Bayesian Models and Decision Algorithms for Complex Early Phase Clinical Trials

An early phase clinical trial is the first step in evaluating the effects in humans of a potential new anti-disease agent or combination of agents. Usually called "phase I" or "phase I/II" trials, these experiments typically have the nominal scientific goal of determining an acceptable dose, most often based on adverse event probabilities. This arose from a tradition of phase I trials to evaluate cytotoxic agents for treating cancer, although some methods may be applied in other medical settings, such as treatment of stroke or immunological diseases. Most modern statistical designs for early phase trials include model-based, outcome-adaptive decision rules that choose doses for successive patient cohorts based on data from previous patients in the trial. Such designs have seen limited use in clinical practice, however, due to their complexity, the requirement of intensive, computer-based data monitoring, and the medical community's resistance to change. Still, many actual applications of model-based outcome-adaptive designs have been remarkably successful in terms of both patient benefit and scientific outcome. In this paper I will review several Bayesian early phase trial designs that were tailored to accommodate specific complexities of the treatment regime and patient outcomes in particular clinical settings.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-STS315 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Simultaneously Optimizing Dose and Schedule of a New Cytotoxic Agent

Traditionally, phase I clinical trial designs determine a maximum tolerated dose of an experimental cytotoxic agent based on a fixed schedule, usually one course consisting of multiple administrations, while varying the dose per administration between patients. However, in actual medical practice patients often receive several courses of treatment, and some patients may receive one or more dose reductions due to low-grade (non-dose limiting) toxicity in previous courses. As a result, the overall risk of toxicity for each patient is a function of both the schedule and the dose used at each adminstration. We propose a new paradigm for Phase I clinical trials that allows both the dose per administration and the schedule to vary, making treatment two-dimensional. We provide an outcome-adaptive Bayesian design that simultaneously optimizes both dose and schedule in terms of the overall risk of toxicity, based on time-to-toxicity outcomes. The method is illustrated with a trial of an agent hypothesized to prolong cancer remission after allogeneic bone marrow transplantation, and a simulation study in the context of this trial is presented

Evaluation of viable dynamic treatment regimes in a sequentially randomized trial of advanced prostate cancer

We present new statistical analyses of data arising from a clinical trial designed to compare two-stage dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) for advanced prostate cancer. The trial protocol mandated that patients be initially randomized among four chemotherapies, and that those who responded poorly be re-randomized to one of the remaining candidate therapies. The primary aim was to compare the DTRs' overall success rates, with success defined by the occurrence of successful responses in each of two consecutive courses of the patient's therapy. Of the 150 study participants, 47 did not complete their therapy as per the algorithm. However, 35 of them did so for reasons that precluded further chemotherapy, that is, toxicity and/or progressive disease. Consequently, rather than comparing the overall success rates of the DTRs in the unrealistic event that these patients had remained on their assigned chemotherapies, we conducted an analysis that compared viable switch rules defined by the per-protocol rules but with the additional provision that patients who developed toxicity or progressive disease switch to a non-prespecified therapeutic or palliative strategy. This modification involved consideration of bivariate per-course outcomes encoding both efficacy and toxicity.We used numerical scores elicited from the trial's principal investigator to quantify the clinical desirability of each bivariate per-course outcome, and defined one endpoint as their average over all courses of treatment. Two other simpler sets of scores as well as log survival time were also used as endpoints. Estimation of each DTR-specific mean score was conducted using inverse probability weighted methods that assumed that missingness in the 12 remaining dropouts was informative but explainable in that it only depended on past recorded data.We conducted additional worst-and best-case analyses to evaluate sensitivity of our findings to extreme departures from the explainable dropout assumption.Fil: Wang, Lu. University of Michigan; Estados UnidosFil: Rotnitzky, Andrea Gloria. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Departamento de Economía; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Lin, Xihong. Harvard University; Estados UnidosFil: Millikan, Randall. University of Texas; Estados UnidosFil: Thall, Peter. University of Texas; Estados Unido

Ex vivo expansion of megakaryocyte precursors from umbilical cord blood CD34+ cells in a closed liquid culture system

AbstractUmbilical cord blood (UCB) provides a rich source of stem cells for transplantation after myeloablative therapy. One major disadvantage of UCB transplantation is delayed platelet engraftment. We propose to hasten platelet engraftment by expanding the number of megakaryocyte (MK) precursors (CD34/CD41 cells) through cytokine stimulation within a closed, pre-clinical liquid culture system. Clinical engraftment data suggest a 5- to 10-fold increase in MK precursors in a UCB unit can accelerate platelet engraftment, so this was our goal. Thirteen UCB samples from full-term births were Ficoll-separated and frozen for subsequent use. On thawing, the mononuclear cell population was positively selected for CD34+ expression. The cells were cultured in gas-permeable Teflon-coated bags in serum-free medium containing the following cytokines: recombinant human interleukin-3, recombinant human Flt3 ligand, recombinant human stem cell factor, and recombinant human thrombopoietin. MK lineage cell expansion was assessed using mononuclear cell count and flow cytometry (CD34/41, CD41, CD34/61, and CD61 expression) on days 7, 11, and 14. Optimal expansion of CD34/41 and CD41 cells was observed at day 11, with a median 6-fold and 33-fold increase in the starting cell doses, respectively. CD34/61 and CD61 cell expansion at day 11 was 7-fold and 14-fold, respectively. MK precursors can be successfully expanded from CD34+ UCB cells in a closed liquid culture system using interleukin-3, recombinant human Flt3 ligand, recombinant human stem cell factor, and recombinant human thrombopoietin to a level that should have a clinical impact in the transplantation setting. Our ex vivo expansion technique needs to be further optimized before it can be used in a pilot UCB transplantation trial. © 2003 American Society for Blood and Marrow TransplantationBiology of Blood and Marrow Transplantation 9:151-156 (2003

Using Joint Utilities of the Times to Response and Toxicity to Adaptively Optimize Schedule–Dose Regimes

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/101836/1/biom12065-sm-0001-SuppData.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/101836/2/biom12065.pd

Clofarabine ± Fludarabine with Once Daily i.v. Busulfan as Pretransplant Conditioning Therapy for Advanced Myeloid Leukemia and MDS

Although a combination of i.v. busulfan (Bu) and fludarabine (Flu) is a safe, reduced-toxicity conditioning program for acute myelogenous leukemia/myelodysplastic syndromes (AML/MDS), recurrent leukemia posttransplantation remains a problem. To enhance the conditioning regimen’s antileukemic effect, we decided to supplant Flu with clofarabine (Clo), and assayed the interactions of these nucleoside analogs alone and in combination with Bu in Bu-resistant human cell lines in vitro. We found pronounced synergy between each nucleoside and the alkylator but even more enhanced cytotoxic synergy when the nucleoside analogs were combined prior to exposing the cells to Bu. We then designed a 4-arm clinical trial in patients with myeloid leukemia undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation (allo-SCT). Patients were adaptively randomized as follows: Arm I–Clo:Flu 10:30 mg/m2, Arm II—20:20 mg/m2, Arm III—30:10 mg/m2, and Arm IV–single-agent Clo at 40 mg/m2. The nucleoside analog(s) were/was infused over 1 hour once daily for 4 days, followed on each day by Bu, infused over 3 hours to a pharmacokinetically targeted daily area under the curve (AUC) of 6000 μMol-min ± 10%. Fifty-one patients have been enrolled with a minimum follow-up exceeding 100 days. There were 32 males and 19 females, with a median age of 45 years (range: 6-59). Nine patients had chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) (BC: 2, second AP: 3, and tyrosine-kinase inhibitor refractory first chronic phase [CP]: 4). Forty-two patients had AML: 14 were induction failures, 8 in first chemotherapy-refractory relapse, 7 in untreated relapse, 3 in second or subsequent relapse, 4 were in second complete remission (CR), and 3 in second CR without platelet recovery (CRp), 2 were in high-risk CR1. Finally, 1 patient was in first CRp. Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis was tacrolimus and mini-methorexate (MTX), and those who had an unrelated or 1 antigen-mismatched donor received low-dose rabbit-ATG (Thymoglobulin™). All patients engrafted. Forty-one patients had active leukemia at the time of transplant, and 35 achieved CR (85%). Twenty of the 42 AML patients and 5 of 9 CML patients are alive with a projected median overall survival (OS) of 23 months. Marrow and blood (T cell) chimerism studies at day +100 revealed that both in the lower-dose Clo groups (groups 1+2) and the higher-dose Clo groups (groups 3+4), the patients had a median of 100% donor (T cell)-derived DNA. There has been no secondary graft failure. In the first 100 days, 1 patient died of pneumonia, and 1 of liver GVHD. We conclude that (1) Clo ± Flu with i.v. Bu as pretransplant conditioning is safe in high-risk myeloid leukemia patients; (2) clofarabine is sufficiently immunosuppressive to support allo-SCT in myeloid leukemia; and (3) the median OS of 23 months in this high-risk patient population is encouraging. Additional studies to evaluate the antileukemic efficacy of Clo ± Flu with i.v. Bu as pretransplant conditioning therapy are warranted

Complement-Binding Donor-Specific Anti-HLA Antibodies and Risk of Primary Graft Failure in Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

AbstractDetection of donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies (DSA) has been associated with graft rejection in all forms of transplantation. The mechanism by which DSA increase the risk of graft failure remains unclear. We hypothesized that complement-binding DSA are associated with engraftment failure in hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) and analyzed 122 haploidentical transplant recipients tested prospectively for DSA. Retrospective analysis to detect C1q binding DSA (C1q+DSA) was performed on 22 allosensitized recipients. Twenty-two of 122 patients (18%) had DSA, 19 of which were women (86%). Seven patients with DSA (32%) rejected the graft. Median DSA level at transplant for patients who failed to engraft was 10,055 mean fluorescence intensity (MFI) versus 2065 MFI for those who engrafted (P = .007). Nine patients with DSA were C1q positive in the initial samples with median DSA levels of 15,279 MFI (range, 1554 to 28,615), compared with 7 C1q-negative patients with median DSA levels of 2471 MFI (range, 665 to 12,254) (P = .016). Of 9 patients who were C1q positive in the initial samples, 5 patients remained C1q positive at time of transplant (all with high DSA levels [median, 15,279; range, 6487 to 22,944]) and experienced engraftment failure, whereas 4 patients became C1q negative pretransplant and all engrafted the donor cells (P = .008). In conclusion, patients with high DSA levels (>5000 MFI) and complement-binding DSA antibodies (C1q positive) appear to be at much higher risk of primary graft failure. The presence of C1q+DSA should be assessed in allosensitized patients before HSCT. Reduction of C1q+DSA levels might prevent engraftment failure in HSCT