Isolating along-strike variations in the depth extent of shallow creep and fault locking on the northern Great Sumatran Fault

The Great Sumatran Fault system in Indonesia is a major right-lateral trench-parallel system that can be divided into several segments, most of which have ruptured within the last century. This study focuses on the northern portion of the fault system which contains a 200-km-long segment that has not experienced a major earthquake in at least 170 years. In 2005, we established the Aceh GPS Network for the Sumatran Fault System (AGNeSS) across this segment. AGNeSS observes large displacements which include significant postseismic deformation from recent large megathrust earthquakes as well as interseismic deformation due to continued elastic loading of both the megathrust and the strike slip system. We parameterize the displacements due to afterslip on the megathrust using a model based on a rate- and state-dependent friction formalism. Using this approach, we are able to separate afterslip from other contributions. We remove predicted deformation due to afterslip from the observations, and use these corrected time series to infer the depth of shallow aseismic creep and deeper locked segments for the Great Sumatran Fault. In the northern portion of this fault segment, we infer aseismic creep down to 7.3 ± 4.8 km depth at a rate of 2.0 ± 0.6 cm/year. In the southwestern portion of the segment, we estimate a locking depth of 14.8 ± 3.4 km with a downdip slip rate of 1.6 ± 0.6 cm/year. This portion of the fault is capable of producing a magnitude 7.0 earthquake

Development of a detection method for short-term slow slip events using GNSS data and its application to the Nankai subduction zone

Using global navigation satellite system (GNSS) data to detect millimeter-order signals of short-term slow slip events (S-SSEs) and to estimate their source parameters, especially duration, is challenging because of low signal-to-noise ratio. Although the duration of S-SSEs in the Nankai subduction zone has been estimated using tiltmeters, its regional variation has never been quantitatively studied. We developed an S-SSE detection method to estimate both the fault model and duration with their errors based on the detection methods developed by previous studies and applied it to a 23-year period of GNSS data in the Nankai subduction zone. We extracted S-SSE signals by calculating correlation coefficients between the GNSS time series and a synthetic template representing the time evolution of an S-SSE and by computing the average of correlation coefficients weighted by the predicted S-SSE signals. We enhanced the signals for duration estimation by stacking GNSS time series weighted by displacements calculated from the estimated fault model. By applying the developed method, we detected 284 S-SSEs from 1997 to 2020 in the Nankai subduction zone from Tokai to Kyushu and discussed their regional characteristics. The results include some newly detected S-SSEs, including events accompanying very low-frequency earthquakes and repeating earthquakes in offshore Kyushu. Our study provides the first geodetic evidence for synchronization of S-SSEs and other seismic phenomena in offshore Kyushu. We estimated the cumulative slip and duration, and their error carefully. We also estimated the average slip rate by dividing the cumulative slip by the cumulative duration. This study clarified that the average slip rate in western Shikoku was approximately twice as that in eastern Shikoku and Kyushu. These regional differences were statistically significant at the 95% confidence interval. Multiple factors can influence the regional characteristics of S-SSEs, and we speculate that the subducting plate interface geometry is one of the dominant factors

Long-term slow slip events with and without tremor activation in the Bungo Channel and Hyuganada, southwest Japan

Abstract Slow slip events (SSEs) lasting for approximately 1 year occur every 6–8 years around the Bungo Channel in the southwest Japan subduction zone. The slip time evolution of the latest Bungo Channel SSE that occurred in 2018–2019 has been studied; however, the detailed spatial and temporal relationship between the slip process and other nearby phenomena, such as tectonic tremors and SSEs, is not well understood. Moreover, the migration of such long-term SSEs from Hyuganada to Shikoku through the Bungo Channel has been suggested, but a slip process connecting the SSEs has not been observed. In this study, we utilized 21 continuous global navigation satellite system (GNSS) stations around the Bungo Channel and Hyuganada that have been installed by us since 2014 in addition to GNSS Earth Observation System (GEONET) stations to improve the spatial resolution of such interplate slip. Based on these data, we estimate the spatial and temporal slip evolutions of the major SSE in 2018–2019, which was accompanied by tremor activity in the deep episodic tremor and slip (ETS) zone, and a smaller SSE in 2015–2016 without tremor activity. We show that the slip area of the major SSE overlaps the ETS zone, whereas that of the smaller SSE does not. This strongly suggests that synchronized tremor activity with an SSE requires a slip close to or overlapping the ETS zone. We also show two distinct slip propagation paths from the Oita area during the 2018–2019 sequence: one is a southward propagation to the Miyazaki area, leading to an SSE around the Miyazaki Plain, and the other is an eastward propagation to an area close to Cape Ashizuri, where “invading slip” is proposed to propagate from the ETS zone to a shallower megathrust source area. These slip propagations may be two of fundamental slip modes that connect slow-slip patch-like areas around the Bungo Channel and Hyuganada. Graphic Abstrac

Asthenosphere rheology inferred from observations of the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake.

The concept of a weak asthenospheric layer underlying Earth's mobile tectonic plates is fundamental to our understanding of mantle convection and plate tectonics. However, little is known about the mechanical properties of the asthenosphere (the part of the upper mantle below the lithosphere) underlying the oceanic crust, which covers about 60 per cent of Earth's surface. Great earthquakes cause large coseismic crustal deformation in areas hundreds of kilometres away from and below the rupture area. Subsequent relaxation of the earthquake-induced stresses in the viscoelastic upper mantle leads to prolonged postseismic crustal deformation that may last several decades and can be recorded with geodetic methods. The observed postseismic deformation helps us to understand the rheological properties of the upper mantle, but so far such measurements have been limited to continental-plate boundary zones. Here we consider the postseismic deformation of the very large (moment magnitude 8.6) 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake to provide by far the most direct constraint on the structure of oceanic mantle rheology. In the first three years after the Indian Ocean earthquake, 37 continuous Global Navigation Satellite Systems stations in the region underwent horizontal northeastward displacements of up to 17 centimetres in a direction similar to that of the coseismic offsets. However, a few stations close to the rupture area that had experienced subsidence of up to about 4 centimetres during the earthquake rose by nearly 7 centimetres after the earthquake. Our three-dimensional viscoelastic finite-element models of the post-earthquake deformation show that a thin (30-200 kilometres), low-viscosity (having a steady-state Maxwell viscosity of (0.5-10) × 1018 pascal seconds) asthenospheric layer beneath the elastic oceanic lithosphere is required to produce the observed postseismic uplift

Asthenosphere rheology inferred from observations of the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake.

The concept of a weak asthenospheric layer underlying Earth's mobile tectonic plates is fundamental to our understanding of mantle convection and plate tectonics. However, little is known about the mechanical properties of the asthenosphere (the part of the upper mantle below the lithosphere) underlying the oceanic crust, which covers about 60 per cent of Earth's surface. Great earthquakes cause large coseismic crustal deformation in areas hundreds of kilometres away from and below the rupture area. Subsequent relaxation of the earthquake-induced stresses in the viscoelastic upper mantle leads to prolonged postseismic crustal deformation that may last several decades and can be recorded with geodetic methods. The observed postseismic deformation helps us to understand the rheological properties of the upper mantle, but so far such measurements have been limited to continental-plate boundary zones. Here we consider the postseismic deformation of the very large (moment magnitude 8.6) 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake to provide by far the most direct constraint on the structure of oceanic mantle rheology. In the first three years after the Indian Ocean earthquake, 37 continuous Global Navigation Satellite Systems stations in the region underwent horizontal northeastward displacements of up to 17 centimetres in a direction similar to that of the coseismic offsets. However, a few stations close to the rupture area that had experienced subsidence of up to about 4 centimetres during the earthquake rose by nearly 7 centimetres after the earthquake. Our three-dimensional viscoelastic finite-element models of the post-earthquake deformation show that a thin (30-200 kilometres), low-viscosity (having a steady-state Maxwell viscosity of (0.5-10) × 1018 pascal seconds) asthenospheric layer beneath the elastic oceanic lithosphere is required to produce the observed postseismic uplift