Using machine learning to guide targeted and locally-tailored empiric antibiotic prescribing in a children's hospital in Cambodia [version 1; referees: 2 approved]

Background: Early and appropriate empiric antibiotic treatment of patients suspected of having sepsis is associated with reduced mortality. The increasing prevalence of antimicrobial resistance reduces the efficacy of empiric therapy guidelines derived from population data. This problem is particularly severe for children in developing country settings. We hypothesized that by applying machine learning approaches to readily collect patient data, it would be possible to obtain individualized predictions for targeted empiric antibiotic choices. Methods and Findings: We analysed blood culture data collected from a 100-bed children's hospital in North-West Cambodia between February 2013 and January 2016. Clinical, demographic and living condition information was captured with 35 independent variables. Using these variables, we used a suite of machine learning algorithms to predict Gram stains and whether bacterial pathogens could be treated with common empiric antibiotic regimens: i) ampicillin and gentamicin; ii) ceftriaxone; iii) none of the above. 243 patients with bloodstream infections were available for analysis. We found that the random forest method had the best predictive performance overall as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The random forest method gave an AUC of 0.80 (95%CI 0.66-0.94) for predicting susceptibility to ceftriaxone, 0.74 (0.59-0.89) for susceptibility to ampicillin and gentamicin, 0.85 (0.70-1.00) for susceptibility to neither, and 0.71 (0.57-0.86) for Gram stain result. Most important variables for predicting susceptibility were time from admission to blood culture, patient age, hospital versus community-acquired infection, and age-adjusted weight score. Conclusions: Applying machine learning algorithms to patient data that are readily available even in resource-limited hospital settings can provide highly informative predictions on antibiotic susceptibilities to guide appropriate empiric antibiotic therapy. When used as a decision support tool, such approaches have the potential to improve targeting of empiric therapy, patient outcomes and reduce the burden of antimicrobial resistance

Apramycin susceptibility of multidrug-resistant Gram-negative blood culture isolates in five countries in South-East Asia

Bloodstream infections (BSIs) are a leading cause of sepsis, a life-threatening condition that contributes significantly to the mortality of bacterial infections. Aminoglycoside antibiotics such as gentamicin or amikacin are essential medicines in the treatment of BSIs, but their clinical efficacy is increasingly compromised by antimicrobial resistance. The aminoglycoside apramycin has demonstrated preclinical efficacy against aminoglycoside- and multidrug-resistant (MDR) Gram-negative bacilli (GNB) and is currently in clinical development for the treatment of critical systemic infections. Here, we collected a panel of 470 MDR GNB isolates from health care facilities in Cambodia, Laos, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam for a multi-centre assessment of their antimicrobial susceptibility to apramycin in comparison to other aminoglycosides and colistin by broth microdilution assays. Apramycin and amikacin MICs ≤ 16 µg/mL were found for 462 (98.3%) and 408 (86.8%) GNB isolates, respectively. Susceptibility to gentamicin and tobramycin (MIC ≤ 4 µg/mL) was significantly lower at 122 (26.0%) and 101 (21.5%) susceptible isolates, respectively. Of note, all carbapenem- and third-generation cephalosporin (3GC) resistant Enterobacterales, all Acinetobacter baumannii, and all Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates tested in this study appeared to be susceptible to apramycin. Of the 65 colistin-resistant isolates tested, only four (6.2%) had an apramycin MIC > 16 µg/mL. Apramycin demonstrated best-in-class activity against a panel of GNB isolates with resistances to other aminoglycosides, carbapenems, 3GC, and colistin, warranting continued consideration of apramycin as a drug candidate for the treatment of multidrug-resistant BSIs. Keywords: Bloodstream infection; Gram negative; aminoglycoside; antimicrobial resistance; apramycin; blood culture isolates

Prevalence of MDR organism (MDRO) carriage in children and their household members in Siem Reap Province, Cambodia

Background The rising incidence of infections caused by MDR organisms (MDROs) poses a significant public health threat. However, little has been reported regarding community MDRO carriage in low- and middle-income countries. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study in Siem Reap, Cambodia comparing hospital-associated households, in which an index child (age: 2–14 years) had been hospitalized for at least 48 h in the preceding 2–4 weeks, with matched community households on the same street, in which no other child had a recent history of hospitalization. Participants were interviewed using a survey questionnaire and tested for carriage of MRSA, ESBL-producing Enterobacterales (ESBL-E) and carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) by culture followed by antibiotic susceptibility testing. We used logistic regression analysis to analyse associations between collected variables and MDRO carriage. Results Forty-two pairs of households including 376 participants with 376 nasal swabs and 290 stool specimens were included in final analysis. MRSA was isolated from 26 specimens (6.9%). ESBL-producing Escherichia coli was detected in 269 specimens (92.8%) whereas ESBL-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae was isolated from 128 specimens (44.1%), of which 123 (42.4%) were co-colonized with ESBL-producing E. coli. Six (2.1%) specimens tested positive for CPE (4 E. coli and 2 K. pneumoniae). The prevalence ratios for MRSA, ESBL-producing E. coli and ESBL-producing K. pneumoniae carriage did not differ significantly in hospital-associated households and hospitalized children compared with their counterparts. Conclusions The high prevalence of ESBL-E across both household types suggests that MDRO reservoirs are common in the community. Ongoing genomic analyses will help to understand the epidemiology and course of MDRO spread

Transmission Dynamics of Hyper-Endemic Multi-Drug Resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae in a Southeast Asian Neonatal Unit: A Longitudinal Study With Whole Genome Sequencing

<p>Background:Klebsiella pneumoniae is an important and increasing cause of life-threatening disease in hospitalized neonates. Third generation cephalosporin resistance (3GC-R) is frequently a marker of multi-drug resistance, and can complicate management of infections. 3GC-R K. pneumoniae is hyper-endemic in many developing country settings, but its epidemiology is poorly understood and prospective studies of endemic transmission are lacking. We aimed to determine the transmission dynamics of 3GC-R K. pneumoniae in a newly opened neonatal unit (NU) in Cambodia and to address the following questions: what is the diversity of 3GC-R K. pneumoniae both within- and between-host; to what extent is high carriage prevalence driven by ward-based transmission; and to what extent can environmental contamination explain patterns of patient acquisition.</p><p>Methods: We performed a prospective longitudinal study between September and November 2013. Rectal swabs from consented patients were collected upon NU admission and every 3 days thereafter. Morphologically different colonies from swabs growing cefpodoxime-resistant K. pneumoniae were selected for whole-genome sequencing (WGS).</p><p>Results: One hundred and fifty-eight samples from 37 patients and 7 environmental sites were collected. 32/37 (86%) patients screened positive for 3GC-R K. pneumoniae and 93 colonies from 119 swabs were successfully sequenced. Isolates were resistant to a median of six (range 3–9) antimicrobials. WGS revealed high diversity; pairwise distances between isolates from the same patient were either 0–1 SNV or >1,000 SNVs; 19/32 colonized patients harbored K. pneumoniae colonies differing by >1000 SNVs. Diverse lineages accounted for 18 probable importations to the NU and nine probable transmission clusters involving 19/37 (51%) of screened patients. Median cluster size was five patients (range 3–9). Seven out of 46 environmental swabs (15%) were positive for 3GC-R K. pneumoniae. Environmental sources were plausible sources for acquisitions in 2/9 transmission clusters, though in both cases other patients were also plausible sources.</p><p>Conclusion: The epidemiology of 3GC-R K. pneumoniae was characterized by multiple introductions, high within- and between host diversity and a dense network of cross-infection, with half of screened neonates part of a transmission cluster. We found no evidence to suggest that environmental contamination was playing a dominant role in transmission.</p

Manuscript dataset - Using machine learning to guide targeted and locally-tailored empiric antibiotic prescribing in a children's hospital in Cambodia

<p>This is a dataset associated with submission of the manuscript "Using machine learning to guide targeted and locally-tailored empiric antibiotic prescribing in a children's hospital in Cambodia"</p

Table_2_Transmission Dynamics of Hyper-Endemic Multi-Drug Resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae in a Southeast Asian Neonatal Unit: A Longitudinal Study With Whole Genome Sequencing.DOCX

<p>Background:Klebsiella pneumoniae is an important and increasing cause of life-threatening disease in hospitalized neonates. Third generation cephalosporin resistance (3GC-R) is frequently a marker of multi-drug resistance, and can complicate management of infections. 3GC-R K. pneumoniae is hyper-endemic in many developing country settings, but its epidemiology is poorly understood and prospective studies of endemic transmission are lacking. We aimed to determine the transmission dynamics of 3GC-R K. pneumoniae in a newly opened neonatal unit (NU) in Cambodia and to address the following questions: what is the diversity of 3GC-R K. pneumoniae both within- and between-host; to what extent is high carriage prevalence driven by ward-based transmission; and to what extent can environmental contamination explain patterns of patient acquisition.</p><p>Methods: We performed a prospective longitudinal study between September and November 2013. Rectal swabs from consented patients were collected upon NU admission and every 3 days thereafter. Morphologically different colonies from swabs growing cefpodoxime-resistant K. pneumoniae were selected for whole-genome sequencing (WGS).</p><p>Results: One hundred and fifty-eight samples from 37 patients and 7 environmental sites were collected. 32/37 (86%) patients screened positive for 3GC-R K. pneumoniae and 93 colonies from 119 swabs were successfully sequenced. Isolates were resistant to a median of six (range 3–9) antimicrobials. WGS revealed high diversity; pairwise distances between isolates from the same patient were either 0–1 SNV or >1,000 SNVs; 19/32 colonized patients harbored K. pneumoniae colonies differing by >1000 SNVs. Diverse lineages accounted for 18 probable importations to the NU and nine probable transmission clusters involving 19/37 (51%) of screened patients. Median cluster size was five patients (range 3–9). Seven out of 46 environmental swabs (15%) were positive for 3GC-R K. pneumoniae. Environmental sources were plausible sources for acquisitions in 2/9 transmission clusters, though in both cases other patients were also plausible sources.</p><p>Conclusion: The epidemiology of 3GC-R K. pneumoniae was characterized by multiple introductions, high within- and between host diversity and a dense network of cross-infection, with half of screened neonates part of a transmission cluster. We found no evidence to suggest that environmental contamination was playing a dominant role in transmission.</p

Image_3_Transmission Dynamics of Hyper-Endemic Multi-Drug Resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae in a Southeast Asian Neonatal Unit: A Longitudinal Study With Whole Genome Sequencing.PDF

<p>Background:Klebsiella pneumoniae is an important and increasing cause of life-threatening disease in hospitalized neonates. Third generation cephalosporin resistance (3GC-R) is frequently a marker of multi-drug resistance, and can complicate management of infections. 3GC-R K. pneumoniae is hyper-endemic in many developing country settings, but its epidemiology is poorly understood and prospective studies of endemic transmission are lacking. We aimed to determine the transmission dynamics of 3GC-R K. pneumoniae in a newly opened neonatal unit (NU) in Cambodia and to address the following questions: what is the diversity of 3GC-R K. pneumoniae both within- and between-host; to what extent is high carriage prevalence driven by ward-based transmission; and to what extent can environmental contamination explain patterns of patient acquisition.</p><p>Methods: We performed a prospective longitudinal study between September and November 2013. Rectal swabs from consented patients were collected upon NU admission and every 3 days thereafter. Morphologically different colonies from swabs growing cefpodoxime-resistant K. pneumoniae were selected for whole-genome sequencing (WGS).</p><p>Results: One hundred and fifty-eight samples from 37 patients and 7 environmental sites were collected. 32/37 (86%) patients screened positive for 3GC-R K. pneumoniae and 93 colonies from 119 swabs were successfully sequenced. Isolates were resistant to a median of six (range 3–9) antimicrobials. WGS revealed high diversity; pairwise distances between isolates from the same patient were either 0–1 SNV or >1,000 SNVs; 19/32 colonized patients harbored K. pneumoniae colonies differing by >1000 SNVs. Diverse lineages accounted for 18 probable importations to the NU and nine probable transmission clusters involving 19/37 (51%) of screened patients. Median cluster size was five patients (range 3–9). Seven out of 46 environmental swabs (15%) were positive for 3GC-R K. pneumoniae. Environmental sources were plausible sources for acquisitions in 2/9 transmission clusters, though in both cases other patients were also plausible sources.</p><p>Conclusion: The epidemiology of 3GC-R K. pneumoniae was characterized by multiple introductions, high within- and between host diversity and a dense network of cross-infection, with half of screened neonates part of a transmission cluster. We found no evidence to suggest that environmental contamination was playing a dominant role in transmission.</p

Image_2_Transmission Dynamics of Hyper-Endemic Multi-Drug Resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae in a Southeast Asian Neonatal Unit: A Longitudinal Study With Whole Genome Sequencing.PDF

<p>Background:Klebsiella pneumoniae is an important and increasing cause of life-threatening disease in hospitalized neonates. Third generation cephalosporin resistance (3GC-R) is frequently a marker of multi-drug resistance, and can complicate management of infections. 3GC-R K. pneumoniae is hyper-endemic in many developing country settings, but its epidemiology is poorly understood and prospective studies of endemic transmission are lacking. We aimed to determine the transmission dynamics of 3GC-R K. pneumoniae in a newly opened neonatal unit (NU) in Cambodia and to address the following questions: what is the diversity of 3GC-R K. pneumoniae both within- and between-host; to what extent is high carriage prevalence driven by ward-based transmission; and to what extent can environmental contamination explain patterns of patient acquisition.</p><p>Methods: We performed a prospective longitudinal study between September and November 2013. Rectal swabs from consented patients were collected upon NU admission and every 3 days thereafter. Morphologically different colonies from swabs growing cefpodoxime-resistant K. pneumoniae were selected for whole-genome sequencing (WGS).</p><p>Results: One hundred and fifty-eight samples from 37 patients and 7 environmental sites were collected. 32/37 (86%) patients screened positive for 3GC-R K. pneumoniae and 93 colonies from 119 swabs were successfully sequenced. Isolates were resistant to a median of six (range 3–9) antimicrobials. WGS revealed high diversity; pairwise distances between isolates from the same patient were either 0–1 SNV or >1,000 SNVs; 19/32 colonized patients harbored K. pneumoniae colonies differing by >1000 SNVs. Diverse lineages accounted for 18 probable importations to the NU and nine probable transmission clusters involving 19/37 (51%) of screened patients. Median cluster size was five patients (range 3–9). Seven out of 46 environmental swabs (15%) were positive for 3GC-R K. pneumoniae. Environmental sources were plausible sources for acquisitions in 2/9 transmission clusters, though in both cases other patients were also plausible sources.</p><p>Conclusion: The epidemiology of 3GC-R K. pneumoniae was characterized by multiple introductions, high within- and between host diversity and a dense network of cross-infection, with half of screened neonates part of a transmission cluster. We found no evidence to suggest that environmental contamination was playing a dominant role in transmission.</p

Table_4_Transmission Dynamics of Hyper-Endemic Multi-Drug Resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae in a Southeast Asian Neonatal Unit: A Longitudinal Study With Whole Genome Sequencing.DOCX

<p>Background:Klebsiella pneumoniae is an important and increasing cause of life-threatening disease in hospitalized neonates. Third generation cephalosporin resistance (3GC-R) is frequently a marker of multi-drug resistance, and can complicate management of infections. 3GC-R K. pneumoniae is hyper-endemic in many developing country settings, but its epidemiology is poorly understood and prospective studies of endemic transmission are lacking. We aimed to determine the transmission dynamics of 3GC-R K. pneumoniae in a newly opened neonatal unit (NU) in Cambodia and to address the following questions: what is the diversity of 3GC-R K. pneumoniae both within- and between-host; to what extent is high carriage prevalence driven by ward-based transmission; and to what extent can environmental contamination explain patterns of patient acquisition.</p><p>Methods: We performed a prospective longitudinal study between September and November 2013. Rectal swabs from consented patients were collected upon NU admission and every 3 days thereafter. Morphologically different colonies from swabs growing cefpodoxime-resistant K. pneumoniae were selected for whole-genome sequencing (WGS).</p><p>Results: One hundred and fifty-eight samples from 37 patients and 7 environmental sites were collected. 32/37 (86%) patients screened positive for 3GC-R K. pneumoniae and 93 colonies from 119 swabs were successfully sequenced. Isolates were resistant to a median of six (range 3–9) antimicrobials. WGS revealed high diversity; pairwise distances between isolates from the same patient were either 0–1 SNV or >1,000 SNVs; 19/32 colonized patients harbored K. pneumoniae colonies differing by >1000 SNVs. Diverse lineages accounted for 18 probable importations to the NU and nine probable transmission clusters involving 19/37 (51%) of screened patients. Median cluster size was five patients (range 3–9). Seven out of 46 environmental swabs (15%) were positive for 3GC-R K. pneumoniae. Environmental sources were plausible sources for acquisitions in 2/9 transmission clusters, though in both cases other patients were also plausible sources.</p><p>Conclusion: The epidemiology of 3GC-R K. pneumoniae was characterized by multiple introductions, high within- and between host diversity and a dense network of cross-infection, with half of screened neonates part of a transmission cluster. We found no evidence to suggest that environmental contamination was playing a dominant role in transmission.</p

Image_4_Transmission Dynamics of Hyper-Endemic Multi-Drug Resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae in a Southeast Asian Neonatal Unit: A Longitudinal Study With Whole Genome Sequencing.PDF

<p>Background:Klebsiella pneumoniae is an important and increasing cause of life-threatening disease in hospitalized neonates. Third generation cephalosporin resistance (3GC-R) is frequently a marker of multi-drug resistance, and can complicate management of infections. 3GC-R K. pneumoniae is hyper-endemic in many developing country settings, but its epidemiology is poorly understood and prospective studies of endemic transmission are lacking. We aimed to determine the transmission dynamics of 3GC-R K. pneumoniae in a newly opened neonatal unit (NU) in Cambodia and to address the following questions: what is the diversity of 3GC-R K. pneumoniae both within- and between-host; to what extent is high carriage prevalence driven by ward-based transmission; and to what extent can environmental contamination explain patterns of patient acquisition.</p><p>Methods: We performed a prospective longitudinal study between September and November 2013. Rectal swabs from consented patients were collected upon NU admission and every 3 days thereafter. Morphologically different colonies from swabs growing cefpodoxime-resistant K. pneumoniae were selected for whole-genome sequencing (WGS).</p><p>Results: One hundred and fifty-eight samples from 37 patients and 7 environmental sites were collected. 32/37 (86%) patients screened positive for 3GC-R K. pneumoniae and 93 colonies from 119 swabs were successfully sequenced. Isolates were resistant to a median of six (range 3–9) antimicrobials. WGS revealed high diversity; pairwise distances between isolates from the same patient were either 0–1 SNV or >1,000 SNVs; 19/32 colonized patients harbored K. pneumoniae colonies differing by >1000 SNVs. Diverse lineages accounted for 18 probable importations to the NU and nine probable transmission clusters involving 19/37 (51%) of screened patients. Median cluster size was five patients (range 3–9). Seven out of 46 environmental swabs (15%) were positive for 3GC-R K. pneumoniae. Environmental sources were plausible sources for acquisitions in 2/9 transmission clusters, though in both cases other patients were also plausible sources.</p><p>Conclusion: The epidemiology of 3GC-R K. pneumoniae was characterized by multiple introductions, high within- and between host diversity and a dense network of cross-infection, with half of screened neonates part of a transmission cluster. We found no evidence to suggest that environmental contamination was playing a dominant role in transmission.</p