ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF THE DEMAND FOR MEAT IN SOUTH AFRICA

In this study the demand relations for meat in South Africa are estimated and interpreted. Two demand model specifications, namely the Rotterdam and Linearized Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS), were estimated and tested in order to determine which model provide the best fit for South African meat data. Tests for separability included an F and Likelihood ratio version. Both tests rejected the null hypothesis of weak separability between meat, eggs and milk as protein sources, indicating that the demand model for meat products should be estimated separately from eggs and milk. Consequently, separability tests between the four meat products fail to reject the null hypothesis, confirming that the four meat products should be modelled together. According to the Hausman exogeneity test, the expenditure term is exogenous. As a result, a Restricted Seemingly Unrelated Regression (RSUR) was used to estimate both models. Annual time series data from 1970 to 2000 were used. Both models were estimated in first differenced format, whereafter the estimated parameters were used to calculate compensated, uncompensated and expenditure elasticities. In a non-nested test, the Saragan's and Vuong's likelihood criterion, selected the LA/AIDS model. In terms of expected sign and statistical significance of the elasticities, the LA/AIDS also proved to be more suitable for South African meat data. Although the magnitudes of most own price and cross-price elasticities were significantly lower than previous estimates of demand relations for meat in South Africa, several reasons, including estimation techniques and time gaps, were offered as explanations for these differences. The uncompensated own price elasticity for beef (-0.7504) is the largest in absolute terms, followed by mutton (-0.4678), pork (-0.36972) and chicken (-0.3502). In terms of the compensated own price elasticities, which contain only the pure price effect, pork (-0.30592) was the most elastic, followed by mutton (-0.27713), chicken (-0.1939) and beef (-0.16111). The expenditure elasticities of beef (1.243) and mutton (1.181) are greater than one, indicating that beef and mutton are luxury goods in South Africa. The expenditure elasticity for beef is the most elastic; indicating that South African consumers as a whole, will increase their beef consumption as the total expenditure on meat products increase.Demand and Price Analysis, Livestock Production/Industries,

Transaction Costs and Cattle Farmers' Choice of Marketing Channels in North-Central Namibia

About 70% of the Namibian population depends on agricultural activities for their livelihood. Moreover, agriculture remains an important sector to Namibia because its national economy is widely dependent on agricultural production. Cattle producers in the Northern Communal Areas (NCAs) have an option to market their cattle via the formal or informal markets. Efforts have been made to encourage producers to market their cattle through the formal market; however, limited improvement has been observed. In this study a number of factors have been analysed to determine its influences on cattle marketing decisions. Factors influencing the marketing decision of whether or not to sell through the formal market are analysed using the Probit model. Factors influencing the proportion of cattle sold through the formal market on condition that a producer uses the formal markets to sell cattle are analysed with the Truncated model. Testing the Tobit model against the alternative of a two-part model is done using Cragg’s model. Empirical results revealed that problems with transport to MeatCo, improved productivity, accessibility to market-related information and access to new information technology, are some factors significantly affecting the decision of whether or not to sell through the formal market. Payment arrangements by MeatCo, animal handling, accessibility to new information technology, age of respondents and lack of access to marketing expertise, are some factors influencing the proportional number of cattle sold through the formal market. The results suggest that substantially more information is obtained by modelling cattle marketing behaviour as a two decision-making instead of a single decision-making framework.Cattle marketing, decision-making, formal markets, transaction costs, Livestock Production/Industries,

A Stochastic Budgeting Analysis of Three Alternative Scenarios to Convert from Beef-Cattle Farming to Game Ranching

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the profitability and financial feasibility of three alternative scenarios to convert from beef-cattle farming to game ranching. The analyses acknowledge the importance of quantifying the probability of failure or success when making investment decisions. Risk is incorporated into a standard net present value analysis using risk simulation. De-trended historical auction prices of live game and on-the-hoof prices of weaner cattle were used to quantify price variability. The stochastic net present value analyses indicate that game ranching is more profitable than cattle farming. Although an investment in a limited number of common game species is financially feasible, the cash flow analysis indicates a decreasing probability of making more money with game when annual cash flows are compared to those generated by means of cattle farming. Both the high-value game species scenarios are financially unfeasible during the first five years. These infeasibilities stem from a high probability of not covering instalments to finance game purchases, the extent to which these instalments are not covered, and the high probability of shortfalls in consecutive years.Game ranching, profitability, financial feasibility, risk simulation, Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries,

A Linearized Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) Estimation of the Demand for Meat in South Africa

A linear approximated Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS), estimated in first differences, were used to estimate the demand relations for meat (beef, chicken, pork and mutton) in South Africa from 1970 2000. Two tests for weak separability, including an F and Likelihood ratio version, failed to reject the null hypothesis of weak seperability, confirming that the four meat products are separable, and should be modelled together. According to the Hausman exogeneity test, the expenditure term in the South African meat demand model is exogenous. As a result, a Restricted Seemingly Unrelated Regression (RSUR) was used to estimate the model, whereafter the estimated parameters were used to estimate compensated, uncompensated and expenditure elasticities.Consumer/Household Economics,

The demand for meat in South Africa: An almost ideal estimation

A Linear Approximated Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS), estimated in first differences, was used to anticipate the demand relations for meat (beef, chicken, pork and mutton) in South Africa from 1970 – 2000. Two tests for weak separability, including an F and Likelihood ratio version, failed to reject the null hypothesis of weak separability, confirming that the four meat products are separable, and should be modelled together. According to the Hausman exogeneity test, the expenditure term in the South African meat demand model is exogenous. As a result, a Restricted Seemingly Unrelated Regression (RSUR) was used to estimate the model, whereafter the parameters were used as to calculate compensated, uncompensated and expenditure elasticities.Demand and Price Analysis,

Choosing between the AIDS and Rotterdam models: A meat demand analysis case study

Due to the inability of economic theory to choose ex ante between the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and the Rotterdam model, a non-nested test was used. The results of the non-nested test points to the Linearized-AIDS model applied to 31 years of meat consumption data in South Africa. When comparing the estimated demand relations of the two models, the LA/AIDS model also proved to be better fit for South African meat demand.Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF THE DEMAND FOR MEAT IN SOUTH AFRICA

In this study the demand relations for meat in South Africa are estimated and interpreted. Two demand model specifications, namely the Rotterdam and Linearized Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS), were estimated and tested in order to determine which model provide the best fit for South African meat data. Tests for separability included an F and Likelihood ratio version. Both tests rejected the null hypothesis of weak separability between meat, eggs and milk as protein sources, indicating that the demand model for meat products should be estimated separately from eggs and milk. Consequently, separability tests between the four meat products fail to reject the null hypothesis, confirming that the four meat products should be modelled together. According to the Hausman exogeneity test, the expenditure term is exogenous. As a result, a Restricted Seemingly Unrelated Regression (RSUR) was used to estimate both models. Annual time series data from 1970 to 2000 were used. Both models were estimated in first differenced format, whereafter the estimated parameters were used to calculate compensated, uncompensated and expenditure elasticities. In a non-nested test, the Saragan's and Vuong's likelihood criterion, selected the LA/AIDS model. In terms of expected sign and statistical significance of the elasticities, the LA/AIDS also proved to be more suitable for South African meat data. Although the magnitudes of most own price and cross-price elasticities were significantly lower than previous estimates of demand relations for meat in South Africa, several reasons, including estimation techniques and time gaps, were offered as explanations for these differences. The uncompensated own price elasticity for beef (-0.7504) is the largest in absolute terms, followed by mutton (-0.4678), pork (-0.36972) and chicken (-0.3502). In terms of the compensated own price elasticities, which contain only the pure price effect, pork (-0.30592) was the most elastic, followed by mutton (-0.27713), chicken (-0.1939) and beef (-0.16111). The expenditure elasticities of beef (1.243) and mutton (1.181) are greater than one, indicating that beef and mutton are luxury goods in South Africa. The expenditure elasticity for beef is the most elastic; indicating that South African consumers as a whole, will increase their beef consumption as the total expenditure on meat products increase

Transaction Costs and Cattle Farmers' Choice of Marketing Channels in North-Central Namibia

About 70% of the Namibian population depends on agricultural activities for their livelihood. Moreover, agriculture remains an important sector to Namibia because its national economy is widely dependent on agricultural production. Cattle producers in the Northern Communal Areas (NCAs) have an option to market their cattle via the formal or informal markets. Efforts have been made to encourage producers to market their cattle through the formal market; however, limited improvement has been observed. In this study a number of factors have been analysed to determine its influences on cattle marketing decisions. Factors influencing the marketing decision of whether or not to sell through the formal market are analysed using the Probit model. Factors influencing the proportion of cattle sold through the formal market on condition that a producer uses the formal markets to sell cattle are analysed with the Truncated model. Testing the Tobit model against the alternative of a two-part model is done using Cragg’s model. Empirical results revealed that problems with transport to MeatCo, improved productivity, accessibility to market-related information and access to new information technology, are some factors significantly affecting the decision of whether or not to sell through the formal market. Payment arrangements by MeatCo, animal handling, accessibility to new information technology, age of respondents and lack of access to marketing expertise, are some factors influencing the proportional number of cattle sold through the formal market. The results suggest that substantially more information is obtained by modelling cattle marketing behaviour as a two decision-making instead of a single decision-making framework

Towards a broader understanding of South African consumer spending on meat

This paper analyses meat consumption trends in South Africa. Despite the fact that aggregate per capita meat consumption remained relatively constant during the last 34 years, significant changes were observed in the per capita consumption among different meat categories. By applying Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and the Johansen co integration approach to a conventional demand function, significant changes in the contributions of economic and non-economic factors towards meat demand were identified over time. From the analysis it is apparent that non-economic factors play a greater role in determining meat consumption in South Africa

A Stochastic Budgeting Analysis of Three Alternative Scenarios to Convert from Beef-Cattle Farming to Game Ranching

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the profitability and financial feasibility of three alternative scenarios to convert from beef-cattle farming to game ranching. The analyses acknowledge the importance of quantifying the probability of failure or success when making investment decisions. Risk is incorporated into a standard net present value analysis using risk simulation. De-trended historical auction prices of live game and on-the-hoof prices of weaner cattle were used to quantify price variability. The stochastic net present value analyses indicate that game ranching is more profitable than cattle farming. Although an investment in a limited number of common game species is financially feasible, the cash flow analysis indicates a decreasing probability of making more money with game when annual cash flows are compared to those generated by means of cattle farming. Both the high-value game species scenarios are financially unfeasible during the first five years. These infeasibilities stem from a high probability of not covering instalments to finance game purchases, the extent to which these instalments are not covered, and the high probability of shortfalls in consecutive years