Forecasting Instability Indicators in the Horn of Africa Region

The forecasting of state failure and the associated indicators has been a topic of great interest to a number of different agencies. USAID, CENTCOM, the World Bank, the Center for Army Analyses, and others have all examined the subject based on their own specific objectives. Whether the goal is denying terrorists space in which to operate, deciding how to pre-position materials in anticipation of unrest, stabilizing foreign markets and trade, or preventing or mitigating humanitarian disasters, man made or otherwise, this topic has been of interest for over a decade. The Horn of Africa has been one of the least stable regions in the world over the past three decades, and a continual source of humanitarian crises as well as terrorist activity. Some of the initial modeling of instability was done in response to crises in the Horn of Africa, but research is ongoing. Current models forecasting instability suffer from lack of lead time, subjective predictions, and lack of specificity. The models demonstrated in this study provide 4 year forecasts of battle deaths per capita, refugees per capita, genocide, and undernourishment for Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. This thesis used principal component analysis, canonical correlation, ordinary least squares regression, logistic regression, and discriminant analysis to develop models of each instability indicator using 54 variables covering 32 years of observations. The key variables within each model are identified, and the accuracy of each model is compared with current models

Josephson Coupling through a Quantum Dot

We derive, via fourth order perturbation theory, an expression for the Josephson current through a gated interacting quantum dot. We analyze our expression for two different models of the superconductor-dot-superconductor (SDS) system. When the matrix elements connecting dot and leads are featureless constants, we compute the Josephson coupling J_c as a function of the gate voltage and Coulomb interaction. In the diffusive dot limit, we compute the probability distribution P(J_c) of Josephson couplings. In both cases, pi junction behavior (J_c < 0) is possible, and is not simply dependent on the parity of the dot occupancy.Comment: 9 pages; 3 encapsulated PostScript figure

Comment on Viscous Stability of Relativistic Keplerian Accretion Disks

Recently Ghosh (1998) reported a new regime of instability in Keplerian accretion disks which is caused by relativistic effects. This instability appears in the gas pressure dominated region when all relativistic corrections to the disk structure equations are taken into account. We show that he uses the stability criterion in completely wrong way leading to inappropriate conclusions. We perform a standard stability analysis to show that no unstable region can be found when the relativistic disk is gas pressure dominated.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, uses aasms4.sty, submitted for ApJ Letter

Analysis of an Electromagnetic Mitigation Scheme for Reentry Telemetry Through Plasma

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/76726/1/AIAA-37395-105.pd

Effects of Reynolds Number and Flapping Kinematics on Hovering Aerodynamics

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/76695/1/AIAA-2007-129-236.pd

Anti-tumor effect of bisphosphonate (YM529) on non-small cell lung cancer cell lines

BACKGROUND: YM529 is a newly developed nitrogen-containing bisphosphonate (BP) classified as a third-generation BP that shows a 100-fold greater potency against bone resorption than pamidronate, a second-generation BP. This agent is, therefore expected to be extremely useful clinically for the treatment of osteoporosis and hypercalcemia. Recently, YM529 as well as other third-generation BPs have also been shown to exert anti-tumor effects against various types of cancer cells both in vitro or/and in vivo. In this study, we investigate the anti-tumor effect of YM529 on non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: Direct anti-tumor effect of YM529 against 8 NSCLC cell lines (adenocarcinoma: H23, H1299, NCI-H1819, NCI-H2009, H44, A549, adenosquamous cell carcinoma: NCI-H125, squamous cell carcinoma: NCI-H157) were measured by MTS assay and calculated inhibition concentration 50 % (IC(50)) values. YM529 induced apoptosis of NCI-H1819 was examined by DNA fragmentation of 2 % agarose gel electrophoresis and flowcytometric analysis (sub-G(1 )method). We examined where YM529 given effect to apoptosis of NSCLC cells in signaling pathway of the mevalonate pathway by western blotting analysis. RESULTS: We found that there was direct anti-tumor effect of YM529 on 8 NSCLC cell lines in a dose-dependent manner and their IC(50 )values were 2.1 to 7.9 μM and YM529 induced apoptosis and G(1 )arrest cell cycle with dose-dependent manner and YM529 caused down regulation of phospholyration of ERK1/2 in signaling pathways of NSCLC cell line (NCI-H1819). CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrate that YM529 showed direct anti-tumor effect on NSCLC cell lines in vitro, which supports the possibility that third-generation BPs including YM529 can be one of therapeutic options for NSCLC