The Impacts of Hurricane Mitch on Child Health: Evidence from Nicaragua

By taking a rare opportunity to have both pre- and post-disaster survey data in Nicaragua in 1998 and 2001, we estimate the direct impacts of Hurricane Mitch on long-term child health status, measured in height-for-age z-scores, in the pooled cross section model. Especially, we focus on children who were younger than 2.5 years old at the time of Hurricane Mitch because the previous studies show that children under two to three years old are especially vulnerable to shocks. The results indicate that, in the 2001 survey, more than two years after experiencing Hurricane Mitch, children who were younger than 2.5 years old at the time of Hurricane Mitch have 0.35 points lower HAZ-scores and have 6.6 percent higher probability of stunting than expected. Although the poor health status of these children could not be attributed entirely to Hurricane Mitch, we suspect that it is one of the main factors. The results suggest the importance of safety nets programs to mitigate negative impacts on child health in their early childhood.Health Economics and Policy, I3, O13, Q51, Q54,

The Possibility of a Green Revolution in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Kenya

It is widely believed that a Green Revolution similar to the one achieved in Asia is impossible in Sub-Saharan Africa. Although grain yields have been stagnant in this region, there are some signs of the intensification of farming systems in the face of growing population pressure on limited land resources. In this paper we focus on the new farming system based on the use of manure produced by dairy cows, which may be termed an “Organic Green Revolution.†Using the farm household data collected from Kenya, this paper demonstrates that the Organic Green Revolution has a potential of doubling maize yields in highlands of Kenya.Green Revolution, Agricultural Revolution, Organic Green Revolution, dairy cows, manure, chemical fertilizer, maize yield, International Development,

Soil fertility, fertilizer, and the maize green revolution in East Africa

This paper investigates the reasons for the low application of external fertilizers on farms in Kenya and Uganda. The analysis uses a large panel of household data with rich soil fertility data at the plot level. The authors control for maize seed selection and household effects by using a fixed-effects semi-parametric endogenous switching model. The results suggest that Kenyan maize farmers have applied inorganic fertilizer at the optimal level, corresponding to the high nitrogen-maize relative price, in one of the two survey years and also responded to the price change over time. In Uganda, even the low application of inorganic fertilizer is not profitable because of its high relative price. The authors conclude that policies that reduce the relative price of fertilizer could be effective in both countries, while the efficacy of policies based on improving farmers'knowledge about fertilizer use will be limited as long as the relative price of fertilizer remains high.Crops&Crop Management Systems,Climate Change and Agriculture,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Fertilizers,Food Security

Measuring the Impacts of Prime-age Adult Death on Rural Households in Kenya

Using a two-year panel of 1,422 Kenyan households surveyed in 1997 and 2000, we measure how primeage adult mortality affects rural households’ size and composition, agricultural production, asset levels, and off-farm income. First, the paper uses adult mortality rates from available data on an HIV-negative sample from neighboring Tanzania to predict the number of deaths that might have been expected in the absence of HIV, and compares this to the number of deaths actually recorded over the survey interval in the Kenyan sample. Based on this procedure, only a quarter of the prime-age female deaths in the 25-34 age range and about half of the male deaths in the 35-44 year age range age range could have been predicted on the basis of the HIV-negative Tanzanian adult mortality rates. In the Nyanza area, the discrepancies were even larger over a broader number of age/sex ranges. This provides a strong indication that AIDS accounts for a large proportion of the recorded deaths for these age/sex categories, particularly in the Nyanza area. Next, using a household fixed-effects model that controls for time-varying effects, we measure changes in outcomes between households afflicted by adult mortality vs. those not afflicted over the three-year survey period. The effects of adult death are highly sensitive to the gender and position of the deceased family member in the household. Households suffering the death of the head -of-household or spouse incurred a greater-than-one person loss in household size. The death of a male household head between 16 and 59 years is associated with a 68% reduction in the net value of the household’s crop production. However, these results are sensitive to age ranges chosen. Female head-of-household or spouse mortality causes a greater decline in cereal area cultivated, while cash crops such as coffee, tea, and sugar are most adversely affected in households incurring the death of a prime-age male head. Off-farm income is also significantly affected by the death of the male head of household, but not in the case of other adult members. The death of other prime-age family members is partially offset by an inflow of other individuals into the family. Other prime-age family members’ mortality has less dramatic effects on the households’ agricultural production, assets, and off-farm income. Lastly, there is little indication that households are able to recover quickly from the effects of prime-age head-of-household adult mortality; the effects on crop and non-farm incomes do not decay at least over the three-year survey interval. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of these findings for agricultural research and extension programs as well as for safety net programs designed to cushion the impacts of prime-age adult death.HIV/AIDS, Kenya, agricultural production, adult death, Health Economics and Policy, Q18,

MEASURING THE IMPACTS OF PRIME-AGE ADULT DEATH ON RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN KENYA

Using a two-year panel of 1,422 Kenyan households surveyed in 1997 and 2000, we measure how prime-age adult mortality affects rural households' size and composition, agricultural production, asset levels, and off-farm income. First, the paper uses adult mortality rates from available data on an HIV-negative sample from neighboring Tanzania to predict the number of deaths that might have been expected in the absence of HIV, and compares this to the number of deaths actually recorded over the survey interval in the Kenyan sample. Based on this procedure, only a quarter of the prime-age female deaths in the 25-34 age range and about half of the male deaths in the 35-44 year age range age range could have been predicted on the basis of the HIV-negative Tanzanian adult mortality rates. In the Nyanza area, the discrepancies were even larger over a broader number of age/sex ranges. This provides a strong indication that AIDS accounts for a large proportion of the recorded deaths for these age/sex categories, particularly in the Nyanza area. Next, using a household fixed-effects model that controls for time-varying effects, we measure changes in outcomes between households afflicted by adult mortality vs. those not afflicted over the three-year survey period. The effects of adult death are highly sensitive to the gender and position of the deceased family member in the household. Households suffering the death of the head -of-household or spouse incurred a greater-than-one person loss in household size. The death of a male household head between 16 and 59 years is associated with a 68% reduction in the net value of the household's crop production. Female head-of-household or spouse mortality causes a greater decline in cereal area cultivated, while cash crops such as coffee, tea, and sugar are most adversely affected in households incurring the death of a prime-age male head. Off-farm income is also significantly affected by the death of the male head of household, but not in the case of other adult members. The death of other prime-age family members is partially offset by an inflow of other individuals into the family. Other prime-age family members' mortality has less dramatic effects on the households' agricultural production, assets, and off-farm income. Lastly, there is little indication that households are able to recover quickly from the effects of prime-age head-of-household adult mortality; the effects on crop and non-farm incomes do not decay at least over the three-year survey interval. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of these findings for agricultural research and extension programs as well as for safety net programs designed to cushion the impacts of prime-age adult death.Consumer/Household Economics,

Measuring the Effects of Prime-age Adult Mortality in Kenya

Published by Tegemeo Institute for Agricultural Policy and Developmentfood security, food policy, Kenya, prime-age adult mortality, Health Economics and Policy, Q18,

The Effects of Food Aid and Household Composition on Child Farm Labor Supply in Rural Ethiopia

This paper determines the effects of household demographic composition and food aid on child farm labor supply controlling for household fixed effects. The results indicate that a child has a higher probability of working on farm if he or she is living with younger children, suggesting that older children are reducing resource constraints. The results on food aid indicate that receiving free distribution has relatively larger positive effects on the probability of girls working on farm than boys, while participating in food for work has relatively larger negative effects

Working-age Adult Mortality and Primary Sschool Attendance in Rural Kenya

The rapid increase in adult mortality due to the AIDS epidemic in sub- Saharan Africa raises great concern about its impact on child welfare. This article estimates the impact of AIDS-related adult mortality on primary school attendance in rural Kenya using a panel of 1,266 households surveyed in 1997, 2000, and 2002. We find a strong correlation between working-age adult mortality and lagged HIV- prevalence rates at nearby sentinel survey sites. School attendance, especially for children in relatively poor households, is negatively correlated with lagged provincial HIV-prevalence rates. Children, especially girls in relatively poor households, are less likely to be in school directly prior to the death of an adult member than children in unafflicted households. By contrast, boys in relatively poor households are less likely to be in school after an adult death. The evidence indicates that rising adult mortality in rural Kenya is adversely affecting primary school attendance especially among the poor. However, these results measure only short-term impacts. Over the longer run, whether school attendance in afflicted household rebounds or deteriorates further is unknown.HIV/AIDS, Education, Kenya

Working-Age Adult Mortality and Primary School Attendance in Rural Kenya

The rapid increase in adult mortality due to the AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa raises great concern about potential intergenerational effects on children. This article estimates the impact of AIDS-related adult mortality on primary school attendance in rural Kenya using a panel of 1,266 households surveyed in 1997, 2000, and 2002. The paper distinguishes between effects on boys’ and girls’ education to understand potential gender differences resulting from adult mortality. We also estimate how adult mortality affects child schooling before as well as after the death occurs. The paper also estimates the importance of households’ initial asset levels in influencing the relationship between adult mortality and child school attendance. We find that all of these distinctions are important when estimating the magnitude of the effects of adult mortality on child school attendance. The probability that girls in initially poor households will remain in school prior to the death of a working age adult in the household drops from roughly 88% to 55%. Boys in relatively poor households are less likely than girls to be in school after an adult death. By contrast, we find no clear effects on girls’ or boys’ education among relatively non-poor households, either before or after the timing of adult mortality in the household. We find a strong correlation between working-age adult mortality in our data and lagged HIV-prevalence rates at nearby sentinel survey sites. The evidence indicates that rising AIDS-related adult mortality in rural Kenya is adversely affecting primary school attendance among the poor. However, these results measure only short-term impacts. Over the longer run, whether school attendance in afflicted household rebounds or deteriorates further is unknown.HIV/AIDS, Kenya, Education, Health Economics and Policy, Labor and Human Capital, O12, O15, J10, Q12,

Working-age Adult Mortality and Primary School Attendance in Rural Kenya

Published by Tegemeo Institute for Agricultural Policy and Developmentfood security, food policy, Kenya, adult mortality, education, Health Economics and Policy, Labor and Human Capital, Q18,