Exact Post Model Selection Inference for Marginal Screening

We develop a framework for post model selection inference, via marginal screening, in linear regression. At the core of this framework is a result that characterizes the exact distribution of linear functions of the response $y$, conditional on the model being selected (``condition on selection" framework). This allows us to construct valid confidence intervals and hypothesis tests for regression coefficients that account for the selection procedure. In contrast to recent work in high-dimensional statistics, our results are exact (non-asymptotic) and require no eigenvalue-like assumptions on the design matrix $X$. Furthermore, the computational cost of marginal regression, constructing confidence intervals and hypothesis testing is negligible compared to the cost of linear regression, thus making our methods particularly suitable for extremely large datasets. Although we focus on marginal screening to illustrate the applicability of the condition on selection framework, this framework is much more broadly applicable. We show how to apply the proposed framework to several other selection procedures including orthogonal matching pursuit, non-negative least squares, and marginal screening+Lasso

Gaussian processes, kinematic formulae and Poincar\'e's limit

We consider vector valued, unit variance Gaussian processes defined over stratified manifolds and the geometry of their excursion sets. In particular, we develop an explicit formula for the expectation of all the Lipschitz--Killing curvatures of these sets. Whereas our motivation is primarily probabilistic, with statistical applications in the background, this formula has also an interpretation as a version of the classic kinematic fundamental formula of integral geometry. All of these aspects are developed in the paper. Particularly novel is the method of proof, which is based on a an approximation to the canonical Gaussian process on the $n$-sphere. The $n\to\infty$ limit, which gives the final result, is handled via recent extensions of the classic Poincar\'e limit theorem.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOP439 the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Rotation and scale space random fields and the Gaussian kinematic formula

We provide a new approach, along with extensions, to results in two important papers of Worsley, Siegmund and coworkers closely tied to the statistical analysis of fMRI (functional magnetic resonance imaging) brain data. These papers studied approximations for the exceedence probabilities of scale and rotation space random fields, the latter playing an important role in the statistical analysis of fMRI data. The techniques used there came either from the Euler characteristic heuristic or via tube formulae, and to a large extent were carefully attuned to the specific examples of the paper. This paper treats the same problem, but via calculations based on the so-called Gaussian kinematic formula. This allows for extensions of the Worsley-Siegmund results to a wide class of non-Gaussian cases. In addition, it allows one to obtain results for rotation space random fields in any dimension via reasonably straightforward Riemannian geometric calculations. Previously only the two-dimensional case could be covered, and then only via computer algebra. By adopting this more structured approach to this particular problem, a solution path for other, related problems becomes clearer.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOS1055 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org