A Policy Impact Evaluation Model For Scotland: Decoupling Single Farm Payments

The purpose of this paper is to assess the impacts of decoupling single farm payments in Scotland. It focuses on aggregate impacts on the agricultural products in domestic and external markets and the spill-over effect of this on the non-agricultural sector as well as an aggregate impact on the Scottish GDP. In order to capture system-wide impacts of the policy reform, a CGE model was formulated and implemented using a social accounting matrix constructed for Scotland. The simulation results suggest that the Scottish agricultural sector may encounter declines in output and factor us as a result of the policy reform. However, this critically depends on two factors: (a) the price effect of the policy reform on Scottish agricultural products relative to the EU average as well as the conditions of changes in world agricultural market prices; and (b) the extent to which customers would be sensitive to price effects of the policy reform. As far as the spill-over effect to the non-agricultural sector is concerned, decoupling of direct payments seems to have a positive spill-over effect. Similarly, the aggregate GDP effect is positive under all simulation scenarios. Critically, the simulation experiments indicate that policy shock may have a symmetrical outcome across the two sectors, with contractions in agriculture being accompanied by expansions in the non-agricultural sector, mainly because of factor market interactions between the two sectors.

Clinical Outcomes of Chemotherapy Naïve Men with Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer and Low Baseline Prostate Specific Antigen Treated with Enzalutamide vs Placebo.

PURPOSE: Metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer with low baseline prostate specific antigen represents an early stage in the natural history of castration resistant prostate cancer progression (low volume disease), low prostate specific antigen producing disease or disease that is less dependent on androgen receptor biology (high volume disease). We analyzed outcomes in men with low prostate specific antigen and a high disease burden who received the oral androgen receptor inhibitor enzalutamide in the PREVAIL (Safety and Efficacy Study of Oral MDV3100 in Chemotherapy-Naive Patients with Progressive Metastatic Prostate Cancer) study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this exploratory analysis low baseline prostate specific antigen was defined as less than 10 ng/ml. Post hoc analyses included radiographic progression-free and overall survival in the once daily enzalutamide and placebo arms. Patients were stratified post hoc by high volume disease, defined as more than 4 bone metastases and/or visceral disease, and low volume disease, defined as 4 or fewer bone metastases with no visceral disease. RESULTS: Of 1,717 patients enrolled in PREVAIL 242 (14.1%) had low baseline prostate specific antigen, including 110 with high volume disease. Enzalutamide decreased the risk of radiographic progression relative to placebo in patients with low baseline prostate specific antigen (HR 0.20, 95% CI 0.10-0.42). This decrease was irrespective of tumor burden (high volume disease HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.06-0.51 and low volume disease HR 0.25, 95% CI 0.09-0.70). Median overall survival was not reached in patients with low baseline prostate specific antigen in either treatment arm. CONCLUSIONS: Chemotherapy naïve men with metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer and low baseline prostate specific antigen irrespective of disease burden may benefit from enzalutamide. This indicates that targeting the androgen receptor signaling pathway is a therapeutic option in similar patients

Health-related quality of life effects of enzalutamide in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: an in-depth post hoc analysis of EQ-5D data from the PREVAIL trial.

BACKGROUND: The effect of enzalutamide on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in the PREVAIL trial in chemotherapy-naïve men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer was analyzed using the generic EQ-5D instrument. METHODS: Patients received oral enzalutamide 160 mg/day (n = 872) or placebo (n = 845). EQ-5D index and EQ-5D visual analogue scale (EQ-5D VAS) scores were evaluated at baseline, week 13, and every 12 weeks until week 61 due to sample size reduction thereafter. Changes on individual dimensions were assessed, and Paretian Classification of Health Change (PCHC) and time-to-event analyses were conducted. RESULTS: With enzalutamide, EQ-5D index and EQ-5D VAS scores declined more slowly versus placebo and time to diverge from full health was prolonged. Average decline in EQ-5D index (-0.042 vs. -0.070; P < .0001) and EQ-5D VAS (-1.3 vs. -4.4; P < .0001) was significantly smaller with enzalutamide. There were significant (P < .05) between-group differences favoring enzalutamide in Pain/Discomfort to week 37, Anxiety/Depression at week 13, and Usual Activities at week 25, but no significant differences for Mobility and Self-care. The PCHC analysis showed more enzalutamide patients reporting improvement than placebo patients at weeks 13, 25, and 49 (all P < .05) and week 37 (P = .0512). Enzalutamide was superior (P ≤ .0003) to placebo for time to diverge from full health and time to first deterioration on Pain/Discomfort and Anxiety/Depression dimensions. CONCLUSIONS: This in-depth post hoc analysis showed that enzalutamide delayed HRQoL deterioration and had beneficial effects on several HRQoL domains, including Pain/Discomfort and the proportion of patients in full health, compared with placebo, and may help to support future analyses of this type. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01212991

Five-year Survival Prediction and Safety Outcomes with Enzalutamide in Men with Chemotherapy-naïve Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer from the PREVAIL Trial.

In the PREVAIL study, enzalutamide significantly improved clinical outcomes versus placebo in patients with chemotherapy-naïve metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). To evaluate long-term benefits and risks of enzalutamide in the final prespecified PREVAIL analysis. We conducted a final 5-yr survival analysis of PREVAIL in men with chemotherapy-naïve mCRPC from the enzalutamide (n = 689) and placebo (n = 693) arms. Predictors of the primary outcome of overall survival were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Long-term adverse events over time were analyzed. At the 5-yr data cutoff, 1382 of 1717 (80%) men had died. Enzalutamide reduced the hazard of death by 17% (hazard ratio 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.93; p 5 yr of follow-up, enzalutamide continued to demonstrate improved survival in patients with mCRPC despite crossover and multiple subsequent effective therapies, balanced against a slightly higher rate of fatal cardiovascular events. PREVAIL is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT01212991. We report a maintained long-term survival benefit with enzalutamide and risks with >5 yr of enzalutamide treatment and follow-up in men with metastatic prostate cancer, and identify groups of men with widely different outcomes based on clinical factors

Association Between New Unconfirmed Bone Lesions and Outcomes in Men With Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer Treated With Enzalutamide: Secondary Analysis of the PREVAIL and AFFIRM Randomized Clinical Trials

IMPORTANCE For men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) whose condition is responding to enzalutamide, new unconfirmed bone lesions detected at posttreatment scinitigraphymay reflect an osteoblastic reaction that represents healing, known as pseudoprogression, which can lead to premature discontinuation of therapy. OBJECTIVE Todetermine the associationbetweennewunconfirmed lesionsdetectedona followup bone scintigram (bone scan) and outcomes in enzalutamide-treated men with mCRPC. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This post hoc, retrospective secondary analysis of 1672 enzalutamide-treated men from 2 phase 3, randomized mCRPC studies (PREVAIL and AFFIRM) before or after treatment with docetaxel was conducted from April 12, 2018, to July 25, 2019. Participants were men from the enzalutamide groups of the 2 studies with a decrease in prostate-specific antigen level at any time or with stable disease or soft-tissue disease responding to treatment based onradiologic findings. INTERVENTION Enzalutamide, 160mg once daily. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The clinical significance of new lesions detected on the first (early) or second (late) posttreatment bone scan, without an unfavorable change in prostate-specific antigen level or soft-tissue progression, was investigated. Associations of new unconfirmed lesions with radiographic progression-free survival, overall survival, decrease in prostate-specific antigen level, objective response in soft tissue, and quality of life were evaluated. RESULTS Among the 643 men (median age, 72 years [range, 43-93 years]) in PREVAIL, early and late unconfirmed lesionswere observed in 177 men (27.5%) with stable disease or disease responding to enzalutamide. Among the 404 men (median age, 70 years [range, 41-88 years]) in AFFIRM, early and late unconfirmed lesionswere observed in 73 men (18.1%) with stable disease or disease responding to enzalutamide. In PREVAIL, men with new unconfirmed lesions had median radiographic progression-free survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.37 [95%CI, 0.81-2.30]; P = .23) and median overall survival (HR, 1.25 [95%CI, 0.85-1.83]) in the chemotherapy-naive setting similar to men those of men without such new lesions. In AFFIRM, the median overall survival (HR, 1.94 [95%CI, 1.10-3.44])was reduced among men with unconfirmed bone lesions, but the median radiographic progression-free survivalwas not reduced (HR, 1.21 [95%CI, 0.83-1.75]; P = .32). Quality of life over timewas similar regardless of the presence of new unconfirmed lesions detected on a follow-up bone scan in either setting. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE These results suggest that new unconfirmed lesions detected on follow-up bone scans may represent pseudoprogression in men with mCRPC and are indicative of a favorable treatment response to enzalutamide. The detection of new unconfirmed bone lesions in men with mCRPC that responded to treatment with enzalutamide after docetaxel appears to be associated with worse overall survival and may represent true progression, thus highlighting the need for improved functional bone metastasis imaging

Efficacy and safety of enzalutamide in patients 75 years or older with chemotherapy-naive metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: results from PREVAIL.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer disproportionately affects older men. Because age affects treatment decisions, it is important to understand the efficacy and tolerability of therapies for advanced prostate cancer in elderly men. This analysis describes efficacy and safety outcomes in men aged ≥75 years who received enzalutamide, an androgen receptor inhibitor, in the phase III PREVAIL trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: PREVAIL was a randomised, double-blind, multinational study of oral enzalutamide 160 mg/day (N = 872) versus placebo (N = 845) in chemotherapy-naive men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. Overall survival (OS) and radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) were coprimary end points. Subgroup analysis of men aged ≥75 years (elderly) and men aged <75 years was pre-specified for the coprimary end points and adverse events (AEs). RESULTS: Among 609 elderly patients (35%) who participated in PREVAIL, median treatment duration was 16.6 and 5.0 months in the enzalutamide and placebo arms, respectively. In the elderly subgroup, OS was greater with enzalutamide than with placebo [32.4 months (95% confidence interval (CI) 27.7-not yet reached] versus 25.1 months (95% CI 22.6-28.0); hazard ratio (HR) = 0.61 (95% CI 0.47-0.79); P = 0.0001], as was rPFS [not yet reached (95% CI 12.3-not yet reached) versus 3.7 months (95% CI 3.6-5.3); HR = 0.17 (95% CI 0.12-0.24); P < 0.0001]. Irrespective of treatment assignment, incidence of AEs was similar between the two age groups, except for an overall higher incidence of falls among elderly patients than younger patients [84/609 (13.8%) versus 62/1106 (5.6%)] and among elderly patients receiving enzalutamide than those receiving placebo [61/317 (19.2%) versus 23/292 (7.9%)]. CONCLUSIONS: Elderly men benefited from treatment with enzalutamide in terms of OS and rPFS. Enzalutamide was well tolerated in the elderly subgroup and those aged <75 years. Age and enzalutamide treatment were associated with a higher incidence of falls. CLINICAL TRIAL IDENTIFIER: NCT01212991, ClinicalTrials.gov

Radiographic Progression-Free Survival as a Clinically Meaningful End Point in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer: The PREVAIL Randomized Clinical Trial.

Drug development for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer has been limited by a lack of clinically relevant trial end points short of overall survival (OS). Radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) as defined by the Prostate Cancer Clinical Trials Working Group 2 (PCWG2) is a candidate end point that represents a clinically meaningful benefit to patients. To demonstrate the robustness of the PCWG2 definition and to examine the relationship between rPFS and OS. PREVAIL was a phase 3, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled multinational study that enrolled 1717 chemotherapy-naive men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer from September 2010 through September 2012. The data were analyzed in November 2016. Patients were randomized 1:1 to enzalutamide 160 mg or placebo until confirmed radiographic disease progression or a skeletal-related event and initiation of either cytotoxic chemotherapy or an investigational agent for prostate cancer treatment. Sensitivity analyses (SAs) of investigator-assessed rPFS were performed using the final rPFS data cutoff (May 6, 2012; 439 events; SA1) and the interim OS data cutoff (September 16, 2013; 540 events; SA2). Additional SAs using investigator-assessed rPFS from the final rPFS data cutoff assessed the impact of skeletal-related events (SA3), clinical progression (SA4), a confirmatory scan for soft-tissue disease progression (SA5), and all deaths regardless of time after study drug discontinuation (SA6). Correlations between investigator-assessed rPFS (SA2) and OS were calculated using Spearman ρ and Kendall τ via Clayton copula. In the 1717 men (mean age, 72.0 [range, 43.0-93.0] years in enzalutamide arm and 71.0 [range, 42.0-93.0] years in placebo arm), enzalutamide significantly reduced risk of radiographic progression or death in all SAs, with hazard ratios of 0.22 (SA1; 95% CI, 0.18-0.27), 0.31 (SA2; 95% CI, 0.27-0.35), 0.21 (SA3; 95% CI, 0.18-0.26), 0.21 (SA4; 95% CI, 0.17-0.26), 0.23 (SA5; 95% CI, 0.19-0.30), and 0.23 (SA6; 95% CI, 0.19-0.30) (P < .001 for all). Correlations of rPFS and OS in enzalutamide-treated patients were 0.89 (95% CI, 0.86-0.92) by Spearman ρ and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.68-0.77) by Kendall τ. Sensitivity analyses in PREVAIL demonstrated the robustness of the PCWG2 rPFS definition using additional measures of progression. There was concordance between central and investigator review and a positive correlation between rPFS and OS among enzalutamide-treated patients. clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01212991