Prospective scenarios analysis Impact on demand for oil and its derivatives after the COVID-19 pandemic

Goal: This paper aims to illustrate one of the strategies found in the literature to deal with uncertainties: prospecting scenarios in the demand for oil derivatives after the COVID-19 pandemic (identifying the desirable scenario, the undesirable and the trend, at a national level in the Brazilian market) and proposing a corresponding strategy plan for each prospection in order to minimize the resumption impacts. Design / Methodology / Approach: This study was carried out with relevant indicators of the oil and gas industry (downstream). Commercialization data (from 2017 to 2020) were compared in order to verify the pandemic impacts. After collecting the data, we used the Momentum approach to prospect the scenarios, suggesting a strategic action plan for each prospection. Results: The results reveal that, regardless the post-pandemic scenario that we will encounter, the industries belonging to the oil and gas sector will have to define strategies and implement solid action plans to remain competitive in the market. It was also possible to note that the action plan for the desirable and trend scenario has synergy. Limitations of the investigation: The results obtained in this research refer only to the Brazilian scenario, more specifically to the downstream sector of the oil and gas industry and may differ from other sectors or regions. Practical implications: This research provides ways for oil and gas companies to be prepared for the post-pandemic future, thus remaining competitive in the market. In addition, as a result of applying the Momentum method, it is possible to see how the sector's indicators relate to each other through the cross-impact matrix. Originality / Value: This is an unprecedented study that allows the downstream oil and gas companies to be better prepared to the post-COVID-19 scenario. It adds value not only to the oil and gas industry but also to other industries, since it is possible to replicate the method presented here in other contexts with different databases

Proposing performance indicators for evaluating suppliers in companies in the sector in Brazil

O relacionamento com fornecedores, clientes e integrantes da cadeia de suprimentos deve ser medido e acompanhado para garantir a eficiência e qualidade do processo. Para realizar a mensuração, utiliza-se os indicadores de desempenho. Com as cadeias de suprimentos cada vez mais integradas e globais, verifica-se a existência de diversas abordagens para avaliação de fornecedores. Os indicadores de desempenho são importantes para esta avaliação, porque são fundamentais para o apoio na tomada de decisão e conexão das operações da cadeia de suprimentos às metas empresariais. Este trabalho propõe um conjunto de indicadores para a avaliação de fornecedores para empresas do setor elétrico de geração e transmissão de energia. Utilizou-se a abordagem qualitativa e o método de estudo de casos múltiplos, com entrevistas semiestruturadas junto a empresas públicas e privadas do setor elétrico (empresa foco), nas atividades de geração e transmissão de energia no elo fornecedor-cliente, e com membros da comunidade acadêmica. Os fornecedores dessas empresas ofertam produtos diferentes, então o insumo foco do trabalho foi o sobressalente. Os sobressalentes de equipamentos possuem baixa rotatividade de estoque, alto valor e características específicas. Muitos destes insumos que compõem estes materiais são importados e, por este motivo, a gestão da cadeia de suprimentos de sobressalentes é estratégica. A coleta de dados teve como fontes as entrevistas, os websites das empresas, relatórios do setor e dados econômicos. Foi aplicado um roteiro de perguntas abertas e fechadas em chats com cada respondente dos setores de compras e operações. Os tópicos do roteiro de perguntas (inclusive os indicadores e requisitos) tiveram sua origem na revisão de literatura. Para apresentar realidades diferentes do setor, selecionou-se empresas do setor privado e público. No Brasil, as empresas públicas possuem legislações e regulamentos para processos de compras e contratação, enquanto as empresas privadas não possuem essas limitações de processo, levando a relacionamentos diferentes entre os agentes de compra e seus fornecedores. A análise de dados foi realizada com a contraposição entre os achados no campo com a literatura e pelo uso do software QDA Miner nas perguntas abertas. Para a validação dos indicadores de desempenho e a sua aplicação no setor elétrico, utilizou-se a escala de Lawshe (1975) com a perspectiva dos indicadores “essenciais” e “desnecessários”. Com o uso dessa escala e com as respostas dos membros e não membros da comunidade acadêmica, que analisaram se os indicadores atendiam aos requisitos, ofertou-se, nesse trabalho, uma framework como a proposta dos indicadores para a avaliação de fornecedores para empresas do setor elétrico. Deve-se lembrar que o número de indicadores não é rígido, ele pode ser reduzido e adaptado a outro setor, ou no mesmo setor, mas para fornecedores de outros insumos. Além desta validação, verificou-se se os indicadores atendem a requisitos fundamentais para aplicação dos indicadores para avaliação. Observou-se que os indicadores que foram escolhidos pelos entrevistados e que atenderam aos requisitos se concentraram em três grupos: gestão da qualidade, gestão logística e gestão financeiraThe relationship with suppliers and customers in the supply chain must be monitored to ensure the quality of the process. To carry out the measurement, use the performance indicators. With supply chains of different types, increasingly integrated and global, there are several approaches for evaluating different types. Performance indicators are important for this assessment because they are critical to supporting decision-making and connecting supply chain operations to business goals. This work projects a set of indicators for the evaluation of suppliers for companies in the electricity generation and transmission sector. A qualitative approach and the multiple case study method were used, with semi-structured interviews with public and private companies in the electricity sector (company), in the activities of generation and transmission of energy in the supplier-client link, and with members of the community appreciated. The suppliers of these companies offer different products, so the input focus of the work was the spare. Equipment spares have low inventory turnover, high value and specific characteristics. Many supply chains are imported and, for this reason, the supply of spare parts is strategic. Data collection was based on interviews, company websites, industry reports and data. A script of open and closed questions was applied in chats with each respondent from the purchasing and operations sectors. The question roadmap indicators (including indicators and requirements) originated from the literature review. To present different realities of the sector, companies from the private and public sectors were selected. In Brazil, public companies have legislation and regulations for purchasing and contracting processes, while private companies do not have these process limitations, leading to different relationships between purchasing agents and their suppliers. Data analysis was performed by comparing the findings in the field with the literature and by using the QDA Miner software in the open questions. For the validation of performance indicators and their application in the electricity sector, the Lawshe scale (1975) was used with the perspective of “essential” and “unnecessary” indicators. Using this scale and with the responses of members and non-members of the academic community, who analyzed whether the indicators met the requirements, a framework was offered in this work, such as the proposal of indicators for the evaluation of suppliers for companies in the sector. electric. It should be remembered that the number of indicators is not rigid, it can be reduced and adapted to another sector, or in the same sector, but for suppliers of other inputs. In addition to this validation, it was verified whether the indicators meet the fundamental requirements for the application of the indicators for evaluation. It was observed that the indicators that were chosen by the interviewees and that met the requirements were concentrated in three groups: quality management, logistics management and financial management175 p