Machine learning prediction of the mass and the velocity of controlled single-block rockfalls from the seismic waves they generate

Understanding the dynamics of slope instabilities is critical to mitigate the associated hazards but their direct observation is often difficult due to their remote locations and their spontaneous nature. Seismology allows us to get unique information on these events, including on their dynamics. However, the link between the properties of these events (mass and kinematics) and the seismic signals generated are still poorly understood. We conducted a controlled rockfall experiment in the Riou-Bourdoux torrent (south French Alps) to try to better decipher those links. We deployed a dense seismic network and inferred the dynamics of the block from the reconstruction of the 3D trajectory from terrestrial and airborne high-resolution stereo-photogrammetry. We propose a new approach based on machine learning to predict the mass and the velocity of each block. Our results show that we can predict those quantities with average errors of approximately 10% for the velocity and 25% for the mass. These accuracies are as good as or better than those obtained by other approaches, but our approach has the advantage of not requiring to localize the source and an a priori knowledge of the environment, nor of making a strong assumption on the seismic wave attenuation model. Finally, the machine learning approach allows us to explore more widely the correlations between the features of the seismic signal generated by the rockfalls and their physical properties, and might eventually lead to better constrain the physical models in the future

Highly energetic rockfalls: back analysis of the 2015 event from the Mel de la Niva, Switzerland

International audienceProcess-based rockfall simulation models attempt to better emulate rockfall dynamics to different degrees. As no model is perfect, their development is often accompanied and validated by the valuable collection of rockfall databases covering a range of site geometries, rock masses, velocities, and related energies that the models are designed for. Additionally, such rockfall data can serve as a base for assessing the model's sensitivity to different parameters, evaluating their predictability and helping calibrate the model's parameters from back calculation and analyses. As the involved rock volumes/masses increase, the complexity of conducting field-test experiments to build up rockfall databases increases to a point where such experiments become impracticable. To the author's knowledge, none have reconstructed rockfall data in 3D from real events involving block fragments of approximately 500 metric tons. A back analysis of the 2015 Mel de la Niva rockfall event is performed in this paper, contributing to a novel documentation in terms of kinetic energy values, bounce heights, velocities, and 3D lateral deviations of these rare events involving block fragments of approximately 200 m 3. Rockfall simulations are then performed on a "per-impact" basis to illustrate how the reconstructed data from the site can be used to validate results from simulation models