Instability from trade and democracy: the long-run effect of aid

Is there an effect of aid on democracy conditional on instability from trade ? This paper reinvestigate the debated effect of aid on democracy with a new specification. We take advantage of previous empirical findings explaining the role of aid in mitigating the adverse effects of external shocks, and argue that in the long term, aggregate aid flows can potentially dampen the effects of terms-of-trade instability on the quality of democracy. An empirical investigation with data from 70 developing countries (28 of them african countries) over the period 1980-2003 (pooled in two twelve-years periods) provides supportive results. Moreover, the data suggest that terms-of-trade instability affects democracy through income instability. These results are robust to alternative specifications and to the use of different measures of aid intensity and democracy.

Instability from trade and democracy: the long-run effect of aid

Is there an effect of aid on democracy conditional on instability from trade? This paper reinvestigates the debated effect of aid on democracy with a new specification. We take advantage of previous empirical findings explaining the role of aid in mitigating the adverse effects of external shocks, and argue that in the long term, aggregate aid flows can potentially dampen the effects of terms-of-trade instability on the quality of democracy. An empirical investigation with data from 70 developing countries (28 of them African countries) over the period 1980-2003 (pooled in two twelve-years periods) provides supportive results. Moreover, the data suggest that terms-of- trade instability affects democracy through income instability. These results are robust to alternative specifications and to the use of different measures of aid intensity and democracy

Working Paper 137 - Does Aid Unpredictability Weaken Governance? New Evidence from Developing Countries

This paper revisitates the effects of aid on governance from a different prospect, by upholding that aid unpredictability can potentially increase corruption in recipient countries through increased incentives from political leaders that are risk averse and corrupt, to engage in rent-seeking activities. Empirical investigation with data from 67 developing countries over1984-2004 provides supportive evidence that higher aid unpredictability is associated with more corruption as measured by a synthetic index. Coherently with some studies, we also found that aid dependency is on average associated with less corruption. These findings are a supplementary advocacy for the need to have a better predictability of aid.

On the potential of foreign aid to protect democracy against instability from trade

In this paper, we examine the effects of a major source of instability, namely terms of trade instability on the quality of democracy, and we investigate whether foreign aid can dampen them. We take advantage of previous empirical findings explaining the role of aid in mitigating the adverse effects of external shocks, and argue that in the long term, aggregate aid flows can potentially dampen the effects of terms of trade instability on democracy. An empirical investigation with data from 71 developing countries over the period 1980-2003 provides supportive results. Moreover, the data suggest that terms of trade instability affects democracy through income instability.democracy;foreign aid;terms of trade instability

On the potential of foreign aid to protect democracy against instability from trade

In this paper, we examine the effects of a major source of instability, namely terms of trade instability on the quality of democracy, and we investigate whether foreign aid can dampen them. We take advantage of previous empirical findings explaining the role of aid in mitigating the adverse effects of external shocks, and argue that in the long term, aggregate aid flows can potentially dampen the effects of terms of trade instability on democracy. An empirical investigation with data from 71 developing countries over the period 1980-2003 provides supportive results. Moreover, the data suggest that terms of trade instability affects democracy through income instability

Instability from trade and democracy: the long-run effect of aid

Is there an effect of aid on democracy conditional on instability from trade? This paper reinvestigates the debated effect of aid on democracy with a new specification. We take advantage of previous empirical findings explaining the role of aid in mitigating the adverse effects of external shocks, and argue that in the long term, aggregate aid flows can potentially dampen the effects of terms-of-trade instability on the quality of democracy. An empirical investigation with data from 70 developing countries (28 of them African countries) over the period 1980-2003 (pooled in two twelve-years periods) provides supportive results. Moreover, the data suggest that terms-of- trade instability affects democracy through income instability. These results are robust to alternative specifications and to the use of different measures of aid intensity and democrac

Assessing gender gaps in employment and earnings in Africa: The case of Eswatini

Abstract: Persistent gender gaps characterise labour markets in many African countries. Utilising Eswatini’s first three labour market surveys (conducted in 2007, 2010, and 2013), this paper provides first systematic evidence on the country’s gender gaps in employment and earnings. We find that women have notably lower employment rates and earnings than men, even though the global financial crisis had a less negative impact on women than it had on men. Both unadjusted and unexplained gender earnings gaps are higher in self-employment than in wage employment. Tertiary education and urban location account for a large part of the gender earnings gap and mitigate high female propensity to self-employment. Our findings suggest that policies supporting female higher education and rural-urban mobility could reduce persistent inequalities in Eswatini’s labour market outcomes as well as in other middle-income countries in southern Africa