Repricing Made-To-Order Production Programs.

Planned procurement quantities in made-to-order production programs are often altered after production has started. Cost analysts are concerned about providing cost estimates for alternatives to ongoing programs. This research develops a new model for repricing made-to-order production programs. It is an effort to integrate a theoretically developed production phase prediction model into a comprehensive repricing model. The production model is defined by a cost function that employs the impact of two cost determinants, production rate and learning. It is supported by economic theory and is consistent with our knowledge of made-to-order production process. The theoretical model links the direct costs to delivery schedules under the assumption that the firm attempts to optimize production rate over time. Actual delivery schedule data are used in the estimation of the direct variable cost. The repricing model, besides the direct variable cost, also considers the effects of fixed cost, business base, and expenditure profile. An explicit decision support system is developed that utilizes the model. This support system is used to test the validity of the model and to illustrate the estimation results

Measuring banking efficiency in the pre- and post-liberalization environment : evidence from the Turkish banking system

The authors examine banking efficiency before and after liberalization, drawing on Turkey's experience. They also investigate the scale effect on efficiency by type of ownership. Their findings suggest that liberalization programs were followed by an observable decline in efficiency, not an improvement. During the study period Turkish banks did not operate at the optimum scale. Another unexpected result was that efficiency was no different between state-owned and privately owned banks. Banks that were privately owned or foreign owned had been expected to respond better to liberalization, because they were smaller and more dynamically structured, but they were no more efficient than state-owned banks. One reason for the systemwide decline in efficiency might have been the general increase in macroeconomic instability during the period studied.Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring,Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Financial Intermediation,Economic Theory&Research

Measuring banking efficiency in the pre- and post-liberalization environment : evidence from the Turkish banking system

Cevdet Denizer; Mustafa Dinc; Murat Tarimcila

Integrating models for regional development decisions: A policy perspective

This paper develops and demonstrates a combined set of models to capture regional development decision processes. The results of the models are then integrated along with other socio-political factors within a policy relevant decision methodology framework. The Haynes and Dinc (1997) extension of the shift-share model identifies regional industrial sectors for analysis based on their scale, productivity and sources of productivity change. By employing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the efficiency of these lead sectors is investigated and the future competitiveness of these sectors is evaluated. By incorporating input-output analysis the impact of inter-sectoral transactions on sectoral efficiency is assessed. Since in most cases state economic development planning and implementation processes also involve political judgements, based on the findings of the above models, the study suggests a decision support framework which combines the above mentioned quantitative tools with other qualitative decision factors. An Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is employed as a multi-objective decision making device to integrate the relevant policy components. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003JEL classification: C6, R11, R58, O47,

Modeling latent sources in call center arrival data

In this paper, we discuss issues that arise in the analysis of call center arrivals that are mostly linked to individual ads. More specifically, we consider the case where there is no complete linkage between the calls and the advertisements that led to the calls. The ability to model and infer such latent call arrival sources is important from a marketing as well as an operations point of view since knowledge of the linkage improves forecasting performance of the model. We pose this as a missing data problem and develop a data augmentation algorithm for the Bayesian analysis. We implement the proposed algorithm to simulated and actual call center arrival data and discuss its performance.Call center modeling Nonhomogeneous Poisson process Data augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo

Modeling and Analysis of Call Center Arrival Data: A Bayesian Approach

In this paper, we present a modulated Poisson process model to describe and analyze arrival data to a call center. The attractive feature of this model is that it takes into account both covariate and time effects on the call volume intensity, and in so doing, enables us to assess the effectiveness of different advertising strategies along with predicting the arrival patterns. A Bayesian analysis of the model is developed and an extension of the model is presented to describe potential heterogeneity in arrival patterns. The proposed model and the methodology are implemented using real call center arrival data.call center, advertising strategy, modulated Poisson process, Bayesian analysis, heterogeneity

Financial liberalization and banking efficiency: evidence from Turkey

This paper examines the banking efficiency in a pre- and post-liberalization environment by drawing on the Turkish experience by using DEA. The paper also investigates the scale effect on efficiency. Our findings suggest that liberalization programs were followed by an observable decline in efficiency. Another finding of the study is that the Turkish banking system had a serious scale problem during the study period. The second part of our analysis relied on econometric methods and found that one major reason for such system-wide efficiency decline has been the growing macroeconomic instability of the Turkish economy in general and financial sector in particular. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007Banking, Efficiency, Liberalization, Data envelopment analysis, C14, C61, G21, G28,