Is It Possible to Predict the Length of Stay of Patients Undergoing Hip-Replacement Surgery?

The proximal fracture of the femur and hip is the most common reason for hospitalization in orthopedic departments. In Italy, 115,989 hip-replacement surgeries were performed in 2019, showing the economic relevance of studying this type of procedure. This study analyzed the data relating to patients who underwent hip-replacement surgery in the years 2010-2020 at the "San Giovanni di Dio e Ruggi d'Aragona" University Hospital of Salerno. The multiple linear regression (MLR) model and regression and classification algorithms were implemented in order to predict the total length of stay (LOS). Lastly, using a statistical analysis, the impact of COVID-19 was evaluated. The results obtained from the regression analysis showed that the best model was MLR, with an R2 value of 0.616, compared with XGBoost, Gradient-Boosted Tree, and Random Forest, with R2 values of 0.552, 0.543, and 0.448, respectively. The t-test showed that the variables that most influenced the LOS, with the exception of pre-operative LOS, were gender, age, anemia, fracture/dislocation, and urinary disorders. Among the classification algorithms, the best result was obtained with Random Forest, with a sensitivity of the longest LOS of over 89%. In terms of the overall accuracy, Random Forest and Gradient-Boosted Tree achieved a value of 71.76% and an error of 28.24%, followed by Decision Tree, with an accuracy of 71.13% and an error of 28.87%, and, finally, Support Vector Machine, with an accuracy of 65.06% and an error of 34.94%. A significant difference in cardiovascular disease, fracture/dislocation, and post-operative LOS variables was shown by the chi-squared test and Mann-Whitney test in the comparison between 2019 (before COVID-19) and 2020 (in full pandemic emergency conditions)

Application of Supply Chain Management at Drugs Flow in an Italian Hospital District

The globalization has pushed to change the organization of every companies, even the hospitals. The principal phenomenon in that period and fundamental today again, has been the Supply Chain Management (SCM), with which the company is no longer seen as an isolated entity but active part in an extremely complex supply network. In fact, the only way to guarantee the competitiveness of businesses in the new world economy is through the cooperation and the integration between customers and suppliers. The present work analyses the drugs flow of three Italian hospital: the Cardarelli Hospital in Campobasso, the Veneziale located in Isernia and the San Timoteo site in Termoli. The data was provided by MOLISE DATA SPA that collected the information from all ASREM with particular interest in the already mentioned hospitals. Particularly, will be highlight, using simulation model, the benefits deriving from the implementation of a new Supply Chain, creating a collaboration along the entire logistics production chain. Thanks to a more efficient management of drugs will get a reduction of business costs and an improvement of the health services offered

Modelling the length of hospital stay after knee replacement surgery through Machine Learning and Multiple Linear Regression at San Giovanni di Dio e Ruggi daAragonaa University Hospital

Knee arthroplasty is one of the most commonly performed procedures within a hospital. The progressive aging of the population and the spread of clinical conditions such as obesity will lead to an increasing use of this procedure. Therefore, being able to make the process related to this procedure more effective and efficient becomes strategic within hospitals, subject to increasingly stringent clinical and financial pressures. A useful parameter for this purpose is the length of stay (LOS), whose early prediction allows for better bed management and resource allocation, models patient expectations and facilitates discharge planning. In this work, the data of 124 patients who underwent knee surgery in the two-year period 2019-2020 at the San Giovanni di Dio and Ruggi d’Aragona university hospital were studied using multiple linear regression and machine learning algorithms in order to evaluate and predict how patient data affect LOS

Multiple regression model to analyze the total LOS for patients undergoing laparoscopic appendectomy

The rapid growth in the complexity of services and stringent quality requirements present a challenge to all healthcare facilities, especially from an economic perspective. The goal is to implement different strategies that allows to enhance and obtain health processes closer to standards. The Length Of Stay (LOS) is a very useful parameter for the management of services within the hospital and is an index evaluated for the management of costs. In fact, a patient's LOS can be affected by a number of factors, including their particular condition, medical history, or medical needs. To reduce and better manage the LOS it is necessary to be able to predict this value

Predictive Analysis of Hospital Stay after Caesarean Section: A Single-Center Study

Caesarean section (CS) rate has seen a significant increase in recent years, especially in industrialized countries. There are, in fact, several causes that justify a CS; however, evidence is emerging that non-obstetric factors may contribute to the decision. In reality, CS is not a risk-free procedure. The intra-operative, post-pregnancy risks and risks for children are just a few examples. From a cost point of view, it must be considered that CS requires longer recovery times, and women often stay hospitalized for several days. This study analyzed data from 12,360 women who underwent CS at the “San Giovanni di Dio e Ruggi D’Aragona” University Hospital between 2010 and 2020 by multiple regression algorithms, including multiple linear regression (MLR), Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Tree, XGBoost, and linear regression, classification algorithms and neural network in order to study the variation of the dependent variable (total LOS) as a function of a group of independent variables. We identify the MLR model as the most suitable because it achieves an R-value of 0.845, but the neural network had the best performance (R = 0.944 for the training set). Among the independent variables, Pre-operative LOS, Cardiovascular disease, Respiratory disorders, Hypertension, Diabetes, Haemorrhage, Multiple births, Obesity, Pre-eclampsia, Complicating previous delivery, Urinary and gynaecological disorders, and Complication during surgery were the variables that significantly influence the LOS. Among the classification algorithms, the best is Random Forest, with an accuracy as high as 77%. The simple regression model allowed us to highlight the comorbidities that most influence the total LOS and to show the parameters on which the hospital management must focus for better resource management and cost reduction

Implementation of Predictive Algorithms for the Study of the Endarterectomy LOS

Background: In recent years, the length of hospital stay (LOS) following endarterectomy has decreased significantly from 4 days to 1 day. LOS is influenced by several common complications and factors that can adversely affect the patient’s health and may vary from one healthcare facility to another. The aim of this work is to develop a forecasting model of the LOS value to investigate the main factors affecting LOS in order to save healthcare cost and improve management. Methods: We used different regression and machine learning models to predict the LOS value based on the clinical and organizational data of patients undergoing endarterectomy. Data were obtained from the discharge forms of the “San Giovanni di Dio e Ruggi d’Aragona” University Hospital (Salerno, Italy). R2 goodness of fit and the results in terms of accuracy, precision, recall and F1-score were used to compare the performance of various algorithms. Results: Before implementing the models, the preliminary correlation study showed that LOS was more dependent on the type of endarterectomy performed. Among the regression algorithms, the best was the multiple linear regression model with an R2 value of 0.854, while among the classification algorithms for LOS divided into classes, the best was decision tree, with an accuracy of 80%. The best performance was obtained in the third class, which identifies patients with prolonged LOS, with a precision of 95%. Among the independent variables, the most influential on LOS was type of endarterectomy, followed by diabetes and kidney disorders. Conclusion: The resulting forecast model demonstrates its effectiveness in predicting the value of LOS that could be used to improve the endarterectomy surgery planning

Classification and regression model to manage the hospitalization for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Abstract Gallstone disease (GD) is one of the most common morbidities in the world. Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy (LC) is currently the gold standard, performed in about 96% of cases. The most affected groups are the elderly, who generally have higher pre- and post-operative morbidity and mortality rates and longer Length of Stay (LOS). For this reason, several indicators have been defined to improve quality and efficiency and contain costs. In this study, data from patients who underwent LC at the “San Giovanni di Dio e Ruggi d’Aragona” University Hospital of Salerno in the years 2010–2020 were processed using a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model and Classification algorithms in order to identify the variables that most influence LOS. The results of the 2352 patients analyzed showed that pre-operative LOS and Age were the independent variables that most affected LOS. In particular, MLR model had a R2 value equal to 0.537 and the best classification algorithm, Decision Tree, had an accuracy greater than 83%. In conclusion, both the MLR model and the classification algorithms produced significant results that could provide important support in the management of this healthcare process

A comparison of different Machine Learning algorithms for predicting the length of hospital stay for patients undergoing cataract surgery

The advancement of surgical techniques, the use of new drug therapies and the introduction of innovative medical devices have brought excellent results in all surgical disciplines, including Ophthalmology. This development, however, takes place in a difficult economic and financial context, especially for Italy, the reference country for this study. In this context, being able to obtain as standardized procedures as possible helps to provide a more appropriate response by maximizing the use of available resources. A parameter used in the literature is the Length of Stay (LOS). In this study, Machine Learning algorithms were used to build a classifier capable of predicting the total LOS of patients who undergone a surgery for the exportation of the natural crystalline lens with phacoemulsification starting from a set of independent variables. Random Forest proved to be the best algorithm for this application with an accuracy of over 90%