National and subnational projections of elderly living arrangements: an application of the net transition probability macrosimulation model

Recently, McDonald et al. (2006) outlined a new method of projecting living arrangements, households and dwellings at the national and subnational level, using quinquennial census data. The purpose of this paper is to apply this new simulation method to project the composition of elderly living arrangements at the national and subnational level in Australia over the period 2001 to 2016. This study presents projections of living arrangements for Temporal Statistical Districts within New South Wales and for Australia as a whole. Results show a strong increase in the number of the elderly living alone, particularly elderly males. The rate of growth in lone-person households is particularly strong in coastal and regional New South Wales, underlining the importance of capturing subnational differences in probabilities of births, deaths, migration and household movements when producing regional projections of living arrangements. This paper concludes by considering implications of the findings and potential uses of the net transition probability method

Is demography destiny? The role of structural and demographic factors in Australia's past and future labour supply

Following the release of the Intergenerational Report, the Australian Treasury identified the levers to address the economic effects of demographic ageing as 'the three Ps': population, participation and productivity. To date, the first 'P', population, has been treated as an exogenous factor, with the common view being that there is very little that the government can do to supplant demographic ageing. Focusing upon labour supply, this paper shows how variation in Australia's underlying demography can significantly alter Australia's future labour supply. Although governments cannot redirect the cohort flow component of population ageing, much can be achieved in promoting growth of the labour supply by maintaining or increasing fertility (in the longer term), or increasing targeted migration (in the short to medium term). This paper also decomposes the relative role of cohort flow, changing demography and changing labour force participation on the growth of the labour supply over the past 20 years. Over this period, the entry of the baby boom generation (cohort flow) and increased tabour force participation of women accounted for almost all of the growth in the labour force. Changing demography had very little effect. However, Australia's future tabour supply will not include a large increase in cohort flow (as caused by the baby boomers) or a very large increase in female labour force participation. Regardless of the assumptions used, labour supply growth will be considerably lower in the next and subsequent 20 years, when compared to the previous 20

Food insecurity: Discrepancy within Australian couple households

© 2024 The Authors. Australian Journal of Social Issues published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australian Social Policy Association. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY), https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Food security remains a global public health priority but there may be bias in the prevalence of household food insecurity, depending upon who answers the questions. Using a cross‐section from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, we analysed components of food insecurity reported separately by both partners in 718 households, allowing examination of discrepancies among couples. We modelled discrepancy in reports of food insecurity on 8 items using binary logit models for each question and a binomial regression for the number of questions on which there was discrepancy. Among couples who differed on an item, (conditional) discrepancy rates ranged from 71.75% to 85.86%. Females were more likely than males to report food insecurity on most items. Key characteristics associated with discrepancy were female's and male's age, female's education, being born in Australia, renting and male's employment. Male's age and birthplace were associated with discrepancy on more items while male's higher education and being a homeowner were associated with discrepancy on fewer items. Among couples who differed in responses, females were more likely to report food insecurity if they were older or had a disability, if their male partner was younger or had no disability, or if either person had more education than high school. The prevalence of food insecurity among couple households may be underestimated by 7.4 percentage points due to discrepancies in reporting. Discrepancies can reduce the accuracy of measures of food insecurity, impeding the targeting of responses, and lead to a less efficient allocation of resources to combat food insecurity.Peer reviewe

National transfer accounts for Australia: 2003-04 and 2009-10 detailed results

Similar to other OECD countries, the Australian population is projected to age significantly to 2050 and beyond. In this context, the role of mature age Australians as producers of goods and services and consumers of public resources in particular, has become a key issue in academic and policy discussions. Indeed, many policy changes have occurred over previous decades on the production and consumption side to offset potential costs of population ageing. For example, policies to encourage or support mature age labour force participation (e.g., through the Experience+ training package) and to reduce public expenditure on this growing demographic (for example, through lifting the eligibility age for the Age Pension).Funding for the development of the Australian NTA has been provided by the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Australian Research Council through an Ageing Well Ageing Productively grant (ID 401158) and the Australian Research Council’s Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CE0300006)

Projecting the sexual minority population: Methods, data, and illustrative projections for Australia

Background: Attitudes to sexual minorities have undergone a transformation in many Western countries in recent decades. With much greater public acceptance, and an increase in policies and legislation to support equality and outlaw discrimination, the need for population statistics on sexual minority populations has grown. However, such statistics remain rare: Only a few sets of population estimates have been produced in a small number of countries, and there are no population projections of which we are aware. Objective: The aims of this paper are to introduce a model for producing projections of a national population by sexual identity, suggest ways in which data and conceptual limitations can be handled, and present illustrative population projections for Australia. Methods: An adapted multistate cohort-component is described, along with various data sources and approaches for preparing plausible projection assumptions. Two illustrative scenarios for the future of Australia's sexual minority population over the 2016-2041 period are presented. Results: According to the selected scenarios, Australia's sexual minority population is projected to increase rapidly over the coming decades, rising from 0.65 million in 2016 to between 1.25 and 1.57 million by 2041. This growth is generated by sexual minority cohort flow - the gradual replacement of cohorts with lower proportions of sexual minority identification by those with the higher proportions - and identification change. The overall share of the population identifying with a sexual minority identity is likely to increase. Conclusions: Although the projections remain illustrative and approximate, the likely coming growth of the sexual minority population signals multiple social, health, and economic policy implications ahead. Contribution: The paper presents a novel projection method and example projections of an under-researched and stigmatised population

Culturally competent communication in Indigenous disability assessment: a qualitative study

Background: Indigenous people tend to exhibit a higher burden of disability than their non-Indigenous counterparts, and are often underserved by disability services. Engaging appropriately with Indigenous communities, families and individuals in the initial stages of disability assessment and planning is crucial in order to build trust and understanding of disability service models and ensure that Indigenous people receive support that is tailored to their needs and cultural realities. This article aims to identify key elements of culturally competent communication in Indigenous disability assessment and planning, and provide recommendations for strengthening capacity in this area. Methods: This qualitative research was designed to involve Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people at all stages and to reflect the views of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander researchers, people and families affected by disability and the community-controlled health sector. Semi-structured individual interviews were undertaken with staff implementing the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) (n = 4), NDIS participants (n = 24), disability support providers and organisational partners (n = 19) and Community Connectors (n = 8) in Queensland and the Northern Territory of Australia. Key themes derived from thematic analysis included appropriate and adequate engagement of individuals with disability and their families, the role of trusted relationships, and culturally safe and appropriate communication during planning meetings. Results: Overall, the research findings highlight that a low level of cultural competence in the initial stages of the disability assessment and planning process exacerbated participant confusion and distrust towards assessment staff and the NDIS. Given difficulties in communication, participant understanding of the NDIS was generally limited. The necessity of culturally safe and appropriate use of interpreters was stressed, as was the role of trusted individuals, including existing service providers, Community Connectors and family members in providing a solid base for participant understanding of the NDIS. Conclusions: Cultural competence in disability assessment and planning can be strengthened through multi-level engagement with the Aboriginal community-controlled sector and community leaders. Implementing mechanisms to enable the involvement of families, trusted service providers and Community Connectors can support a more meaningful understanding of individuals’ needs within their cultural context and in relation to their cultural roles

Culturally competent communication in Indigenous disability assessment: a qualitative study

Background: Indigenous people tend to exhibit a higher burden of disability than their non-Indigenous counterparts, and are often underserved by disability services. Engaging appropriately with Indigenous communities, families and individuals in the initial stages of disability assessment and planning is crucial in order to build trust and understanding of disability service models and ensure that Indigenous people receive support that is tailored to their needs and cultural realities. This article aims to identify key elements of culturally competent communication in Indigenous disability assessment and planning, and provide recommendations for strengthening capacity in this area. Methods: This qualitative research was designed to involve Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people at all stages and to reflect the views of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander researchers, people and families affected by disability and the community-controlled health sector. Semi-structured individual interviews were undertaken with staff implementing the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) (n = 4), NDIS participants (n = 24), disability support providers and organisational partners (n = 19) and Community Connectors (n = 8) in Queensland and the Northern Territory of Australia. Key themes derived from thematic analysis included appropriate and adequate engagement of individuals with disability and their families, the role of trusted relationships, and culturally safe and appropriate communication during planning meetings. Results: Overall, the research findings highlight that a low level of cultural competence in the initial stages of the disability assessment and planning process exacerbated participant confusion and distrust towards assessment staff and the NDIS. Given difficulties in communication, participant understanding of the NDIS was generally limited. The necessity of culturally safe and appropriate use of interpreters was stressed, as was the role of trusted individuals, including existing service providers, Community Connectors and family members in providing a solid base for participant understanding of the NDIS. Conclusions: Cultural competence in disability assessment and planning can be strengthened through multi-level engagement with the Aboriginal community-controlled sector and community leaders. Implementing mechanisms to enable the involvement of families, trusted service providers and Community Connectors can support a more meaningful understanding of individuals’ needs within their cultural context and in relation to their cultural roles

Explaining the private health insurance coverage of older Australians

This article examines older Australians’ decision to purchase health insurance. It does so in the context of recent reforms to the Australian health insurance market. Findings suggest that economic, demographic and health factors are associated with an older household’s decision to purchase health insurance. Specifically, persons with low levels of income and education, and those living alone or born overseas are least likely to hold health insurance in old age. The author suggests that it is this group of older Australians who may experience difficulties accessing elective surgery in a timely fashion. The author concludes by suggesting that the age component of ‘Life Time Health Cover’ may disadvantage future cohorts of the aged

Food Insecurity Among Older Australians: Prevalence, Correlates and Well-being

Objectives: The purpose of this study is to examine (i) the prevalence of food insecurity among older persons, (ii) the characteristics of the food insecure and (iii) the association between food insecurity and well-being. Methods: The 2001 National Health Survey is used to measure the prevalence of food insecurity. Multivariate analysis is conducted using rare events logistic regression. Results: Almost 3% of Australians aged 55 years and over, and 7% of those aged under 55 are estimated to be food insecure. Lone males and females are more likely to experience food insecurity when compared to couples. Low-income earners and those with multiple long-term conditions are at a heightened risk of food insecurity. The probability of food insecurity decreases with age. Persons who are food insecure perform poorly against self-reported measures of well-being. Conclusions: Although the prevalence of food insecurity is low, a definite social gradient exists in those at risk