The Impact of Banking Deregulation on Canadian Banks Returns

This paper revisits the impact of OBS activities on Canadian banks risk-return trade-off. Recent studies (Stiroh and Rumble 2006, Calmès and Liu 2007) suggest that increasing OBS activities do not necessarily yield straightforward diversification benefits. However, adding a risk premium to earlier accounting returns models by resorting to an ARCH-M procedure, an updated sample reveals that the Canadian banks risk-return trade-off displays a structural break, around 1997. In the second subperiod (1997-2007) of our sample, we find that the share of noninterest income no longer negatively impacts banks returns. Relatedly, we find that a risk premium emerges while, in the first period (1988-1996), the volatility variable is not significant in any returns equations. Our results are thus consistent with a maturation process story.Regulatory changes; Noninterest income; Diversification; Structural break; Risk premium.

Off-Balance-Sheet Activities and the Shadow Banking System: An Application of the Hausman Test with Higher Moments Instruments

The noninterest income banks generate from their off-balance-sheet activities contributes greatly to the volatility of their operating revenues. Using Canadian data, we apply a modified Hausman procedure based on higher moments instruments and revisit this phenomenon to establish that the share of noninterest income (snonin) is actually endogenous to banks returns. In 1997, after the adoption of the Value at Risk (VaR) as a measure of banks risk, the snonin sign turns positive in the returns equations, indicating the emergence of diversification gains from banks non-traditional activities. ARCH-M estimations corroborate the idea that banks have gradually adapted to their new business lines, with an adjustment process begun even before 1997. However, the banks risk premium associated to OBS activities has continuously increased since that date.Bank Risk Measures; Diversification; Noninterest income; Hausman test; Endogeneity; ARCH-M.

Banking Deregulation and Financial Stability : is it Time to re-regulate in Canada ?

We provide new evidence of a worsening of the risk-return trade-off in Canadian banking. Surging OBS activities have led to increasingly volatile net operating revenues, and might have reduced well-known measures of bank profitability, like return on assets and return on equity. In this context, a natural question arises: should we re-regulate? On this matter, we confirm Calmès(2003) prediction: a maturation process took place after 1997. Using a new approach based on ARCH-M estimation, we find that an additional risk premium has emerged. In this sense, there is no need to re-regulate.ARCH-M Models, risk premium, financial stability

L’impact de la Banque du Canada sur la disponibilité du crédit bancaire : 1967-1976

In this article we want to verify if Bank of Canada's actions on the availability of credit were efficient from 1967 to 1976. During this period, the interest rate was chiefly used to maintain balance of payments equilibrium and the Bank of Canada was trying to affect internal credit conditions (here banks' loans) through its effect on the chartered banks' liquid asset ratio. However, this ratio is an imperfect indicator of the availability of banks' credit. Chartered banks have in fact many techniques to obtain liquidities: the whole of these constitutes their liability management mechanism. By this way, they can immune themselves from a restrictive monetary policy which operates via the liquid asset ratio. The degree of accommodation of loans is also another factor to consider when studying the impact of the Bank of Canada on banks' loans. It is evident that a high degree of accommodation of loans is a serious obstacle to monetary policy: liquidity management is probably pushed very far in this case. Our theoretical model takes into account these considerations. And the estimation of this model shows that loans have little reacted to Bank of Canada's actions. The degree of loans accommodation was high and consequently banks checked the Bank of Canada's policy by their liquidity management mechanism

Un exposé de la théorie du déséquilibre : Revue commentée de la littérature

This paper reviews the principal theories on disequilibrium, from Walras to Barro and Grossman. There is a certain tendency in most of these theories to consider equilibrium and disequilibrium as independent phenomenons: at the end of a disequilibrium period, equilibrium in the neoclassical sense reappears, i.e. a paretian optimum. Disequilibrium is at most an adjustment period. But Glower is opposed to this methodology. Equilibrium periods are very influenced by preceding disequilibrium periods. For example, Clower considers unemployment as a situation of equilibrium. This is a nonsense for a neoclassical economist for whom equilibrium is an ideal state. Clower attacks veritably the traditional economic analysis which attributes to the equilibrium of perfect competition certain ideal properties. Finally, we emphasize that the theory of disequilibrium may arrive to explain stagflation

Un modèle économétrique des marges bénéficiaires des caisses populaires Desjardins du Québec et des banques à charte canadiennes

Le but de cet article est de proposer un modèle économétrique qui permette d’expliquer la détermination des marges bénéficiaires (revenus nets d’intérêts par 100 $ d’actif) des caisses populaires Desjardins du Québec et des banques à charte canadiennes. Il existe très peu d’articles dans les revues académiques qui abordent ce sujet. Nos recherches ont permis de dégager que ce sont surtout des facteurs institutionnels qui rendent compte de l’évolution des marges bénéficiaires des institutions de dépôt du Canada. Du côté des caisses populaires Desjardins du Québec, les facteurs qui expliquent la forte érosion de leur marge bénéficiaire depuis 1983 sont le gonflement des taux d’intérêt au cours de la période d’analyse et la proportion grandissante des dépôts à terme fixe dans l’ensemble de leurs dépôts. Du côté des banques, l’assainissement du portefeuille international et la croissance marquée des prêts personnels et hypothécaires ont contribué à l’amélioration de leur marge bénéficiaire.This article proposes a model of the interest rate spread of the "caisses populaires" located in Quebec and of the Canadian chartered banks. There exists very few articles on this subject. It appears that institutional factors are the principal determinants of interest rate spreads of Canadian depositary institutions

The Impact of Off-Balance-Sheet Activities on Banks Returns: An Application of the ARCH-M to Canadian Data

This paper revisits the impact of off-balance-sheet (OBS) activities on banks risk-return trade-off. Recent studies (e.g., Stiroh and Rumble 2006) suggest that increasing OBS activities do not necessarily yield straightforward diversification benefits for banks. However, introducing a risk premium in the standard banks returns models, and resorting to an ARCH-M procedure, Canadian data suggest that banks risk-return trade-off displays a structural break around 1997. In the second subperiod of our sample (1997-2007), we find that the noninterest income generated by OBS activities no longer impacts banks returns negatively. While during the first period (1988-1996) the volatility variable is not significant in any returns equations, a risk premium eventually emerged, pricing the risk associated to OBS activities risks.Regulatory changes; Noninterest income; Diversification; Structural break; Risk premium.