Polls, Coalition Signals, and Strategic Voting: An Experimental Investigation of Perceptions and Effects

The paper investigates how poll information and coalition signals affect strategic voting, defined as casting a vote for a party other than the most preferred party to better influence the election outcome. In particular if the outcome of an election is perceived to be close, voters in multi-party systems with proportional representation and coalition governments should have an incentive to cast a vote for the party that best influences the formation of the next government. The study focuses in particular on voters’ attention to and perception of polls and coalition signals sent by parties before elections. The study used an innovative design that embedded a laboratory experiment in two real election campaigns, allowing the manipulation of poll results and coalition signals in a realistic environment. The findings suggest that political sophistication plays a crucial role for the accurate perception of polls and strategic voting. Coalition signals are found to have a surprisingly strong effect on (apparently) strategic voting.

Physical Representation-based Predicate Optimization for a Visual Analytics Database

Querying the content of images, video, and other non-textual data sources requires expensive content extraction methods. Modern extraction techniques are based on deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and can classify objects within images with astounding accuracy. Unfortunately, these methods are slow: processing a single image can take about 10 milliseconds on modern GPU-based hardware. As massive video libraries become ubiquitous, running a content-based query over millions of video frames is prohibitive. One promising approach to reduce the runtime cost of queries of visual content is to use a hierarchical model, such as a cascade, where simple cases are handled by an inexpensive classifier. Prior work has sought to design cascades that optimize the computational cost of inference by, for example, using smaller CNNs. However, we observe that there are critical factors besides the inference time that dramatically impact the overall query time. Notably, by treating the physical representation of the input image as part of our query optimization---that is, by including image transforms, such as resolution scaling or color-depth reduction, within the cascade---we can optimize data handling costs and enable drastically more efficient classifier cascades. In this paper, we propose Tahoma, which generates and evaluates many potential classifier cascades that jointly optimize the CNN architecture and input data representation. Our experiments on a subset of ImageNet show that Tahoma's input transformations speed up cascades by up to 35 times. We also find up to a 98x speedup over the ResNet50 classifier with no loss in accuracy, and a 280x speedup if some accuracy is sacrificed.Comment: Camera-ready version of the paper submitted to ICDE 2019, In Proceedings of the 35th IEEE International Conference on Data Engineering (ICDE 2019

Strategic Voting in Multiparty Systems: A Group Experiment

The paper tests the theory of strategic voting for multiparty systems with proportional representation and coalition governments at the micro-level. The study focuses in particular on the question whether participation in repeated elections allows voters to learn from experience and enables them to optimize their decision behavior. An economic group experiment with decision scenarios of varying degrees of difficulty was used to test decision making at both the individual and group level. The results suggest that a majority of voters were able to pursue successful decision strategies and that the difficulty of the decision scenarios affected the voting performance of the participants as expected. However, a learning effect is not supported by the data.

Graph-Facilitated Resonant Mode Counting in Stochastic Interaction Networks

Oscillations in a stochastic dynamical system, whose deterministic counterpart has a stable steady state, are a widely reported phenomenon. Traditional methods of finding parameter regimes for stochastically-driven resonances are, however, cumbersome for any but the smallest networks. In this letter we show by example of the Brusselator how to use real root counting algorithms and graph theoretic tools to efficiently determine the number of resonant modes and parameter ranges for stochastic oscillations. We argue that stochastic resonance is a network property by showing that resonant modes only depend on the squared Jacobian matrix $J^2$ , unlike deterministic oscillations which are determined by $J$. By using graph theoretic tools, analysis of stochastic behaviour for larger networks is simplified and chemical reaction networks with multiple resonant modes can be identified easily.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Enhancing the Quality of Data on Income: Recent Developments in Survey Methodology

In this paper, we evaluate two survey innovations aimed at improving income measurement. These innovations are (1) integrating the question sequences for income and wealth which may elicit more accurate estimates of income from capital than has been true in the past, and (2) changes in the periodicity over which income flows are measured, which may provide a closer match between what the survey respondent knows best and the periodicity contained in survey measurement. These innovations have been introduced into both the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and the study of Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD). Based on the results reported in this paper, the potential return in quality of income measurement from these innovations is substantial.

Dynamics of Co-translational Membrane Protein Integration and Translocation via the Sec Translocon

An important aspect of cellular function is the correct targeting and delivery of newly synthesized proteins. Central to this task is the machinery of the Sec translocon, a transmembrane channel that is involved in both the translocation of nascent proteins across cell membranes and the integration of proteins into the membrane. Considerable experimental and computational effort has focused on the Sec translocon and its role in nascent protein biosynthesis, including the correct folding and expression of integral membrane proteins. However, the use of molecular simulation methods to explore Sec-facilitated protein biosynthesis is hindered by the large system sizes and long (i.e., minute) timescales involved. In this work, we describe the development and application of a coarse-grained simulation approach that addresses these challenges and allows for direct comparison with both in vivo and in vitro experiments. The method reproduces a wide range of experimental observations, providing new insights into the underlying molecular mechanisms, predictions for new experiments, and a strategy for the rational enhancement of membrane protein expression levels

Airfoil self-noise and prediction

A prediction method is developed for the self-generated noise of an airfoil blade encountering smooth flow. The prediction methods for the individual self-noise mechanisms are semiempirical and are based on previous theoretical studies and data obtained from tests of two- and three-dimensional airfoil blade sections. The self-noise mechanisms are due to specific boundary-layer phenomena, that is, the boundary-layer turbulence passing the trailing edge, separated-boundary-layer and stalled flow over an airfoil, vortex shedding due to laminar boundary layer instabilities, vortex shedding from blunt trailing edges, and the turbulent vortex flow existing near the tip of lifting blades. The predictions are compared successfully with published data from three self-noise studies of different airfoil shapes. An application of the prediction method is reported for a large scale-model helicopter rotor, and the predictions compared well with experimental broadband noise measurements. A computer code of the method is given

Designing Primary Prevention for People Living with HIV

Today, there are new reasons for a sharper focus on prevention for people living with HIV. Growing numbers of people with the disease are living more healthy, sexual lives. Recent evidence suggests that risk taking among both HIV-positive and negative people is increasing. After nearly two decades of life in the shadow of AIDS, communities are growing weary of traditional prevention messages and many people are openly grappling with difficult questions of intimacy and sex. Increasingly, people living with HIV also face multiple complex economic and substance abuse challenges that complicate prevention efforts.There is an urgent need -- and sufficient expertise -- to move forward with prevention campaigns focused on helping people living with HIV and AIDS avoid passing their infection along to others. Numerous innovative interventions for people with HIV show promise, including:a social marketing campaign for gay men and a five-session group intervention for women living with HIV in Massachusetts,a chat line for positives and a group session program for Latinas/Latinos in Los Angeles,Internet chat room interventions in Atlanta,a group session for gay Asian American-Pacific Islander Americans living with HIV in San Francisco, andPrevention Case Management programs newly funded by the Centers for Disease Control

National Catastrophic Drug Insurance Revisited: Who Would Benefit from Senator Kirby's Recommendations?

The recent "Romanow" and "Kirby" inquiries into the Canadian health care system recommended a publicly funded catastrophic prescription drug insurance program to protect Canadians from potentially ruinous drug costs. While the Romanow commission was not specific about the nature of such a program, the Kirby commission recommended that household prescription drug expenses be capped at 3% of total household income, or $1,500 per household member, whichever is lower, with government picking up the remainder. Using recent survey data on household spending, we estimate how the program would assist households of different means and ages, residing in different regions of the country. We find that, despite the fact that senior and low income non-senior households are the primary beneficiaries of provincial government drug plans, average subsidies would be over 4 times higher for these households than for all other (non-senior, non-indigent) households. A small percentage of other households would be among the largest beneficiaries of the program. Program benefits are typically larger in provinces with less generous public coverage and tend to benefit lower income households. Program costs are estimated to be at least$461 million annually, although reductions in out of pocket drug spending will reduce medical tax credits and thereby increase tax revenues by at least $80 million. Program costs appeared to be very sensitive to increased household drug spending that might result from the program introduction.drug insurance; prescription drug expenses

National Catastrophic Drug Insurance Revisited: Who Would Benefit from Senator Kirby's Recommendations?

The recent "Romanow" and "Kirby" inquiries into the Canadian health care system recommended a publicly funded catastrophic prescription drug insurance program to protect Canadians from potentially ruinous drug costs. While the Romanow commission was not specific about the nature of such a program, the Kirby commission recommended that household prescription drug expenses be capped at 3% of total household income, or $1,500 per household member, whichever is lower, with government picking up the remainder. Using recent survey data on household spending, we estimate how the program would assist households of different means and ages, residing in different regions of the country. We find that, despite the fact that senior and low income non-senior households are the primary beneficiaries of provincial government drug plans, average subsidies would be over 4 times higher for these households than for all other (non-senior, non-indigent) households. A small percentage of other households would be among the largest beneficiaries of the program. Program benefits are typically larger in provinces with less generous public coverage and tend to benefit lower income households. Program costs are estimated to be at least$461 million annually, although reductions in out of pocket drug spending will reduce medical tax credits and thereby increase tax revenues by at least $80 million. Program costs appeared to be very sensitive to increased household drug spending that might result from the program introduction.drug insurance; prescription drug expenses