Assessment of Yellow Fever Epidemic Risk: An Original Multi-criteria Modeling Approach

This article describes the use of an original modeling approach to assess the risk of yellow fever (YF) epidemics. YF is a viral hemorrhagic fever responsible in past centuries for devastating outbreaks. Since the 1930s, a vaccine has been available that protects the individual for at least 10 years, if not for life. However, immunization of populations in African countries was gradually discontinued after the 1960s. With the decrease in immunity against YF in African populations the disease reemerged in the 1980s. In 2005, WHO, UNICEF, and the GAVI Alliance decided to support preventive vaccination of at-risk populations in West African endemic countries in order to tackle the reemergence of YF and reduce the risk of urban YF outbreaks. Financial resources were made available to scale up a global YF vaccine stockpile and to support countries with limited resources in the management of preventive vaccination campaigns. This article describes the process we used to determine the most at-risk populations using a mathematical model to prioritize targeted immunization campaigns. We believe that this approach could be useful for other diseases for which decision making process is difficult because of limited data availability, complex risk variables, and a need for rapid decisions and implementation

Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals

During 2015–2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs

Prognostic value of CT coronary angiography in diabetic and non-diabetic subjects with suspected CAD: importance of presenting symptoms

AIM: To assess the prognostic relevance of 64-slice computed tomography coronary angiography (CT-CA) and symptoms in diabetics and non-diabetics referred for cardiac evaluation. METHODS: We followed 210 patients with diabetes type 2 (DM) and 203 non-diabetic patients referred for CT-CA for ruling out coronary artery disease (CAD). Patients were without known history of CAD and were divided into four categories on the basis of symptoms at presentation (none, atypical angina, typical angina and dyspnoea). Clinical end points were major cardiac events (MACE): cardiac-related death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, unstable angina and cardiac revascularizations. Cox proportional hazard models, with and without adjustment for risk factors and multiplicative interaction term (obstructive CAD 7 DM), were developed to predict outcome. RESULTS: DM patients with dyspnoea or who were asymptomatic showed a higher prevalence of obstructive CAD than non-diabetics (p\u2009 64\u20090.01). At mean follow-up of 20.4 months, DM patients had worse cardiac event-free survival in comparison with non-DM patients (90% vs. 81%, p\u2009=\u20090.02). In multivariate analysis, CT-CA evidence of obstructive CAD (in DM patients: HR: 6.4; 95% CI: 2.3-17.5; p\u2009100 in non-DM patients (HR: 5.6; 95% CI: 1.4-21.5; p\u2009=\u20090.01). In Cox regression analysis of the overall population, interaction term obstructive CAD 7 DM resulted in non-significance. CONCLUSIONS: Among DM patients, dyspnoea carried a high event risk with a MACE rate four times higher. CT-CA findings were strongly predictive of outcome and proved valuable for further risk stratification