Future Choices – Future trends in technology and their impact

This report has been produced by the UK Government’s Foresight Programme. Foresight is run by the Government Office for Science under the direction of the Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government. Foresight creates challenging visions of the future to ensure effective strategies now. Details of all the reports and papers produced within this Foresight project can be obtained from the Foresight website (www.foresight.gov.uk). Any queries may also be directed through this website. This report was commissioned by the Foresight programme of the Government Office for Science to support its project on Tackling Obesities: Future Choices. The views are not the official point of view of any organisation or individual, are independent of Government and do not constitute Government policy. This report was commissioned by the Foresight Programme of the Government Office for Science to support its Tackling Obesities: Future Choices project. The purpose of this report is to explore the future impact of new technologies on obesity, health and maintenance of energy balance over the next 20 years in th

Long-term cost-effectiveness of weight management in primary care

Background: As obesity prevalence and health-care costs increase, Health Care providers must prevent and manage obesity cost-effectively. Methods: Using the 2006 NICE obesity health economic model, a primary care weight management programme ( Counterweight) was analysed, evaluating costs and outcomes associated with weight gain for three obesity-related conditions ( type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, colon cancer). Sensitivity analyses examined different scenarios of weight loss and background ( untreated) weight gain. Results: Mean weight changes in Counterweight attenders was -3 kg and -2.3 kg at 12 and 24 months, both 4 kg below the expected 1 kg/year background weight gain. Counterweight delivery cost was 59.83 pound per patient entered. Even assuming dropouts/non-attenders at 12 months (55%) lost no weight and gained at the background rate, Counterweight was 'dominant' (cost-saving) under 'base-case scenario', where 12-month achieved weight loss was entirely regained over the next 2 years, returning to the expected background weight gain of 1 kg/year. Quality-adjusted Life-Year cost was 2017 pound where background weight gain was limited to 0.5 kg/year, and 2651 pound at 0.3 kg/year. Under a 'best-case scenario', where weights of 12-month-attenders were assumed thereafter to rise at the background rate, 4 kg below non-intervention trajectory ( very close to the observed weight change), Counterweight remained 'dominant' with background weight gains 1 kg, 0.5 kg or 0.3 kg/year. Conclusion: Weight management for obesity in primary care is highly cost-effective even considering only three clinical consequences. Reduced healthcare resources use could offset the total cost of providing the Counterweight Programme, as well as bringing multiple health and Quality of Life benefits