Predicting Fluctuations in Cryptocurrency Transactions Based on User Comments and Replies

<div><p>This paper proposes a method to predict fluctuations in the prices of cryptocurrencies, which are increasingly used for online transactions worldwide. Little research has been conducted on predicting fluctuations in the price and number of transactions of a variety of cryptocurrencies. Moreover, the few methods proposed to predict fluctuation in currency prices are inefficient because they fail to take into account the differences in attributes between real currencies and cryptocurrencies. This paper analyzes user comments in online cryptocurrency communities to predict fluctuations in the prices of cryptocurrencies and the number of transactions. By focusing on three cryptocurrencies, each with a large market size and user base, this paper attempts to predict such fluctuations by using a simple and efficient method.</p></div

System overview.

<p>System overview.</p

Experimental result of predicted Ripple price fluctuation.

<p>Experimental result of predicted Ripple price fluctuation.</p

Statistical significance (p-values) of bivariate Granger causality correlation for the number of transactions and community opinion for Bitcoin.

<p>Statistical significance (p-values) of bivariate Granger causality correlation for the number of transactions and community opinion for Bitcoin.</p

Experimental result of predicted Ethereum fluctuation.

<p>Experimental result of predicted Ethereum fluctuation.</p

Statistical significance (p-values) of bivariate Granger causality correlation for Bitcoin price and community opinion.

<p>Statistical significance (p-values) of bivariate Granger causality correlation for Bitcoin price and community opinion.</p

Increment/decrement in the amount of simulated investment in Bitcoin.

<p>Increment/decrement in the amount of simulated investment in Bitcoin.</p

Summary of crawled opinion data.

<p>Summary of crawled opinion data.</p

Z-scores of fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices overlapping with results of opinion analysis.

<p>Some opinions show a trend similar to that of fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices.</p

Statistical significance (p-values) of bivariate Granger causality correlation for Ripple’s price and community opinion.

<p>Statistical significance (p-values) of bivariate Granger causality correlation for Ripple’s price and community opinion.</p