Co-integration and error-correction modelling of agricultural export supply in Cameroon

Estimates of factors influencing Cameroon's exports of cocoa, coffee and cotton are derived in a system of equations using the Engle-Granger and Johansen co-integration and error-correction representation procedures. Two co-integrating vectors involving cocoa and coffee exports as endogenous variables are identified in the system while tests for exogeneity of cotton exports are consistent with the independence of cotton from the other two commodities. These findings are corroborated by estimates of a restricted error-correction model which lead to acceptance of the hypothesis that cocoa and coffee exports are indeed determined endogenously to the system and not linked to cotton exports. Statistical significance of the error-correction terms for cocoa and coffee validates the existence of an equilibrium relationship among the variables in each of these co-integrating vectors. The combined short-run dynamic effect of lagged quantities of cocoa and coffee, export/domestic price ratio and GDP jointly explain changes in exports of cocoa whereas lagged quantities exported do not seem to have a significant short-run dynamic effect on changes in coffee exports

Testing for cointegration in import demand for consumer and non-consumer commodities in the republic of Cameroon

Empirical estimates of the determinants of import demand for consumer and non-consumer commodities in the Republic of Cameroon are derived using cointegration and error-correction modelling. Disaggregation of total merchandise imports into three classes of consumer goods and seven classes of non-consumer goods reveals that imports of consumer goods are more sensitive to import price and income changes than is the case with non-consumer goods. Rising import prices have a depressing effect on trade in consumer goods and appear to encourage demand for domestic substitutes of these goods. Over time, income elasticities of import demand become larger than short-run elasticities, suggesting a greater degree of "openness" of the Cameroon economy

Analysis of household attitudes toward the purchase of livestock products and fish in Cameroon

The need for additional information on household demand for meat and fish in Cameroon is addressed. Probit analysis involving the Heckman selectivity correction procedure is used to estimate the effects of individual and household characteristics on demand for beef, chicken, pork and fish. Results indicate that fish is a relative necessity in Cameroon and is often substituted for beef and chicken by households whose profiles include being of low income levels, having large household sizes, are of middle age and are less educated. Whereas chicken and pork substitute each other, they are each complementary to beef. The profiles of households likely to purchase beef include being married, middle age, educated and of the Muslim faith. Profiles for households most likely to increase their purchases of chicken include being of high income levels and are public sector employed. Some policy implications are provided

An analysis of the impact of public animal health expenditures on the performance of the livestock sub-sector in Kenya

Animal diseases cause significant economic losses to the livestock sub-sector in sub Saharan Africa (SSA). To minimize these losses, SSA governments have allocated over 70% of total livestock services budgets to disease control and other animal health services. Declining state budgets, however, have led to significant fluctuations in public animal health expenditures (PAHE). In Kenya, for example, annual PAHE varied from US$18.3 million in 1988 to US$ 8.0 million in 1989, recovering to US$15.2 million by 1991. In 1995, PAHE had dropped again to US$ 7.0 million. If public investment in disease control does indeed enhance livestock production, such fluctuations raise major concerns about Kenya's ability to develop its livestock sector. This paper measures the effects of PAHE on livestock production in Kenya. The hypothesis that higher levels of PAHE improve livestock production is empirically tested using annual time series data from 1970-1995. If the hypothesis is home out, the results provide a strong argument to policy makers for strengthening financial commitments to publicly funded animal health services

Probit analysis of livestock producers' demand for private veterinary services in the high potential agricultural areas of Kenya

In this paper, empirical maximum likelihood (ML) and weighted least squares (WLS) estimates of socio-economic factors influencing the demand for private veterinary services in the high potential agricultural areas of Kenya are derived using probit analysis. While ML estimates explain 65 and 56 percent of the variation in demand for artificial insemination and clinical services, respectively, WLS estimates explain 74 and 72 percent of the variation after correcting for sample selection bias using the Heckman two-step procedure. Based on the ML and WLS coefficients, herd size, number of breeding cows farm income, education, knowledge of husbandry practices and time devoted to farm activities are identified as important determinants of demand and are used to construct producer demand profiles. Using the predicitive success rate together with information on the profiles, the model correctly classifies the demand for artificial insemination and clinical services to be higher than demand for vaccination and herd health services