Temperature and precipitation in Northeast China during the last 150 years: relationship to large-scale climatic variability

The analysis of two historical time series of temperature and precipitation in Northeast China, spanning, respectively, 1870–2004 and 1841–2004, performed by continuous wavelet transform and other classical and advanced spectral methods, is presented here. Both variables show a particular trend and oscillations of about 85, 60, 35 and 20 years that are highly significant, with a phase opposition at the centennial scale and at the 20-year scale. The analysis of the four temperature series relative to single seasons shows that the 20-year cycle is typical of the summer monsoon season, while the 35-year cycle is most evident in winter. The cycles of ~ 60 years and longer are present in all seasons. The centennial variation of temperature and precipitation describes well the 1970–1980 transition between a period of relatively strong East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), corresponding to high precipitation and relatively cool temperatures in Northeast China, and a conditions of weak EASM (low precipitation and warm temperatures). The connection of the detected local variations with large-scale climatic variability is deduced from the comparison with different climatic records (Northern Hemisphere temperature, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation indexes)

Robust decadal hydroclimate predictions for northern Italy based on a twofold statistical approach

The Mediterranean area belongs to the regions most exposed to hydroclimatic changes, with a likely increase in frequency and duration of droughts in the last decades. However, many climate records like, e.g., North Italian precipitation and river discharge records, indicate that significant decadal variability is often superposed or even dominates long-term hydrological trends. The capability to accurately predict such decadal changes is, therefore, of utmost environmental and social importance. Here, we present a twofold decadal forecast of Po River (Northern Italy) discharge obtained with a statistical approach consisting of the separate application and cross-validation of autoregressive models and neural networks. Both methods are applied to each significant variability component extracted from the raw discharge time series using Singular Spectrum Analysis, and the final forecast is obtained by merging the predictions of the individual components. The obtained 25-year forecasts robustly indicate a prominent dry period in the late 2020s/early 2030s. Our prediction provides information of great value for hydrological management, and a target for current and future near-term numerical hydrological predictions

Long-term evolution of the heliospheric magnetic field inferred from cosmogenic 44^{44}Ti activity in meteorites

Typical reconstructions of historic heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) $B_{\rm HMF}$ are based on the analysis of the sunspot activity, geomagnetic data or on measurement of cosmogenic isotopes stored in terrestrial reservoirs like trees ($^{14}$C) and ice cores ($^{10}$Be). The various reconstructions of $B_{\rm HMF}$ are however discordant both in strength and trend. Cosmogenic isotopes, which are produced by galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) impacting on meteoroids and whose production rate is modulated by the varying HMF convected outward by the solar wind, may offer an alternative tool for the investigation of the HMF in the past centuries. In this work, we aim to evaluate the long-term evolution of $B_{\rm HMF}$ over a period covering the past twenty-two solar cycles by using measurements of the cosmogenic $^{44}$Ti activity ($\tau_{1/2} = 59.2 \pm 0.6$ yr) measured in 20 meteorites which fell between 1766 and 2001. Within the given uncertainties, our result is compatible with a HMF increase from $4.87^{+0.24}_{-0.30}$ nT in 1766 to $6.83^{+0.13}_{-0.11}$ nT in 2001, thus implying an overall average increment of $1.96^{+0.43}_{-0.35}$ nT over 235 years since 1766 reflecting the modern Grand maximum. The $B_{\rm HMF}$ trend thus obtained is then compared with the most recent reconstructions of the near-Earth heliospheric magnetic field strength based on geomagnetic, sunspot number and cosmogenic isotope data.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Robust decadal hydroclimate predictions for northern Italy based on a twofold statistical approach

The Mediterranean area belongs to the regions most exposed to hydroclimatic changes, with a likely increase in frequency and duration of droughts in the last decades. However, many climate records like, e.g., North Italian precipitation and river discharge records, indicate that significant decadal variability is often superposed or even dominates long-term hydrological trends. The capability to accurately predict such decadal changes is, therefore, of utmost environmental and social importance. Here, we present a twofold decadal forecast of Po River (Northern Italy) discharge obtained with a statistical approach consisting of the separate application and cross-validation of autoregressive models and neural networks. Both methods are applied to each significant variability component extracted from the raw discharge time series using Singular Spectrum Analysis, and the final forecast is obtained by merging the predictions of the individual components. The obtained 25-year forecasts robustly indicate a prominent dry period in the late 2020s/early 2030s. Our prediction provides information of great value for hydrological management, and a target for current and future near-term numerical hydrological predictions

On the solar origin of the 200 y Suess wiggles: Evidence from thermoluminescence in sea sediments

In order to understand the origin of the Suess wiggles, present in the tree ring 14C record, we have studied the thermoluminescence (TL) of a shallow-water Ionian sea core, in an attempt to provide a record of an indicator responding to the solar output more promptly than 14C in tree rings. The spectral content of the TL and radiocarbon records is very similar; neverthless, in addition to the 207 y Suess wave (A43.6% ), the TL record shows the second harmonic (103.5 y; A42.4% ), in phase with the envelope of the 11 y solar cycles. This result, obtained by different spectral methods, in particular by Superposition of Epochs (SE) and by Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), strongly supports the solar origin of the 200 y Suess wiggles

Anomalous radiocarbon ages found in Campanian Ignimbrite deposit of the Mediterranean deep-sea core CT85-5

A detailed radiocarbon chronology has been established for the deep-sea core CT85-5 from the Tyrrhenian Sea. This chronology, which is based on the analysis of foraminifera shells, shows a set of reversed 14C ages for sediments deposited during the eruption of the Campanian Ignimbrite (~40 ka cal BP). The anomalous young 14C ages coincide with elevated concentrations of 10Be measured in the same core. Although reversals in 14C ages have been previously found in other records at 40 ka cal BP, such extreme changes have not been observed elsewhere. The enhancement in 14C concentration in CT85-5 sediments associated with the Campanian Ignimbrite is equivalent to an apparent age ~15 ka younger than the age for the sediments deposited shortly before the eruption. Here, we present consistent results of repeated measurements showing no analytical problems that can explain the observed rapid changes in 14C of this particular record.The Radiocarbon archives are made available by Radiocarbon and the University of Arizona Libraries. Contact [email protected] for further information.Migrated from OJS platform February 202

Initiation of a Stable Convective Hydroclimatic Regime in Central America Circa 9000 Years BP

Many Holocene hydroclimate records show rainfall changes that vary with local orbital insolation. However, some tropical regions display rainfall evolution that differs from gradual precessional pacing, suggesting that direct rainfall forcing effects were predominantly driven by sea-surface temperature thresholds or inter-ocean temperature gradients. Here we present a 12,000 yr continuous U/Th-dated precipitation record from a Guatemalan speleothem showing that Central American rainfall increased within a 2000 yr period from a persistently dry state to an active convective regime at 9000 yr BP and has remained strong thereafter. Our data suggest that the Holocene evolution of Central American rainfall was driven by exceeding a temperature threshold in the nearby tropical oceans. The sensitivity of this region to slow changes in radiative forcing is thus strongly mediated by internal dynamics acting on much faster time scales