91 research outputs found

    A New Proposal for Collection and Generation of Information on Financial Institutions' Risk: the case of derivatives

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    This article aims at providing a new alternative for the collection of information on risks taken by financial institutions, which enables the calculation of risk tools usually used in risk management, such as VaR and stress tests. This approach should help risk managers, off-site supervision and academics in assessing the potential risks in financial institutions principally due to derivatives positions. The basic idea, for linear financial instruments, like the traditionally used by the management risk systems, is to reduce positions in risk factors and then mapping by vertices. For the nonlinear financial instruments all of the positions in different types of options – European, Americans, exotic, etc.– are represented as plain vanilla European options or replicated by portfolios of plain vanilla European options. The methodology was applied to Brazil, within the worst scenarios during the period from 1994 to 2004, and the paper demonstrates that the proposed approach captured the risks satisfactorily in the analyzed portfolios, including the risk existent in the strategies involving options, given an accepted error margin. This approach could be useful for regulators, risk managers; financial institutions and risk management modeling as it can be used as an input in general risk management models.

    Forecasting Interest Rates: an application for Brazil

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    Understanding the links between long and short-term interest rates is crucial for monetary policy makers, since Central Banks decide and set short-term interest rates in order to affect indirectly long-term interest rates, which affects aggregate spending. This paper studies whether VAR/VEC models are useful in predicting long-term interest rates for Brazil. The empirical results suggest that these models are useful in building qualitative scenarios for the Term structure of interest rates, but do not provide good forecasts in terms of accuracy. Furthermore, models that assume that the future path of short-term interest rates (target interest rates) is known by forecasters do not perform better in terms of both directional and forecasting accuracy.

    How Informative Are Interest Rate Survey-based Forecasts?

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    This paper studies the information content of survey-based predictions for the Brazilian short-term interest rate. We perform vector autoregression analysis to test for the dynamic relationship between market expectations of interest rates and spot interest rates, and a single regression forecasting approach. Empirical results suggest that surveys may be useful in assessing market expectations (contain relevant information) and in building Central Bank credibility. Within an inflation targeting framework they are crucial in order to receive timely feedback on market sentiment regarding the conduct of monetary policy

    Cognitive Systems For Revenge and Forgiveness

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    Minimizing the costs that others impose upon oneself and upon those in whom one has a fitness stake, such as kin and allies, is a key adaptive problem for many organisms. Our ancestors regularly faced such adaptive problems (including homicide, bodily harm, theft, mate poaching, cuckoldry, reputational damage, sexual aggression, and the infliction of these costs on one\u27s offspring, mates, coalition partners, or friends). One solution to this problem is to impose retaliatory costs on an aggressor so that the aggressor and other observers will lower their estimates of the net benefits to be gained from exploiting the retaliator in the future. We posit that humans have an evolved cognitive system that implements this strategy - deterrence - which we conceptualize as a revenge system. The revenge system produces a second adaptive problem: losing downstream gains from the individual on whom retaliatory costs have been imposed. We posit, consequently, a subsidiary computational system designed to restore particular relationships after cost-imposing interactions by inhibiting revenge and motivating behaviors that signal benevolence for the harmdoer. The operation of these systems depends on estimating the risk of future exploitation by the harmdoer and the expected future value of the relationship with the harmdoer. We review empirical evidence regarding the operation of these systems, discuss the causes of cultural and individual differences in their outputs, and sketch their computational architecture

    O Comportamento Cíclico do Capital dos Bancos Brasileiros

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    No contexto de transição regulamentar para os padrões do acordo de Basiléia II, este artigo analisa o comportamento cíclico do capital bancário brasileiro sob a regulação atual. Utilizamos um painel não-balanceado de dados dos bancos operando no Brasil entre 2003 e 2008 para estimar, através de técnicas de painel dinâmico, uma equação do capital econômico dos bancos. Nossos resultados mostram que esta variável move-se com o ciclo de negócios.Bancos, Basiléia II, Ciclos Econômicos, Capital dos Bancos
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