Fiscal Policy Effects in the European Union

This paper analyzes empirically the impact of fiscal policy on the price level for the cases of Germany and Spain. We investigate whether the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) is able to deliver a reasonable explanation for the different performances of the price level in these two countries during recent years. We apply two different approaches. The first is a Bayesian VAR model using sign restrictions to assess the relation between surpluses and public debt. Afterwards, we use a Bayesian regime-switching model to uncover changes in monetary and fiscal policy behavior. The analysis basically shows that in each of the two countries fiscal shocks have a significant impact on the price level. Nonetheless, the FTPL does not deliver a reasonable explanation for the differences in the pattern of inflation between the two countries.Fiscal theory, policy interaction, monetary policy, public debt, price level, Euro area

Inflation Transmission in the EMU: A Markov-Switching VECM Analysis

This paper analyzes the transmission of inflation across the five largest economies in the European Monetary Union, i.e. France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain. We use monthly CPI inflation rates for the period 1970-2006. Given the long observation period and the continuing economic integration of Europe’s economies, we first try to investigate, if there were changes in inflation dynamics in these countries using univariate Markov-switching models. To assess the inflation transmission mechanism, we first establish a long-run relationship between the five countries using cointegration methods. As implied by the results of the univariate models, we allow for changes in the adjustment coefficients of the cointegrating relationships and the short-run dynamics. Using a Markov-switching vector error correction model we find evidence for multiple regime switches during the early 1970s till the mid 1980s. Exactly during this period we find evidence for Germany being weakly exogenous, which highlights the dominance of German monetary policy at this time. Since the mid-1980s we find evidence for a stable transmission mechanism both in the long- and the short-run characterized by a low degree of inflation persistence.Inflation transmission, monetary integration, MS-VECM, cointegration, euro area

Fiscal Policy Rules in Practice

This paper analyzes German and Spanish fiscal policy using simple policy rules. We choose Germany and Spain, as both are Member States in the European Monetary Union (EMU) and underwent considerable increases in public debt in the early 1990s. We focus on the question, how fiscal policy behaves under rising public debt ratios. It is found that both Germany and Spain generally exhibit a positive relationship between government revenues and debt. Using Markov-switching techniques, we show that both countries underwent a change in policy behavior in the light of rising debt/output ratios at the end of the 1990s. Interestingly, this change in policy behavior differs in its characteristics across the two countries and seems to be non-permanent in the case of Germany.Fiscal policy rules, Public Debt, Euro Area, Fiscal Consolidation.

Fiscal policy rules in practice

This paper analyzes German and Spanish fiscal policy using simple policy rules. We choose Germany and Spain, as both are Member States in the European Monetary Union (EMU) and underwent considerable increases in public debt in the early 1990s. We focus on the question, how fiscal policy behaves under rising public debt ratios. It is found that both Germany and Spain generally exhibit a positive relationship between government revenues and debt. Using Markov-switching techniques, we show that both countries underwent a change in policy behavior in the light of rising debt/output ratios at the end of the 1990s. Interestingly, this change in policy behavior differs in its characteristics across the two countries and seems to be non-permanent in the case of Germany.Fiscal policy; policy rule; policy interaction; sustainability of fiscal policy; regime switches

LONG-TERM ORIENTATION IN FAMILY AND NON-FAMILY FIRMS: A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

A stronger long-term orientation is considered a competitive advantage of family firms relative to non-family firms. In this study, we use panel data of U.S. firms and analyze this proposition. Our findings are surprising. Only in when the family is involved in the management of the firm is the firm found to invest more in long-term projects relative to a non-family firm. We also find that investment in long-term projects in family firms is determined less by cash flow variations than for non-family firms. Managerial implications of our findings are discussed. Our hypotheses are tested using Bayesian methods.Family Firm, Long-term Orientation, Myopia, Bayesian Analysis, Agency Theory, Stewardship Theory, Investment Policy

Efficient Database Generation for Data-driven Security Assessment of Power Systems

Power system security assessment methods require large datasets of operating points to train or test their performance. As historical data often contain limited number of abnormal situations, simulation data are necessary to accurately determine the security boundary. Generating such a database is an extremely demanding task, which becomes intractable even for small system sizes. This paper proposes a modular and highly scalable algorithm for computationally efficient database generation. Using convex relaxation techniques and complex network theory, we discard large infeasible regions and drastically reduce the search space. We explore the remaining space by a highly parallelizable algorithm and substantially decrease computation time. Our method accommodates numerous definitions of power system security. Here we focus on the combination of N-k security and small-signal stability. Demonstrating our algorithm on IEEE 14-bus and NESTA 162-bus systems, we show how it outperforms existing approaches requiring less than 10% of the time other methods require.Comment: Database publicly available at: https://github.com/johnnyDEDK/OPs_Nesta162Bus - Paper accepted for publication at IEEE Transactions on Power System

The Relevance of the fiscal Theory of the Price Level revisited

This paper analyzes empirically the impact of fiscal policy on the price level for Germany and Spain. We investigate, whether the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) is able to deliver a reasonable explanation for the different evolutions of the price levels in these two countries during recent years. We apply a Bayesian VAR model with sign restrictions on the impulse responses to assess the relation between surpluses and public debt. The analysis basically evidences non-Ricardian equilibria in Spain, while the opposite is true for Germany. We interpret this as evidence for the inflation differences in these two countries being partially induced by fiscal policy shocks.Fiscal theory; policy interaction; monetary policy; public debt; price level; euro area

Interaction of Droop Control Structures and its Inherent Effect on the Power Transfer Limits in Multi-terminal VSC-HVDC

Future multiterminal HVDC systems are expected to utilize dc voltage droop controllers, and several control structures have been proposed in the literature. This paper proposes a methodology to analyze the impact of various types of droop control structures using small-signal stability analysis considering all possible combinations of droop gains. The different control structures are evaluated by the active power transfer capability as a function of the droop gains, considering various possible stability margins. This reveals the flexibility and robustness against active power flow variations, due to disturbances for all of the implementations. A case study analyzing a three-terminal HVDC VSC-based grid with eight different kinds of droop control schemes points out that three control structures outperform the remaining ones. In addition, a multivendor case is considered where the most beneficial combinations of control structures have been combined in order to find the best performing combination

Inflation Transmission in the EMU: A Markov-Switching VECM Analysis

This paper analyzes the transmission of inflation across the five largest economies in the European Monetary Union, i.e. France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain. We use monthly CPI inflation rates for the period 1970-2006. Given the long observation period and the continuing economic integration of Europe’s economies, we first try to investigate, if there were changes in inflation dynamics in these countries using univariate Markov-switching models. To assess the inflation transmission mechanism, we first establish a long-run relationship between the five countries using cointegration methods. As implied by the results of the univariate models, we allow for changes in the adjustment coefficients of the cointegrating relationships and the short-run dynamics. Using a Markov-switching vector error correction model we find evidence for multiple regime switches during the early 1970s till the mid 1980s. Exactly during this period we find evidence for Germany being weakly exogenous, which highlights the dominance of German monetary policy at this time. Since the mid-1980s we find evidence for a stable transmission mechanism both in the long- and the short-run characterized by a low degree of inflation persistence