Computational simulation of the COVID-19 epidemic with the SEIR stochastic model

A small number of individuals infected within a community can lead to the rapid spread of the disease throughout that community, leading to an epidemic outbreak. This is even more true for highly contagious diseases such as COVID-19, known to be caused by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. Mathematical models of epidemics allow estimating several impacts on the population and, therefore, are of great use for the definition of public health policies. Some of these measures include the isolation of the infected (also known as quarantine), and the vaccination of the susceptible. In a possible scenario in which a vaccine is available, but with limited access, it is necessary to quantify the levels of vaccination to be applied, taking into account the continued application of preventive measures. This work concerns the simulation of the spread of the COVID-19 disease in a community by applying the Monte Carlo method to a Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Recovered (SEIR) stochastic epidemic model. To handle the computational effort involved, a simple parallelization approach was adopted and deployed in a small HPC cluster. The developed computational method allows to realistically simulate the spread of COVID-19 in a medium-sized community and to study the effect of preventive measures such as quarantine and vaccination. The results show that an effective combination of vaccination with quarantine can prevent the appearance of major epidemic outbreaks, even if the critical vaccination coverage is not reached.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Process mining: a framework proposal for pervasive business intelligence

In recent years, global growth slowed, the markets have matured and become more competitive. The impact of computing in organizations made information technology a strategic element to the acquisition and maintenance of competitive advantage. Based on the literature review in the related areas of Business Intelligence (BI) and Process Mining (PM), is presented a framework for improving the decision-making processes in organizations

Pervasive business intelligence: a marketing intelligence framework proposal

Doctoral Thesis in Information Systems and Technologies Area of Information Systems and TechnologyNos últimos anos, o crescimento mundial desacelarou, os mercados têm amadurecido e tornaram-se mais competitivos. O impacto da computação nas organizações fez das tecnologias da informação um elemento estratégico para a aquisição e manutenção da vantagem competitiva, dependendo estas dos sistemas e ferramentas de Business Intelligence (BI). Hoje, a importância estratégica da informação é fundamental para as organizações. Com a intensificação da concorrência entre as empresas em mercados abertos e muitas vezes saturados, as empresas devem aprender a conhecerem-se a si mesmas e ao mercado, através da recolha e análise de informação de qualidade. A informação estratégica é vista como um recurso fundamental para o sucesso do negócio, a qual é fornecida pelos sistemas de Marketing Intelligence (MKTI). O MKTI é um processo complexo que vai desde a recolha de dados do ambiente competitivo das organizações, ás informações criadas para auxiliar a tomada de decisões de gestão e a estratégia de marketing. Uma estratégia de negócio bem-sucedida requer uma tomada de consciência do ambiente interno e externo das organizações, incluindo clientes, concorrentes, a estrutura da indústria e as forças competitivas. A gestão do futuro não significa apenas ser capaz de antecipar o que vai acontecer fora da organização, mas também ser capaz de representar os eventos através das suas próprias ações. Com base na revisão de literatura realizada no âmbito do Business Intelligence e áreas relacionadas, os objetivos e motivação para esta tese foram identificados, permitindo a escolha do tema desta. Apercebemo-nos da inexistência de literatura e estudos suficientes, sobre questões relacionadas com o Pervasive Business Intelligence (PBI) e Marketing Intelligence, e assim o problema de investigação foi identificado, considerando as necessidades dos gestores de marketing na obtenção de informações de apoio à decisão em tempo útil, permitindolhes ser proactivos e enfrentar a concorrência, alavancados pelas capacidades dos sistemas e ferramentas de PBI, que permitem que os sistemas de BI cheguem a todos os níveis da organização, no momento certo e com as informações necessárias. O objetivo deste estudo é desenvolver um framework conceptual para auxiliar os marketers no processo de tomada de decisão, alavancado por várias tecnologias, estratégias e recursos para uma inovação sustentável. Pretende-se integrar os processos de MKTI em sistemas Pervasive Business Intelligence através do desenvolvimento de um framework com o objetivo de auxiliar na recolha e pré-processamento de dados e sua divulgação de forma sistemática, a fim de auxiliar os marketers na tomada de decisões. O framework proposto foi avaliado por um painel de especialistas, tendo sido aplicada a metodologia Delphi na aferição deste. Esperamos que esta pesquisa possa ser considerado como um contributo para uma melhor compreensão da aplicação da MKTI em sistemas PBI, possibilitando ás organizações alcançar e manter uma vantagem competitiva sustentável.In recent years world growth slowed, markets have matured and become more competitive. The impact of computing in organizations made information technology a strategic element for the acquisition and maintenance of competitive advantage, as those dependent on Business Intelligence systems (BI) and tools. Today the strategic significance of information is fundamental to organizations. With the intensification of competition between companies in open markets and often saturated, companies must learn to know themselves and to the market through the collection and analysis of quality information. The strategic information is seen as a key resource for success in the business, which is provided by Marketing Intelligence (MKTI). MKTI is a complex process that goes from the collection of data from the organizations competitive environment, to the information generated to assist management decision making and strategic marketing. A successful business strategy requires an awareness of the internal and external environment of organizations, including customers, competitors, industry structure and competitive forces. Managing the future means not only be able to anticipate what will happen outside the organization, but also be able to represent the events through their own actions. Based on the a literature review, carried under the Business Intelligence and related areas, objectives and motivation have been identified, allowing the thesis theme choice. We realize the lack of sufficient literature and studies on issues related to Pervasive Business Intelligence (PBI) and Marketing Intelligence, and thus the research problem was identified considering the needs of marketers to have information to support timely decision, allowing them to be proactive and face competition, leveraged by the capabilities of PBI systems and tools, that enable BI systems reach all levels of the organization, at the right time and with the necessary information. The objective of this research is to develop a conceptual framework to assist marketers in decision making process, leveraging various technologies, strategies, and resources for sustainable innovation. We intended integrate the processes of MKTI in PBI system through the development of a framework with the objective of assisting in the collection and pre-processing of information and its dissemination systematically, in order to assist marketers in decision making.. The proposed framework was evaluated by a expert panel, for that, it was applied the Delphi methodology to assess the framework. We hope that this research will be considered as a contribution to a better understanding of the application of MKTI in PBI systems, which will enable organizations can achieve and maintain a sustainable competitive advantage

The impact of cloud computing and virtualization on business

In the begin cloud computing was seen as a thing of “startup” and visionary users, but nowadays it is a reality in organizations of any sector, type and size. Investments in data centers are replaced by the consumption of IT resources from a cloud provider. There are several types of virtualization, and that essentially means the abstraction of computational resources for different purposes; one of the ways, widely used, is to create virtual machines, which simulate a complete environment with software and hardware resources for the user. Despite being a technique that has existed for a long time, the growth of cloud computing has made this concept to bewidely discussed. Significant innovations in virtualization, distributed computing, high-speed communications, and IoT, have aroused more and more interest in Cloud Computing. In this sense, we will analyze and evaluate the impact of cloud computing and virtualization on organizations.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Deterministic and stochastic simulation of the COVID-19 epidemic with the SEIR model

This work regards the simulation of the spread of the COVID-19 disease in a community by applying the deterministic and stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Recovered (SEIR) epidemic models. The developed computational method for the stochastic variant allows to realistically simulate the spread of COVID-19 in a medium-sized community and to study the effect of preventive measures such as quarantine and vaccination. The results of the simulations are compared with the deterministic version of the SEIR model. The comparison makes it possible to conclude that the epidemic outbreak can be prevented even though the basic reproduction number is greater than one.UNIAG, unidade de I&D financiada pela FCT, Ministerio da Ciencia, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior. Projeto n°. UIDB/04752/2020.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Associazione adenocarcinoma polmonare ovino-maedi in polmoni ovini naturalmente infetti: topologia di Jaagsiekte sheep retrovirus

L'Adenocarcinoma Polmonare Ovino (OPAC) o Adenomatosi Polmonare, è un tumore contagioso dei piccoli ruminanti a lento sviluppo e basso indice di metastatizzazione, il cui agente eziologico è un retrovirus tipo-D denominato Jaagsiekte Sheep Retrovirus (JSRV). Nel il 10% circa dei casi, la patologia risulta associata a pneumopatie interstiziali croniche causate da Maedi Visna Virus (MVV), lentivirus tipo-B responsabile anche di lesioni encefaliche, mammarie e articolari (1). L'esistenza e la qualità di eventuali sinergie fra i due virus è stata più volte sospettata ma non ha ancora trovato convincenti conferme sperimentali. Con l'obiettivo di verificare la distribuzione cellulare di JSRV in corso di OPAC associato a Maedi, abbiamo condotto prove ibridocitochimiche ed immunoistochimiche su polmoni ovini naturalmente infetti dai due virus e su controlli negativi e di reagente. Sono stati utilizzati a tal scopo: i) un protocollo di PCR-in situ specifico per DNA provirale di JSRV esogeno (Sanna et al, 2001); ii) un anticorpo policlonale sviluppato contro il major capsid antigen (MCA) di JSRV e gentilmente messo a disposizione dal Dr. Chris Cousens del Moredun Research Institute, Edinburgh (UK)

Importance of pilot navigation planning in naval squad units

¿Qué tienen en común la Tragedia Naval de Honda Point, en 1923, con los incidentes de varamientos del USS Hartford en 2003, del USS Port Royal en 2009, del USS Guardian en 2013 y del USS Antietnam en 2017? En pleno siglo XXI, los accidentes que involucran a uno o más buques de guerra, siguen ocurriendo, a pesar de los avances tecnológicos, o de las mejoras en cuánto a lo que se conoce con respecto a la navegación. El propósito de este artículo es suministrar una relación entre una de las fases iniciales del proceso de navegar: la planificación del pilotaje, y su aplicación en la seguridad de la navegación, con un enfoque actual dirigido a los buques de guerra. Para ello, se han recogido conclusiones de siniestros, y cuidadosamente se han revisado publicaciones y autores, para después analizar el papel del factor humano en la planificación y el pilotaje, así como el entorno operacional en el cual actúa el buque. El trabajo concluye con algunas consideraciones que pueden ser tomadas como recomendaciones.What do the Honda Point Naval Tragedy in 1923 have in common with the stranding incidents of the USS Hartford in 2003, the USS Port Royal in 2009, the USS Guardian in 2013 and the USS Antietnam in 2017? In the 21st century, accidents involving one or more warships continue to occur, despite technological advances, or improvements in what is known about navigation. The purpose of this article is to provide a relationship between one of the initial phases of the navigation process: pilot planning, and its application in navigation safety, with a current approach to warships. To this end, claims conclusions have been collected, and publications and authors have been carefully reviewed, and then analyzed the role of the human factor in planning and piloting, as well as the operational environment in which the vessel operates. The work concludes with some considerations that can be taken as recommendations.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio