Application of sector and location specific models of the "worth" of renewable energy technologies

Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind hold the potential for providing a significant portion of the U.S. energy requirements in the decades ahead. Unlike other energy sources their availability is determined by nonrandom events beyond the control of the consumer. In addition, macro-, meso-, and microclimatic conditions play a major role in determining the worth of such renewable energy sources to their owners. The worth of these new technologies will be a function of owner, location, and application as well as the traditional capital and operating cost, i.e., their worth to an owner in the southwest will be different form that to an owner in the northeast or the southeast. Dealing with energy sources, with geographic and sectorally specific energy values and with energy technologies with which we have little or no experience in the marketplace has created a set of challenges in analysis and modeling of these new technologies in competition with traditional energy technologies and with other emerging technologies. This paper will look at one simulation methodology for estimating the worth of renewable energy systems providing electricity, such as wind or solar photovoltaic power systems, and will discuss the interaction between such systems and traditional electric utilities with which they may or may not be integrated, be owned or be co-located. The paper concludes with a discussion of the issues associated with the incorporation of econometric techniques into such a simulation modeling structure

The economics of water lifting for small scale irrigation in the third world: |b traditional and photovoltaic technologies

Previously issued as MIT Energy Laboratory Working paper # MIT-EL-78-015wp, August 1978.Much of the non-traditional, irrigated, agricultural land in developing nations utilizes pumping technologies which have been adapted from the developed nations. These technologies are adaptable to the medium and large scale farms (individual farms in excess of 2 hectares) but are not adaptable to smaller farms. It has been these larger third world farmers who have been able to take the fullest advantage of the benefits of new seed varieties in wheat and rice combined with fertilizer and water, the ingredients of the "green revolution." This short paper summarizes the experience to date of developing water pumping systems for small farms in selected deltaic areas of the 'third world,' those areas in which irrigation water is available at depths between 1.5 and 4.5 meters (m). These areas include the Nile, Euphrates, Indus, Ganges, Irrawaddy, and Mekong River Basins which combined encompass 50 million hectares of the earth's surface (less than one percent of the earth's land area) and contain roughly 250 million people (nearly 7 percent of the world's population). The analyses evaluate water supplied by traditional means--human and animal--by conventional systems--diesel, gasoline and electric--and by renewable resource systems, in particular photovoltaic powered systems. A review of previous studies indicate that the value of water for irrigation is in the range of two to three cents (U.S.) per cubic meter (m3). The methods of lifting water, available to farmers on land areas of one hectare or less, provide water at costs in excess of this two to three cents (U.S.) per m3. Investigations of the Shadoof systems of North Africa and Asia show costs of water as high as seven cents (U.S.) per cubic meter. An evaluation of animal power used to operate a Persian wheel resulted with water costs that varied with the amount of feed required by the animal from 1 to 4/m3. Four pumping systems were investigated using conventional power systems: two diesel, one gasoline, and one electric. Since pumping systems have relatively fixed sizes and prices, the costs generally exceed the benefits for the small farmer. The cost per cubic meter for irrigating one hectare averaged: 3.5¢ (U.S.) for diesel in Chad; 4.0¢ (U.S.) for gasoline in Chad; 3.5Q (U.S.) for diesel in India; and 3.0t (U.S.) for electricity in India. In each of these instances, the cost of supplying small scale farmers with water using conventional systems was greater than the economic value of the water supplied. A fifth pumping system investigated herein utilized a high technology power system, photovoltaic cells combined with efficient electric motor and pump devices. The cost of providing water utilizing the photovoltaic power system resulted in costs of 2.8t/m3 (U.S.) to lift the water 1.5m and 5.44/m3 (U.S.) for lifting heads of 4.5m, at today's cell prices ($10/Wp). If photovoltaic power system costs are reduced to$4.00 per peak watt (Wp), the cost of irrigation water for a lift of 1.5m would be 1.2¢/m3, and for a lift of 4.5m would be 2.3*/m3

Planning for future uncertainties in electric power generation : an analysis of transitional strategies for reduction of carbon and sulfur emissions

The object of this paper is to identify strategies for the U.S. electric utility industry for reduction of both acid rain producing and global warming gases. The research used the EPRI Electric Generation Expansion Analysis System (EGEAS) utility optimization/simulation modeling structure and the EPRI developed regional utilities. It focuses on the North East and East Central region of the U.S. Strategies identified were fuel switching -- predominantly between coal and natural gas, mandated emission limits, and a carbon tax. The overall conclusions of the study are that using less (conservation) will always benefit Carbon Emissions but may or may not benefit Acid Rain emissions by the offsetting forces of improved performance of new plant as opposed to reduced overall consumption of final product. Results of the study are highly utility and regional demand specific. The study showed, however, that significant reductions in both acid rain and global warming gas production could be achieved with relatively small increases in the overall cost of production of electricity and that the current dispatch logics available to the utility control rooms were adequate to reschedule dispatch to meet these objectives.Supported by teh MIT Center for Energy Policy Research

A uniform economic valuation methodology for solar photovoltaic applications competing in a utility environment

The question of how the economic benefits of weather-dependent electric generation technologies should be measured is addressed, with specific reference to dispersed, user-owned photovoltaic systems. The approach to photovoltaic R&D investment that has historically been practiced by the Federal Government is described in order to demonstrate the need for an economic value measure. Two methods presently in common use, busbar energy costs and total systems costs, are presented and their strengths and weaknesses highlighted. A methodology is then presented which measures the "worth" of a system to a user and the implications of this analysis for R&D investment are discussed. Finally, a simple simulation model of a photovoltaic residence is designed which demonstrates the use of the suggested methodology

Homeostatic control : economic integration of solar technologies into electric power operations and planning

The economic and technical interfaces between the electrical utility and the distributed, nondispatchable electric generation systems are only minimally understood at the present time. This paper will discuss the economic issues associated with the interface of new energy technologies and the electric utility grid. The paper then introduces the concept of Homeostatic Control as developed by the author and others at MIT and discusses the use of such an economic concept applied to the introduction of nondispatchable technologies into the existing utility system. The paper concludes with a discussion of the transition and potential impact of a Homoeostatic Control system working with the existing electric utility system

Uniform Pricing or Pay-as-Bid Pricing: A Dilemma for California and Beyond

Any belief that a shift from uniform to as-bid pricing would provide power purchasers substantial relief from soaring prices is simply mistaken. The immediate consequence of its introduction would be a radical change in bidding behavior that would introduce new inefficiencies, weaken competition in new generation, and impede expansion of capacity.Auctions, Electricity Auctions, Multiple Item Auctions

SERI photovoltaic venture analysis : long term demand estimation

This report presents the results of a sectoral demand analysis for photo- voltaic power systems used in the residential sector single family homes], the service, commercial, and institutional sector [schools] and in the central power sector. The results described are the output of a set of three normative modeling activities carried out by the MIT Energy Laboratory, They are based on the assumption that the actors, i.e., the utilities, schools, and homeowners, will switch to photovoltaic power systems when they are cost-effective relative to the competition, that is, centralized power generation using conventional fuels. In each case the assumption is made that the market for photovoltaic power systems will be a new market, not a retrofit market. As a result the annual (total for utilities) sales potential at a given price is estimated for each sector assuming a specific level of new installations in that sector, i.e., new single-family homes, new schools, and additions to utility stocks. As such, the results presented are maxima for a given application. While the methodology presented does not allow for any early acceptors, it does assume that once economic all new homeowners, school-builders, and utilities will buy to a fixed level