Global variation of COVID-19 mortality rates in the initial phase

Objective: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused devastation in over 200 countries. Italy, Spain, and the United States (US) were most severely affected by the first wave of the pandemic. The reasons why some countries were more strongly affected than others remain unknown. We identified the most-affected and less-affected countries and states and explored environmental, host, and infrastructure risk factors that may explain differences in the SARS-CoV-2 mortality burden.Methods: We identified the top 10 countries/US states with the highest deaths per population until May 2020. For each of these 10 case countries/states, we identified 6 control countries/states with a similar population size and at least 3 times fewer deaths per population. We extracted data for 30 risk factors from publicly available, trusted sources. We compared case and control countries/states using the non-parametric Wilcoxon rank-sum test, and conducted a secondary cluster analysis to explore the relationship between the number of cases per population and the number of deaths per population using a scalable EM (expectation-maximization) clustering algorithm.Results: Statistically significant differences were found in 16 of 30 investigated risk factors, the most important of which were temperature, neonatal and under-5 mortality rates, the percentage of under-5 deaths due to acute respiratory infections (ARIs) and diarrhea, and tuberculosis incidence (p \u3c 0.05).Conclusion: Countries with a higher burden of baseline pediatric mortality rates, higher pediatric mortality from preventable diseases like diarrhea and ARI, and higher tuberculosis incidence had lower rates of coronavirus disease 2019-associated mortality, supporting the hygiene hypothesis

Effect of diabetic counseling based on conversation map as compared to routine counseling on diabetes management self-efficacy and diabetic distress among patients with diabetes in Pakistan: a randomized controlled trial (study protocol)

Background: Novel interactive and pictorial health education tool named Diabetes Conversation Map (DCM) might be effective for the improvement of diabetes management self-efficacy (DMSE) and diabetes distress (DD) among diabetic patients in lower middle-income setting. This study protocol will assess the effectiveness of DCM as compared to routine care (RC) to improve DMSE, decrease DD and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) among patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Methods: This will be two arms randomized controlled trial, conducted at national institute of diabetes and endocrinology (NIDE) in Karachi, Pakistan. A sample of 120 T2DM patients of age 30–60 years with suboptimal diabetes control will be screened through eligibility criteria and DD screening tool. Patients who fulfill the eligibility criteria and have diabetes distress will be randomized into interventional and control arm. The intervention arm will receive four education sessions (40 min each) using DCM for 4 weeks duration of enrollment. Controlled arm will receive RC. DMSE and DD will be measured using the validated Likert tools at baseline and after 3 months of enrollment. Latest results of HbA1c will be retrieved from the respective medical record files at baseline and 3 months. Change in DMSE, DD scores and HbA1c levels within groups (pre-post) and between the groups after 3 months of enrollment will be compared. Multivariable linear regression will be conducted to adjust for any potential confounders. Discussion: In a study in UK, 70% of the patients with diabetes reported DCM had helped them in controlling their diabetes and recommended this method to teach other patients with diabetes also. In China, a study found that patients with diabetes who received DCM based education had significantly lower DD and significantly higher diabetes empowerment score after six months of the intervention as compared to the traditional counselling. A cross sectional study conducted in Pakistan also demonstrated that teaching based on DCM was useful in improving the knowledge, attitude and practices of patients with T2DM. Besides, no other study has evaluated the effectiveness of these novel tools for DMSE and diabetes distress DD in well-designed, sufficiently powered clinical trials. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03747471. Date of registration: Nov 20. 2018. Version and Date of Protocol: Version 1, IRB Approval date 28 June 2018

RSV associated hospitalizations in children in Karachi, Pakistan: Implications for vaccine prevention strategies

Major progress is being made in vaccines against Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), with multiple vaccine candidates currently in the clinical phase of development. Making an investment case for public sector financing of RSV vaccine will require estimation of burden, cost-effectiveness, and impact. The aim of this study is to determine the proportion, age distribution and clinical spectrum of RSV associated hospitalizations in children in Karachi, Pakistan. A three years prospective study was conducted at the Aga Khan University Hospital in Karachi, a city of 20 million in south Pakistan, from August 2009 to June 2012. Children less than five years old admitted with acute respiratory infections (ARI) were enrolled. Throat swabs were collected and tested for RSV using real-time PCR. Multivariable log binomial regression analysis was performed to identify the associated factors of RSV infection. Out of 1150 children enrolled, RSV was detected among 223 (19%). Highest rate of RSV detection was in young infants less than 3 months of age (48/168, 29%), which accounted for 22% of all RSV detected. Most common diagnosis in RSV positive infants (age) was bronchiolitis followed by pneumonia, while in older children between the ages of one and 5 years of age, pneumonia and asthma were the most common diagnosis. Although identified year-round, RSV was most prevalent from August to October with peak in September, coinciding with the rainy season. This study identified RSV to be independently associated with younger age (P = 0.036), rainy season (P \u3c 0.001), post-tussive emesis (P = 0.008), intubation (P = 0.003), and discharge diagnosis of bronchiolitis (P = 0.004). Vaccines against RSV that target this age group are likely to yield remarkable benefit

Response of extensively drug resistant salmonella typhi to treatment with meropenem and azithromycin, in Pakistan

Introduction: Salmonella Typhi is one of the leading health problems in Pakistan. With the emergence of extensively drug resistant (XDR) Salmonella Typhi, treatment options are limited. Here we report the clinical manifestations and the response to treatment of patients with XDR Typhoid fever. The patients were treated with either Meropenem or Azithromycin or a combination of both.Methods: We reviewed the records of culture confirmed XDR typhoid who visited Aga Khan University Hospital (AKUH), Karachi and Aga Khan Secondary Care Hospital, Hyderabad from April 2017 to June 2018. Symptoms developed during disease, unplanned treatment extension and complications developed while on antimicrobials was recorded. Means with standard deviation were calculated for duration of treatment, time to defervescence, and cost of treatment.Results: Records of 81 culture confirmed XDR typhoid patients admitted at the AKU hospitals were reviewed. Most, (n = 45; 56%) were male. Mean age of the cases was 8.03 years with range (1-40). About three quarter (n = 66) of the patients were treated as inpatient. Fever and vomiting were the most common symptoms at the time of presentation. Oral azithromycin alone (n = 22; 27%), intravenous meropenem alone (n = 20; 25%), or a combination of azithromycin and meropenem (n = 39; 48%) were the options used for treatment. Average (95% confidence interval) time to defervescence was 7.1(5.5-8.6), 6.7(4.7-8.7), and 6.7(5.5-7.9) days for each treatment option respectively whereas there were 1,0 and 3 treatment failures in each treatment option respectively. Average cost of treatment per day for azithromycin was US$5.87 whereas it was US$88.46 for meropenem.Conclusion: Patients treated with either Azithromycin, Meropenem alone or in combination showed similar time to defervescence. Because of the lower cost of azithromycin, it is preferable in lower socio-economic areas. Background estimates for power calculation can be made for more robust clinical trials using this observational data

Poliovirus excretion among children with primary immune deficiency in Pakistan: A pilot surveillance study protocol

Introduction: Children with primary immunodeficiency disorders (PID) are more susceptible to developing viral infections and are at a substantially increased risk of developing paralytic poliomyelitis. Such children, if given oral polio vaccines tend to excrete poliovirus chronically that may lead to the propagation of highly divergent vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV). Consequently, they may act as a reservoir for the community by introducing an altered virus potentially imposing a risk to global polio eradication. However, the risks of chronic and prolonged excretion are not well characterised in the study context. This study seeks to establish a pilot surveillance system for successful identification and monitoring of VDPV excretion among children with PID. It will assess whether the Jeffrey Modell warning signs of PID can be used as an appropriate screening tool for PID in Pakistan.Methods and analysis: In this pilot surveillance, recruitment of PID cases is currently done at participating hospitals in Pakistan. Potential children are screened and tested against the Jeffrey Modell Foundation (JMF) warning signs for immunodeficiency and their stool is collected to test for poliovirus excretion. Cases excreting poliovirus are followed until the two consecutive negative stool samples are obtained over a period of 6 months. The data will be analysed to calculate hospital-based proportions of total Immunodeficiency-related vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) cases over a 2-year period and to determine the sensitivity and specificity of the JMF signs.Ethics and dissemination: This protocol was reviewed and approved by the WHO (WHO Reference-2018/811124-0), Aga Khan University (AKU ERC-2018-0380-1029) and National Bioethics Committee (Ref No. 4-87 NBC-308-Y2). The results will be published in an open access peer-reviewed scientific journal and presented to the iVDPV Working Group members, policy-makers, paediatric consultants and fellow researchers with the same domain interest. It may be presented in scientific conferences and seminars in the form of oral or poster presentations

Typhoid and paratyphoid cost of illness in Pakistan: Patient and health facility costs from the surveillance for enteric fever in Asia project II

Background: The objective of this study was to estimate the cost of illness from enteric fever (typhoid and paratyphoid) at selected sites in Pakistan.Methods: We implemented a cost-of-illness study in 4 hospitals as part of the Surveillance for Enteric Fever in Asia Project (SEAP) II in Pakistan. From the patient and caregiver perspective, we collected direct medical, nonmedical, and indirect costs per case of enteric fever incurred since illness onset by phone after enrollment and 6 weeks later. From the health care provider perspective, we collected data on quantities and prices of resources used at 3 of the hospitals, to estimate the direct medical economic costs to treat a case of enteric fever. We collected costs in Pakistani rupees and converted them into 2018 US dollars. We multiplied the unit cost per procedure by the frequency of procedures in the surveillance case cohort to calculate the average cost per case.Results: We collected patient and caregiver information for 1029 patients with blood culture-confirmed enteric fever or with a nontraumatic terminal ileal perforation, with a median cost of illness per case of US $196.37 (IQR, US$72.89-496.40). The median direct medical and nonmedical costs represented 8.2% of the annual labor income. From the health care provider perspective, the estimated average direct medical cost per case was US $50.88 at Hospital A, US$52.24 at Hospital B, and US $11.73 at Hospital C.Conclusions: Enteric fever can impose a considerable economic burden in Pakistan. These new estimates of the cost of illness of enteric fever can improve evaluation and modeling of the costs and benefits of enteric fever prevention and control measures, including typhoid conjugate vaccines

Risk Factors Associated with Extensively Drug-Resistant Typhoid in an Outbreak Setting of Lyari Town Karachi, Pakistan

Typhoid fever is endemic in Pakistan, with high annual incidence rates. An outbreak of extensively drug-resistant typhoid fever that first started in the Hyderabad district of Sindh province in November 2016 immediately spread to the whole province. We conducted an age-matched case–control study to assess the risk factors of typhoid fever in an outbreak setting of Lyari Town, Karachi. We enrolled 82 patients with blood culture-confirmed Salmonella typhi between August 2019 to December 2019, 82 age-matched hospital and 164 age-matched community control subjects. In a matched conditional logistic regression model, consumption of meals outside the home more than once per month was associated significantly with developing culture-confirmed typhoid fever compared with no consumption of food outside the home (odds ratio, 4.11). Hygiene of the environment in which food is prepared, practices of adult food handlers, access to clean water, and food legislation play significant roles in the spread of typhoid fever.publishedVersionPeer reviewe

Strategies to improve coverage of typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) immunization campaign in Karachi, Pakistan

The emergence and spread of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) typhoid in Karachi, Pakistan led to an outbreak response in Lyari Town, Karachi utilizing a mass immunization campaign with typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV), Typbar TCV®. The mass immunization campaign, targeted Lyari Town, Karachi, one of the worst affected towns during the XDR typhoid outbreak. Here we describe the strategies used to improve acceptance and coverage of Typbar TCV in Lyari Town, Karachi. The mass immunization campaign with Typbar TCV was started as a school- and hospital-based vaccination campaign targeting children between the age of 6 months to 15 years old. A dose of 0.5 mL Typbar TCV was administered intramuscularly. A mobile vaccination campaign was added to cope with high absenteeism and non-response from parents in schools and to cover children out of school. Different strategies were found to be effective in increasing the vaccination coverage and in tackling vaccine hesitancy. Community engagement was the most successful strategy to overcome refusals and helped to gain trust in the newly introduced vaccine. Community announcements and playing typhoid jingles helped to increase awareness regarding the ongoing typhoid outbreak. Mop-up activity in schools was helpful in increasing coverage. Networking with locally active groups, clubs and community workers were found to be the key factors in decreasing refusals

A cluster-based, spatial-sampling method for assessing household healthcare utilization patterns in resource-limited settings

Background: Implementation of population-based surveys is resource intensive and logistically demanding, especially in areas with rapidly changing demographics and incomplete or no enumeration of the underlying population and their residences. To remove the need for pre-enumeration and to simplify field logistics for the population healthcare utilization survey used for the Surveillance for Enteric Fever in Asia Project in Nepal, we incorporated a geographic information system-based geosurvey and field mapping system into a single-stage cluster sampling approach.Methods: A survey was administered to ascertain healthcare-seeking behavior in individuals with recent suspected enteric fever. Catchment areas were based on residential addresses of enteric fever patients using study facilities; clusters were randomly selected from digitally created grids using available satellite images and all households within clusters were offered enrollment. A tablet-compatible geosurvey and mapping system that allowed for data-syncing and use in areas without cellular data was created using the ArcGIS suite of software.Results: Between January 2017 and November 2018, we surveyed 25 521 households in Nepal (16 769 in urban Kathmandu and 8752 in periurban Kavrepalanchok), representing 84 202 individuals. Overall, the survey participation rate was 90.9%, with geographic heterogeneity in participation rates within each catchment area. Areas with higher average household wealth had lower participation rates.Conclusion: A geographic information system-based geosurvey and field mapping system allowed creation of a virtual household map at the same time as survey administration, enabling a single-stage cluster sampling method to assess healthcare utilization in Nepal for the Surveillance for Enteric Fever in Asia Project . This system removed the need for pre-enumeration of households in sampling areas, simplified logistics and could be replicated in future community surveys

Diabetes conversation map - A novel tool for diabetes management self-efficacy among type 2 diabetes patients in Pakistan: A randomized controlled trial

Background: This study aimed to measure the effect of diabetes education using the novel method of diabetes conversation map (DCM) as compared to routine counselling (RC) on diabetes management self-efficacy (DMSE) among patients living with type 2 diabetes in Karachi, Pakistan.Methods: A parallel arm randomized controlled trial among patients with type 2 diabetes aged 30-60 years, with HbA1c \u3e 7%, diagnosed for at least 5 yrs., was conducted at the national institute of diabetes and endocrinology in Karachi, Pakistan. A total 123 type 2 diabetes patients were randomized into DCM (n = 62) or RC (n = 61). Four weekly diabetes control sessions of 40 min each using the DCM or RC was provided. DMSE was measured using a validated Urdu language DMSE tool at baseline and after three months of the randomization. Change in DMSE and HbA1c levels within groups (pre-post) and between the groups after 3 months of enrollment was compared.Results: Baseline characteristics except HbA1c were similar between the two arms. After 3 months of enrollment, there was no change in the DMSE score in the RC arm however, significant increase in DMSE score was noted in the DCM arm (P = \u3c 0.001). The average difference (95% confidence interval) in DMSE score between the DCM and RC arm was 33.7(27.3, 40.0; p = \u3c 0.001) after 3 months of the enrollment. Difference in HbA1c within groups was not significant.Conclusions: DCM significantly improved DMSE among type 2 diabetes patients in a developing country setting like Pakistan. Healthcare workers caring for type 2 diabetes patients need to be trained on DCM to effectively utilize this novel tool for educating diabetes patients.Trial registration: This trial was prospectively registered. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03747471. Date of registration: Nov 20. 2018