via the possible interaction between the host's enolase and the cytoskeleton, and play a role in Wolbachia distribution during worm growth and embryogenesis. © 2013 Melnikow et al