Estimation of dynamical model parameters taking into account undetectable marker values

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models are widely used for studying the dynamic of infectious agents such as hepatitis C virus (HCV). Most often, model parameters are estimated using standard least-square procedures for each individual. Hierarchical models have been proposed in such applications. However, another issue is the left-censoring (undetectable values) of plasma viral load due to the lack of sensitivity of assays used for quantification. A method is proposed to take into account left-censored values for estimating parameters of non linear mixed models and its impact is demonstrated through a simulation study and an actual clinical trial of anti-HCV drugs. METHODS: The method consists in a full likelihood approach distinguishing the contribution of observed and left-censored measurements assuming a lognormal distribution of the outcome. Parameters of analytical solution of system of differential equations taking into account left-censoring are estimated using standard software. RESULTS: A simulation study with only 14% of measurements being left-censored showed that model parameters were largely biased (from -55% to +133% according to the parameter) with the exception of the estimate of initial outcome value when left-censored viral load values are replaced by the value of the threshold. When left-censoring was taken into account, the relative bias on fixed effects was equal or less than 2%. Then, parameters were estimated using the 100 measurements of HCV RNA available (with 12% of left-censored values) during the first 4 weeks following treatment initiation in the 17 patients included in the trial. Differences between estimates according to the method used were clinically significant, particularly on the death rate of infected cells. With the crude approach the estimate was 0.13 day(-1 )(95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.11; 0.17) compared to 0.19 day(-1 )(CI: 0.14; 0.26) when taking into account left-censoring. The relative differences between estimates of individual treatment efficacy according to the method used varied from 0.001% to 37%. CONCLUSION: We proposed a method that gives unbiased estimates if the assumed distribution is correct (e.g. lognormal) and that is easy to use with standard software

HDV can constrain HBV genetic evolution in hbsag: Implications for the identification of innovative pharmacological targets

Chronic HBV + HDV infection is associated with greater risk of liver fibrosis, earlier hepatic decompensation, and liver cirrhosis hepatocellular carcinoma compared to HBV mono-infection. However, to-date no direct anti-HDV drugs are available in clinical practice. Here, we identified conserved and variable regions in HBsAg and HDAg domains in HBV + HDV infection, a critical finding for the design of innovative therapeutic agents. The extent of amino-acid variability was measured by Shannon-Entropy (Sn) in HBsAg genotype-D sequences from 31 HBV + HDV infected and 62 HBV mono-infected patients (comparable for demographics and virological-parameters), and in 47 HDAg genotype-1 sequences. Positions with Sn = 0 were defined as conserved. The percentage of conserved HBsAg-positions was significantly higher in HBV + HDV infection than HBV mono-infection (p = 0.001). Results were confirmed after stratification for HBeAg-status and patients’ age. A Sn = 0 at specific positions in the C-terminus HBsAg were correlated with higher HDV-RNA, suggesting that conservation of these positions can preserve HDV-fitness. Conversely, HDAg was characterized by a lower percentage of conserved-residues than HBsAg (p < 0.001), indicating higher functional plasticity. Furthermore, specific HDAg-mutations were significantly correlated with higher HDV-RNA, suggesting a role in conferring HDV replicative-advantage. Among HDAg-domains, only the virus-assembly signal exhibited a high genetic conservation (75% of conserved-residues). In conclusion, HDV can constrain HBsAg genetic evolution to preserve its fitness. The identification of conserved regions in HDAg poses the basis for designing innovative targets against HDV-infection

Resuming Training in High-Level Athletes After Mild COVID-19 Infection: A Multicenter Prospective Study (ASCCOVID-19)

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of data on cardiovascular sequelae of asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic SARS-Cov-2 infections (COVID). OBJECTIVES: The aim of this prospective study was to characterize the cardiovascular sequelae of asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic COVID-19 among high/elite-level athletes. METHODS: 950 athletes (779 professional French National Rugby League (F-NRL) players; 171 student athletes) were included. SARS-Cov-2 testing was performed at inclusion, and F-NRL athletes were intensely followed-up for incident COVID-19. Athletes underwent ECG and biomarker profiling (D-Dimer, troponin, C-reactive protein). COVID(+) athletes underwent additional exercise testing, echocardiography and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR). RESULTS: 285/950 athletes (30.0%) had mild/asymptomatic COVID-19 [79 (8.3%) at inclusion (COVID(+)(prevalent)); 206 (28.3%) during follow-up (COVID(+)(incident))]. 2.6% COVID(+) athletes had abnormal ECGs, while 0.4% had an abnormal echocardiogram. During stress testing (following 7-day rest), COVID(+) athletes had a functional capacity of 12.8 ± 2.7 METS with only stress-induced premature ventricular ectopy in 10 (4.3%). Prevalence of CMR scar was comparable between COVID(+) athletes and controls [COVID(+) vs. COVID(-); 1/102 (1.0%) vs 1/28 (3.6%)]. During 289 ± 56 days follow-up, one athlete had ventricular tachycardia, with no obvious link with a SARS-CoV-2 infection. The proportion with troponin I and CRP values above the upper-limit threshold was comparable between pre- and post-infection (5.9% vs 5.9%, and 5.6% vs 8.7%, respectively). The proportion with D-Dimer values above the upper-limit threshold increased when comparing pre- and post-infection (7.9% vs 17.3%, P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: The absence of cardiac sequelae in pauci/asymptomatic COVID(+) athletes is reassuring and argues against the need for systematic cardiac assessment prior to resumption of training (clinicaltrials.gov; NCT04936503).L'Institut de Rythmologie et modélisation Cardiaqu

Covichem: A biochemical severity risk score of COVID-19 upon hospital admission

Clinical and laboratory predictors of COVID-19 severity are now well described and combined to propose mortality or severity scores. However, they all necessitate saturable equipment such as scanners, or procedures difficult to implement such as blood gas measures. To provide an easy and fast COVID-19 severity risk score upon hospital admission, and keeping in mind the above limits, we sought for a scoring system needing limited invasive data such as a simple blood test and co-morbidity assessment by anamnesis. A retrospective study of 303 patients (203 from Bordeaux University hospital and an external independent cohort of 100 patients from Paris Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital) collected clinical and biochemical parameters at admission. Using stepwise model selection by Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), we built the severity score Covichem. Among 26 tested variables, 7: obesity, cardiovascular conditions, plasma sodium, albumin, ferritin, LDH and CK were the independent predictors of severity used in Covichem (accuracy 0.87, AUROC 0.91). Accuracy was 0.92 in the external validation cohort (89% sensitivity and 95% specificity). Covichem score could be useful as a rapid, costless and easy to implement severity assessment tool during acute COVID-19 pandemic waves

Immune-escape mutations and stop-codons in HBsAg develop in a large proportion of patients with chronic HBV infection exposed to anti-HBV drugs in Europe

Background: HBsAg immune-escape mutations can favor HBV-transmission also in vaccinated individuals, promote immunosuppression-driven HBV-reactivation, and increase fitness of drug-resistant strains. Stop-codons can enhance HBV oncogenic-properties. Furthermore, as a consequence of the overlapping structure of HBV genome, some immune-escape mutations or stop-codons in HBsAg can derive from drug-resistance mutations in RT. This study is aimed at gaining insight in prevalence and characteristics of immune-associated escape mutations, and stop-codons in HBsAg in chronically HBV-infected patients experiencing nucleos(t)ide analogues (NA) in Europe. Methods: This study analyzed 828 chronically HBV-infected European patients exposed to ≥ 1 NA, with detectable HBV-DNA and with an available HBsAg-sequence. The immune-associated escape mutations and the NA-induced immune-escape mutations sI195M, sI196S, and sE164D (resulting from drug-resistance mutation rtM204 V, rtM204I, and rtV173L) were retrieved from literature and examined. Mutations were defined as an aminoacid substitution with respect to a genotype A or D reference sequence. Results: At least one immune-associated escape mutation was detected in 22.1% of patients with rising temporal-trend. By multivariable-analysis, genotype-D correlated with higher selection of ≥ 1 immune-associated escape mutation (OR[95%CI]:2.20[1.32-3.67], P = 0.002). In genotype-D, the presence of ≥ 1 immune-associated escape mutations was significantly higher in drug-exposed patients with drug-resistant strains than with wild-type virus (29.5% vs 20.3% P = 0.012). Result confirmed by ana

Interprétation des index sérologiques lors du dépistage de l'hepatite C (aide à la prédiction du statut virologique)

BORDEAUX2-BU Santé (330632101) / SudocSudocFranceF

Evaluation of the VERSANT HCV RNA 3.0 Assay for Quantification of Hepatitis C Virus RNA in Serum

We assessed the performance of a new assay (VERSANT HCV RNA 3.0 [bDNA 3.0] assay [Bayer Diagnostics]) to quantitate HCV RNA levels and compared the results of the bDNA 3.0 assay to results of the Quantiplex HCV RNA 2.0 (bDNA 2.0) assay. Samples used in this study included 211 serum specimens from hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected persons from two sites (Bordeaux and Marseille, France) with different genotypes; 383 serum specimens from HCV antibody-negative, HCV RNA-negative persons; and serial dilutions of World Health Organization (WHO) HCV RNA standard at a titer of 100,000 IU/ml. The specificity of the bDNA 3.0 assay was 98.2%. A high correlation was observed between expected and observed values in all dilutions of WHO standard (r = 0.9982), in serial dilutions of pooled samples (r = 0.9996), and in diluted sera from different HCV genotypes (r = 0.9930 to 0.9995). The standard deviations (SD) for the within-run and between-run reproducibility of the bDNA 3.0 assay were ≤0.2 and ≤0.14, respectively. The intersite SD ranged from 0.03 to 0.14. The bDNA 3.0 assay results were positively correlated with the bDNA 2.0 assay results (r = 0.9533). Taking in account the overall performance, this assay could be used as a routine tool for the HCV RNA quantification

TRANSIENT ELASTOGRAPHY AND BIOMARKERS FOR LIVER FIBROSIS ASSESSMENT AND FOLLOW-UP OF INACTIVE HEPATITIS B CARRIERS

International audienceABSTRACT Aim To evaluate longitudinally transient elastography (TE) and biomarkers for liver fibrosis assessment and follow-up of hepatitis B virus (HBV) inactive carriers. Methods Three hundred and twenty-nine consecutive HBeAg-negative HBV patients (201 inactive carriers) who underwent TE, Fibrotest® and APRI the same day were studied. Results TE (median 4.8 vs. 6.8 kPa, p7.2 kPa) confirmed during follow-up in two with significant fibrosis (F2 and F3) on liver biopsy. Conclusions Non invasive tools, particularly transient elastography, could be useful, in addition to HBV DNA and transaminase levels, for follow-up of HBV inactive carriers as well as better selection of patients who require a liver biopsy