A computable general equilibrium analysis of the proposed build plans as presented in the integrated resource plan

Includes bibliographical references (p. 81-84).Global concerns with regard to electricity supply ranged from growing demand (especially in developing countries), energy security, diversity of supply, safety and the global movement towards low-carbon technologies. The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) is an operational process by which these concerns as well as other policy goals are addressed. This is done with the aim of providing a long-term plan for the electricity sector. The current modelling approach used in the IRP is unable to quantify the effects on various policy goals that the plan is likely to have. This thesis uses a CGE model to analyse the plan in terms of some of these policy goals in an attempt to fill this analytical gap. The base case, revised balanced and policy-adjusted scenarios are simulated in the E-SAGE model developed by Arndt et al. (2008)

Energy system and economy-wide implications of a rapid transition to decarbonized energy in South Africa

Developed as well as developing countries will have to increase their ambition relative to their stated Nationally Determined Contributions to limit global temperature increases to 2êC above pre-industrial levels. South Africa's Nationally Determined Contribution, in line with national policy, is to follow a peak, plateau, and decline emissions trajectory to 2050, with the contribution post-2030 contingent on a fair contribution from other countries. Given the high levels of unemployment, poverty, and inequality in South Africa, there are concerns that a rapid transition to a low-carbon energy system would have severe socioeconomic consequences. This paper builds on initial work from the Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project, and analyses the impacts on the energy system and the economy of an increase in ambition, in order to shed light on these concerns. The key policy recommendation from this analysis is that further investments in fossil fuel infrastructure in South Africa will have significant negative socioeconomic implications, and that further work should be done to reassess development pathways that could mitigate these negative impacts

The implications of low-carbon trajectories in South Africa

This brief outlines a number of findings and policy recommendations for the introduction of a carbon tax and the transition to a low-carbon economy in South Africa. The National Treasury proposed the partial implementation of a carbon tax in 2015, along with a number of tax exemptions for energy-intensive sectors. Tara Caetano and James Thurlow used a Computable General Equilibrium model to simulate the proposed carbon tax in order to gain some insight into two important research questions: First to see what the potential impact of the proposed carbon tax would be and, more interestingly, how much the exemptions decrease the effectiveness of the tax; second, to look at the social implication of introducing a carbon tax and how the use of different recycling mechanisms affects these implication

Trends and uptake of new formulations of controlled-release oxycodone in Canada

Purpose: This study investigated the impact of changing availability of tamper‐deterrent and non‐tamper‐deterrent oxycodone on prescribing patterns of controlled‐release oxycodone across Canada. Methods: We conducted a population‐based, serial cross‐sectional study of controlled‐release oxycodone dispensing from community pharmacies across Canada between October 2007 and April 2016. We calculated rates of dispensing (tablets per 100 population) and reported the relative market share of generic non‐tamper‐deterrent controlled‐release oxycodone. All analyses were reported nationally and stratified by province. Results: After the introduction of a tamper‐deterrent formulation, the national rate of controlled‐release oxycodone dispensing fell by 44.6% (from 26.4 to 14.6 tablets per 100 population from February 2012 to April 2016). Between December 2012 and July 2013, there was moderate uptake of generic non‐tamper‐deterrent controlled‐release oxycodone (968 452 tablets; 16.0% in July 2013), which appeared to have little impact on the overall rate of controlled‐release oxycodone dispensing in Canada. However, the uptake of generic non‐tamper‐deterrent oxycodone varied considerably by province. By April 2016, 55.0% of all controlled‐release oxycodone tablets dispensed in Quebec were for the generic formulation. […

Road transport vehicles in South Africa towards 2050: Factors influencing technology choice and implications for fuel supply

The South African transport sector is estimated to emit 60 MtCO2eq and require 800 PJ of energy, similar in scale to industrial energy demand and emissions. The sector is forecast to potentially eclipse industry in this regard if conventional vehicle choices and travel modes persist. This paper explores scenarios of transport technology choices and demand in a future of uncertain fuel and technology costs, and the consequences for energy supply and greenhouse gas emissions. It explores the extent of electric vehicle (EV) adoption and the implication of fuel migration from petroleum products. The preference for alternative fuels such as hydrogen, liquid biofuels and natural gas is also investigated. The evolution of road transport in South Africa towards 2050 is investigated utilising the South African TIMES model, a full energy sector least-cost optimisation model that relies on a rich technological database of the entire energy supply and demand system. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are shown to be a viable option in freight and public transport, potentially meeting 70% of travel demand by 2045. The private passenger and light commercial sectors emerge as the main market for electric vehicles, potentially accounting for 80% of new vehicle sales by 2045. Electricity as a transport fuel could account for 30% of fuel supply and reduce transport emissions to half of present day estimates. However, the key uncertainty driving EV adoption is future vehicle costs and crude oil prices, which could dampen EV uptake. Another main finding is that petroleum-dependent vehicles remain an important vehicle class, and that re-investment in existing crude oil refineries to conform to Euro5 standards is a likely requirement. There seems to be little indication, however, that additional refining capacity would be economically viable within the planning horizon. Document type: Articl

Road transport vehicles in South Africa towards 2050: Factors influencing technology choice and implications for fuel supply

The South African transport sector is estimated to emit 60 MtCO2eq and require 800 PJ of energy, similar in scale to industrial energy demand and emissions. The sector is forecast to potentially eclipse industry in this regard if conventional vehicle choices and travel modes persist. This paper explores scenarios of transport technology choices and demand in a future of uncertain fuel and technology costs, and the consequences for energy supply and greenhouse gas emissions. It explores the extent of electric vehicle (EV) adoption and the implication of fuel migration from petroleum products. The preference for alternative fuels such as hydrogen, liquid biofuels and natural gas is also investigated. The evolution of road transport in South Africa towards 2050 is investigated utilising the South African TIMES model, a full energy sector least-cost optimisation model that relies on a rich technological database of the entire energy supply and demand system. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are shown to be a viable option in freight and public transport, potentially meeting 70% of travel demand by 2045. The private passenger and light commercial sectors emerge as the main market for electric vehicles, potentially accounting for 80% of new vehicle sales by 2045. Electricity as a transport fuel could account for 30% of fuel supply and reduce transport emissions to half of present day estimates. However, the key uncertainty driving EV adoption is future vehicle costs and crude oil prices, which could dampen EV uptake. Another main finding is that petroleum-dependent vehicles remain an important vehicle class, and that re-investment in existing crude oil refineries to conform to Euro5 standards is a likely requirement. There seems to be little indication, however, that additional refining capacity would be economically viable within the planning horizon

Decarbonisation and the transport sector: A socio-economic analysis of transport sector futures in South Africa

Globally, governments are investigating transport solutions that not only reduce their national emissions but also decrease their reliance on energy imports and increase clean air in cities and towns. A transition in the transport sector is seemingly inevitable considering these priorities. This study outlines some key socio-economic implications of a transition in South Africa’s transport system, building on work previously done. The focus was on a rapid decarbonisation of the South African economy and the potential impacts of implementing efficiency improvements in the transport sector, including mode-switching. The overall finding was that a more ambitious decarbonisation target would have marginal impact on the economy relative to South Africa’s nationally-determined contribution. It was further found that the implementation of efficiency improvements and changes in behaviour (decreased mileage, increased occupancy, increased rail use and increased use of public transport) could significantly reduce the burden on the economy of a higher GHG emission reduction target

The psychological science accelerator’s COVID-19 rapid-response dataset

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Psychological Science Accelerator coordinated three large-scale psychological studies to examine the effects of loss-gain framing, cognitive reappraisals, and autonomy framing manipulations on behavioral intentions and affective measures. The data collected (April to October 2020) included specific measures for each experimental study, a general questionnaire examining health prevention behaviors and COVID-19 experience, geographical and cultural context characterization, and demographic information for each participant. Each participant started the study with the same general questions and then was randomized to complete either one longer experiment or two shorter experiments. Data were provided by 73,223 participants with varying completion rates. Participants completed the survey from 111 geopolitical regions in 44 unique languages/dialects. The anonymized dataset described here is provided in both raw and processed formats to facilitate re-use and further analyses. The dataset offers secondary analytic opportunities to explore coping, framing, and self-determination across a diverse, global sample obtained at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which can be merged with other time-sampled or geographic data

A global experiment on motivating social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic

Finding communication strategies that effectively motivate social distancing continues to be a global public health priority during the COVID-19 pandemic. This cross-country, preregistered experiment (n = 25,718 from 89 countries) tested hypotheses concerning generalizable positive and negative outcomes of social distancing messages that promoted personal agency and reflective choices (i.e., an autonomy-supportive message) or were restrictive and shaming (i.e., a controlling message) compared with no message at all. Results partially supported experimental hypotheses in that the controlling message increased controlled motivation (a poorly internalized form of motivation relying on shame, guilt, and fear of social consequences) relative to no message. On the other hand, the autonomy-supportive message lowered feelings of defiance compared with the controlling message, but the controlling message did not differ from receiving no message at all. Unexpectedly, messages did not influence autonomous motivation (a highly internalized form of motivation relying on one’s core values) or behavioral intentions. Results supported hypothesized associations between people’s existing autonomous and controlled motivations and self-reported behavioral intentions to engage in social distancing. Controlled motivation was associated with more defiance and less long-term behavioral intention to engage in social distancing, whereas autonomous motivation was associated with less defiance and more short- and long-term intentions to social distance. Overall, this work highlights the potential harm of using shaming and pressuring language in public health communication, with implications for the current and future global health challenges