Decision Analysis in Fire Safety Engineering - Analysing Investments in Fire Safety

The application of decision analytical methods to the evaluation of investments in fire safety was investigated, particularly with the aim of being able to suggest a method for analysing a specific investment in fire safety for a specific factory. Attention was directed above all at the handling of cases of large epistemic uncertainty regarding both probabilities and utilities, Bayesian decision theory serving as a basis for the development of the method. Two extensions of the decision rule used in Bayesian decision theory (the principle of maximising expected utility) were suggested for use in the present context. Together with a model for calculating the expected utility of a specific investment, they provide an evaluatory framework for the analysis of investments in fire safety. The major contributions of the thesis to the area of decision analysis within fire safety engineering are that it provides a better understanding of the use of different decision analytical approaches in a context such as the present one, that it highlights problems of evaluation when large epistemic uncertainties are present, that it suggests a solution for use in such a case, and that it suggests a way in which the reduction in risk can be evaluated in terms of monetary value

Riskbaserad utvärdering av alternativ brandskyddsutformning av byggnader

In this report a riskbased method is used to verify the fire protection in a fictitious building. The purpose of the report is to evaluate if it is possible to use a riskbased method when performing the construction of the fire protection in a building. The riskbased method is used to calculate the risk, with respect to the occupants, associated with an accepted fire protection solution according to the Swedish building regulations. This risk is then compared to the risk calculated for an alternative fire protection solution and if the risk associated with the alternative design is less than the acceptable solutions risk then the alternative solution is judged to be acceptable. It is found that the risk method is practicable and useful. However, in a real design situation more investigations concerning uncertainties has to be performed

How is capability assessment related to risk assessment? Evaluating existing research and current application from a design science perspective

Several countries use capability assessments as a part of their efforts to manage risk. However, it is unclear how such assessments are connected to other risk management activities, e.g. risk assessment. Therefore, the aim of the present paper is to present a study of how capability assessment is related to risk assessment. Capability assessment methods were identified through a scoping study and the Swedish capability assessment method was investigated through interviews with Swedish public actors and analysis of legislative documents. The data was analysed using a design science perspective. The results of the analysis show that the purposes presented for some capability assessment methods are the same or similar to purposes common to risk assessment methods, and the actual form of some of the methods is similar to existing risk assessment methods. Nevertheless, the relationship between capability assessment and risk assessment is unclear. We conclude that if capability assessments are going to continue to be an important part of risk management activities more research is needed to better establish the relationship between risk assessment and capability assessment

Designing societal safety: A study of the Swedish crisis management system

Design is an activity aimed at solving an unsolved problem or improving an existing solution. In the area of societal safety, there are many activities that could be classified as design activities. For example when different actors are implementing measures to mitigate certain risk scenarios or when they are considering actions that could improve their capability to respond to various crises. We provide a descriptive study of how design problems are dealt with in the Swedish crisis management system. Our focus is on the risk and vulnerability analyses that are conducted annually by most Swedish authorities, and on efforts to improve various actors’ command and control capability. Within these two areas, both highly relevant for societal safety, we analyse how the actors address design problem using a framework inspired by design science. We present the results from a content analysis of all risk and vulnerability analyses (RVA:s) performed by the county administrative boards (regional level) in 2010 (there are 21 such boards in Sweden) and from 14 semi-structured interviews with representatives for various local and regional authorities in Sweden conducted in 2011. We conclude that when measures to reduce risk or improve crisis management capability are suggested in the RVA:s the context in which the measures are supposed to be useful in are not always described (including description of scenarios). Moreover, the effect of implementing the suggested measures are not explicitly described in any of the RVA:s. The results from the interview study indicates that leaving out or not describing important information explicitly when conducting design activities is not a phenomenon isolated to RVA:s but is also present when, for example, suggesting measures to improve command and control capability

Final report: A participatory method for need based capacity development projects and programmes

The three-year research project funded by MSB applies design science, in combination with traditional scientific investigation, to develop a method to guide the planning phase of capacity development projects for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. The method facilitates local participation and ownership as it builds on the strengths of the Logical Framework Approach (LFA), while contextualising it to suit capacity development for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

Evolutionary Trends in the Physciaceae

The current delimitation of the family Physciaceae has been generally accepted since detailed descriptions of ascus characters allowed for a more natural circumscription of lichenized ascomycetes. The generic relations within the family are, however, still controversial and depend on the importance different authors attribute to specific morphological or chemical characteristics. The aim of this paper is to describe ascospore ontogeny and to test the present taxonomic structure of the family against a parsimony-based cladistic analysis, which includes three different scenarios of a priori character weighting. A study of ascospore ontogeny revealed two distinct developmental lines. One line revealed a delayed septum formation, which clearly showed transitions from spores with apical and median thickenings to spores without apical, but still well developed median thickenings, and to spores without any thickenings. In the second developmental line with an early septum formation again taxa with no thickenings, median thickenings, and both median and apical thickenings were found. Although these characters were constant at a species level, median wall thickenings especially varied among otherwise closely related taxa. In the cladistic analyses the current taxonomic structure of the Physciaceae was only obtained after the five character groups, namely morphology and anatomy of the vegetative thallus, conidiomata and conidia, morphology and anatomy of the apothecia, ontogeny of the ascospores, and secondary metabolites of the thallus, were given equal importance, and after a subjective a priori weighting further increased the weight of the three characters ‘conidial shape', ‘presence of apical thickenings', and ‘spore septation delayed'. This structure was not supported by a cladistic analysis with equally weighted characters but reflected the biased character weighting of the present day Physdaceae taxonomy. The taxonomic importance of conidial characters and of anatomical and ontogenetical spore characteristics need, therefore, a careful reconsideration in futur

The capability concept – On how to define and describe capability in relation to risk, vulnerability and resilience

Capabilities-based planning and capability assessment are high on the agendas of several countries and organisations as part of their risk management and emergency preparedness. Despite this, few definitions of capability exist, and they are not easily related to concepts such as risk, vulnerability and resilience. The aim of the present study was thus to broaden the scientific basis of the risk field to also include the concept of capability. The proposed definition is based on a recently developed risk framework, and we define capability as the uncertainty about and the severity of the consequences of an activity given the occurrence of the initiating event and the performed task. We provide examples of how the response capability for a fictive scenario can be described using this definition, and illustrate how our definition can be used to analyse capability assessments prepared according to the Swedish crisis management system. We have analysed the content of 25 capability assessments produced in 2011 by stakeholders on local, regional and national level. It was concluded that none addressed uncertainty to any appreciable extent, and only a third described capability in terms of consequences and task, making it difficult to relate these capability assessments to risk assessments