ASEAN-5 Macroeconomic Forecasting Using a GVAR Model

This paper examines and evaluates macroeconomic forecasts for the original ASEAN-5 members in the context of a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model covering 20 countries, grouped into nine countries/regions. After estimating the GVAR model, we generate 12 one-quarter-ahead forecasts for the next quarter including real GDP, inflation, short-term interest rates, real exchange rates, and real equity prices over the period 2009Q1–2011Q4, with four out-of-sample forecasts over the period 2009Q1–2009Q4. Forecast evaluation results based on the panel Diebold-Mariano (DM) tests show the GVAR forecasts tend to outperform forecasts based on the benchmark country-specific models, especially for short-term interest rates and real equity prices, emphasizing the interdependencies in the global financial market.Macroeconomic Forecasting; Global vector autoregressive model (GVAR); Southeast Asia

Assessing the Resilience of ASEAN Banking Systems: The Case of the Philippines

Since the global financial crisis in 2008/09 there has been heightened concern about the resilience of banking systems in Southeast Asia. This paper proposes a methodology that uses a macroprudential perspective to assess the resilience of banking systems in member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. It then proceeds to apply this methodology to examine the resilience of the Philippine banking system. Data on financial soundness in the Philippine banking system are utilized in a vector autoregression model to study the dynamic relationships that exist among financial and macroeconomic indicators. Using impulse response functions, a simulation of financial ratios in the banking system is conducted by assuming unlikely but plausible stress scenarios to determine whether banking system credit and capital could withstand the impact of such circumstances. In the stress scenarios, the estimated impact of macroeconomic shocks on nonperforming loan and capital adequacy ratios is generally minimal. The results, however, do suggest that the Philippine banking system has some vulnerability to interest rate and stock market shocks. The results of such stress testing provide a better understanding of the level of preparedness required for managing risks in the financial system, especially in the wake of continuing global economic uncertainty.Banking System; Macroprudential; Stress Testing; Philippines; Panel VAR

International Strategic Marketing Plan for a Multinational Manufacturing Company

Over the last decade, polymers reinforced with natural fibres composites have been getting an increasing attention from the academic world and various industries. Natural fibres are prospective reinforcing materials and their usage until now has been more traditional than technical. The attractive features of natural fibres are their low cost, lightweight, high specific modulus, renewability and biodegradability. Oil palm empty fruit bunches (OPEFB) are readily available in large quantities in palm oil mills. The fact is oil palm fibre (OPF) can be obtained directly from natural resource, cheap and also has advantages due to their renewable nature, low cost, and easy availability. This study was aim to determine the tensile and flexural properties of oil palm fibre-thermoset composites. Oil palm fibre/phenol formaldehyde (OPF/PF) composites and oil palm fibre reinforced epoxy (OPF/Epoxy) composites were fabricated to carry out the determination of mechanical properties. The composites were prepared by volume fraction of 40%, 50% and 60% for OPF/PF while for OPF/epoxy were 5%, 10%, 15% and 20%. Composites were cut based on the ASTM D638 for tensile testing and ASTM D790 flexural testing. The testing was conducted on a Universal Testing Machine while the interfacial adhesion between fibre and matrix were observed using the scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Results from tensile and flexural tests of OPF/PF composites showed an increasing trend of tensile and flexural strengths as the volume fraction of fibre was increased. From the scattered values, it is found that the highest tensile and flexural strengths for OPF/PF composites were obtained at 60% volume fraction, in average. The results of tensile and flexural tests for OPF/Epoxy composites showed that by the addition of fibre content, the tensile and flexural strength was decreased compared to pure epoxy resin (0% fibre). It has been notice that to obtain the optimum tensile and flexural properties was found at the volume fraction of 5%. It is also found that the dispersion of fibre and interfacial adhesion between fibre – matrix can affect the mechanical properties of the composites

ASEAN-5 Macroeconomic Forecasting Using a GVAR Model

This paper examines and evaluates macroeconomic forecasts for the original ASEAN-5 members in the context of a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model covering 20 countries, grouped into nine countries/regions. After estimating the GVAR model, we generate 12 one-quarter-ahead forecasts for the next quarter including real GDP, inflation, short-term interest rates, real exchange rates, and real equity prices over the period 2009Q1–2011Q4, with four out-of-sample forecasts over the period 2009Q1–2009Q4. Forecast evaluation results based on the panel Diebold-Mariano (DM) tests show the GVAR forecasts tend to outperform forecasts based on the benchmark country-specific models, especially for short-term interest rates and real equity prices, emphasizing the interdependencies in the global financial market

Has Regional Integration Led to Greater Risk-Sharing in Asia?

The 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis revealed the latent risks present in an increasingly integrated global economy and how virulent these risks can be when roused from dormancy. Given the inevitability of integration, the challenge is how to maximize its benefits while minimizing its costs. One benefit of greater integration, particularly financial integration, is that countries can diversify their risks, thus allowing them to smooth out their consumption. This paper analyzes whether the degree of risk-sharing in East Asia has improved along with the observed rise in integration in the region. Higher risk-sharing is expected to result in (i) higher intraregional correlation of consumption across time and relative to output, and (ii) a higher residual in the panel regression of consumption on output. The results show that risk-sharing continues to be low in Asia. The increase in cross-economy correlation in consumption coincided with an even higher cross-economy correlation in output. Furthermore, the correlation between domestic consumption and domestic output growth remains high. And finally, correlation within the region is lower than correlation with the global economy. These findings suggest that higher consumption correlation is the result of stronger economic ties rather than greater risk-sharing

Assessing the Resilience of ASEAN Banking Systems: the Case of the Philippines

Since the global financial crisis in 2008/09 there has been heightened concern about the resilience of banking systems in Southeast Asia. This paper proposes a methodology that uses a macroprudential perspective to assess the resilience of banking systems in member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. It then proceeds to apply this methodology to examine the resilience of the Philippine banking system. Data on financial soundness in the Philippine banking system are utilized in a vector autoregression model to study the dynamic relationships that exist among financial and macroeconomic indicators. Using impulse response functions, a simulation of financial ratios in the banking system is conducted by assuming unlikely but plausible stress scenarios to determine whether banking system credit and capital could withstand the impact of such circumstances. In the stress scenarios, the estimated impact of macroeconomic shocks on nonperforming loan and capital adequacy ratios is generally minimal. The results, however, do suggest that the Philippine banking system has some vulnerability to interest rate and stock market shocks. The results of such stress testing provide a better understanding of the level of preparedness required for managing risks in the financial system, especially in the wake of continuing global economic uncertainty

Kidney with lower pole simple cysts - is it an absolute contraindication for renal biopsy

A percutaneous renal biopsy is an essential tool for diagnosis, prognosis, and choice of treatment for primary and secondary renal disease, as well as transplant kidney. It is a core procedure of nephrologists done under ultrasound-guided. The lower pole of the left kidney is our usual approach as the risk of injury to the major vessels will be very minimal. However, the presence of renal cyst at the lower pole of the kidney may increase the difficulty of biopsy as there is the possibility of puncturing the renal cyst during the procedure causing unstoppable bleeding. Here we present two case reports in which we were able to do percutaneous renal biopsy under ultrasound-guided for patients with simple renal cysts at the lower pole of the the hand of expert personnel, a lower pole cyst can be avoided under ultrasound-guided biopsy

Isolated renal sarcoidosis with acute kidney injury - a rare entity

Sarcoidosis is a multisystem inflammatory disorder that commonly affecting the lungs. However, isolated renal sarcoidosis without lung involvement is a rare condition. Sarcoidosis is known to cause kidney involvement via different mechanisms. Hypercalcemia and hypercalciuria may trigger renal stones formation and result in obstructive uropathy. Sarcoidosis can also cause interstitial nephritis with or without granuloma formation in the kidneys. The true incidence of renal involvement in sarcoidosis is unknown as renal biopsy is not routinely performed unless there is presence of renal impairment. Renal sarcoidosis is a diagnosis of exclusion supported by the typical histopathological findings. Due to the scarcity of this disease, there is no universal guideline or recommendation regarding the diagnosis and treatment for renal sarcoidosis. Here we present a case that initially presented to us with rapid deterioration of kidney function, which was later proven to be renal sarcoidosis, followed by a literature review

Development of a web-based insulin decision aid for the elderly: usability barriers and guidelines

In recent years, researchers have attempted to shift patient decision aids (PDAs) from paper-based to web-based to increase its accessibility. Insulin decision aids help diabetes patients, most of whom are elderly to make an informed decision to start insulin. However, the lack of usability guidelines applicable for such target group causes developers to struggle to answer the challenging question ‘How can such web service be made usable, and, ultimately, acceptable and accessible for elderly patients?’. Hence, the purpose of this study is to identify the common usability requirements that may facilitate good practices to empower elderly diabetes patients in utilizing a web-based insulin decision aid for their benefit. We set out an approach to use prototyping and retrospective think-aloud techniques to explore web usability barriers that elderly patients may encounter when using an insulin decision aid web site and use the feedback for improving the prototype. Usability requirements were captured iteratively through scoping, brainstorming, prototype, testing and evaluating. The study suggests that the insights from experts and users are equally important to assure the validity of the identified usability guidelines; they reflect the accessibility needs of the aging community while complementing the key requirements of an insulin decision aid. The study contributes to recommend web usability guidelines backed by a series of expert and user evaluations which could be a proactive resource to improve usability, acceptability and accessibility of online insulin decision aids for elderly with diabetes