Surrogate markers and survival in women receiving first-line combination anthracycline chemotherapy for advanced breast cancer

Surrogate markers may help predict the effects of first-line treatment on survival. This metaregression analysis examines the relationship between several surrogate markers and survival in women with advanced breast cancer after receiving first-line combination anthracycline chemotherapy 5-fluorouracil, adriamycin and cyclophosphamide (FAC) or 5-fluorouracil, epirubicin and cyclophosphamide (FEC) . From a systematic literature review, we identified 42 randomised trials. The surrogate markers were complete or partial tumour response, progressive disease and time to progression. The treatment effect on survival was quantified by the hazard ratio. The treatment effect on each surrogate marker was quantified by the odds ratio (or ratio of median time to progression). The relationship between survival and each surrogate marker was assessed by a weighted linear regression of the hazard ratio against the odds ratio. There was a significant linear association between survival and complete or partial tumour response (P<0.001, R2=34%), complete tumour response (P=0.02, R2=12%), progressive disease (P<0.001, R2=38%) and time to progression (P<0.0001, R2=56%); R2 is the proportion of the variability in the treatment effect on survival that is explained by the treatment effect on the surrogate marker. Time to progression may be a useful surrogate marker for predicting survival in women receiving first-line anthracycline chemotherapy and could be used to estimate the survival benefit in future trials of first-line chemotherapy compared to FAC or FEC. The other markers, tumour response and progressive disease, were less good

The androgen-regulated gene human kallikrein 15 (KLK15) is an independent and favourable prognostic marker for breast cancer

Many kallikrein genes were found to be differentially expressed in various malignancies, and prostate specific antigen (encoded by the KLK3 gene) is the best tumour marker for prostate cancer. Prostate specific antigen has recently been shown to be an independent favourable prognostic marker for breast cancer. KLK15 is newly discovered kallikrein gene that is located adjacent to KLK3 on chromosome 19q13.4. KLK15 has 41% similarity to KLK3 and the encoded protein, hK15, can activate pro-prostate specific antigen. We studied the expression of KLK15 by real-time quantitative reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction in 202 tissues from patients with breast carcinoma of various stages, grades and histological types. KLK15 expression was found to be a significant predictor of progression-free survival (hazard ratio of 0.41 and P=0.011) and overall survival (hazard ratio of 0.34 and P=0.009). When all other known confounders were controlled in the multivariate analysis, KLK15 retained its prognostic significance. Higher concentrations of KLK15 mRNA were found more frequently in node negative patients (P=0.042). No association was found between KLK15 expression and any other clinicopathological variable. Further, KLK15 is an independent prognostic factor of progression-free survival and overall survival in the subgroup of patients with lower grade and those with oestrogen receptor and progesterone receptor negative tumours in both univariate and multivariate analysis. KLK15 levels of expression were slightly higher (although not statistically significant) in the oestrogen receptor negative and progesterone receptor negative subgroups of patients. KLK15 is up-regulated by androgens in breast cancer cell lines. Time-course and blocking experiments suggest that this regulation is mediated through the androgen receptor

The evolution and storage of primitive melts in the Eastern Volcanic Zone of Iceland: the 10 ka Grímsvötn tephra series (i.e. the Saksunarvatn ash)

Major, trace and volatile elements were measured in a suite of primitive macrocrysts and melt inclusions from the thickest layer of the 10 ka Grímsvötn tephra series (i.e. Saksunarvatn ash) at Lake Hvítárvatn in central Iceland. In the absence of primitive tholeiitic eruptions (MgO > 7 wt.%) within the Eastern Volcanic Zone (EVZ) of Iceland, these crystal and inclusion compositions provide an important insight into magmatic processes in this volcanically productive region. Matrix glass compositions show strong similarities with glass compositions from the AD 1783–84 Laki eruption, confirming the affinity of the tephra series with the Grímsvötn volcanic system. Macrocrysts can be divided into a primitive assemblage of zoned macrocryst cores (An_78–An_92, Mg#_cpx = 82–87, Fo_79.5–Fo_87) and an evolved assemblage consisting of unzoned macrocrysts and the rims of zoned macrocrysts (An_60–An_68, Mg#_cpx = 71–78, Fo_70–Fo_76). Although the evolved assemblage is close to being in equilibrium with the matrix glass, trace element disequilibrium between primitive and evolved assemblages indicates that they were derived from different distributions of mantle melt compositions. Juxtaposition of disequilibrium assemblages probably occurred during disaggregation of incompatible trace element-depleted mushes (mean La/Yb_melt = 2.1) into aphyric and incompatible trace element-enriched liquids (La/Yb_melt = 3.6) shortly before the growth of the evolved macrocryst assemblage. Post-entrapment modification of plagioclase-hosted melt inclusions has been minimal and high-Mg# inclusions record differentiation and mixing of compositionally variable mantle melts that are amongst the most primitive liquids known from the EVZ. Coupled high field strength element (HFSE) depletion and incompatible trace element enrichment in a subset of primitive plagioclase-hosted melt inclusions can be accounted for by inclusion formation following plagioclase dissolution driven by interaction with plagioclase-undersaturated melts. Thermobarometric calculations indicate that final crystal-melt equilibration within the evolved assemblage occurred at ~1140°C and 0.0–1.5 kbar. Considering the large volume of the erupted tephra and textural evidence for rapid crystallisation of the evolved assemblage, 0.0–1.5 kbar is considered unlikely to represent a pressure of long-term magma accumulation and storage. Multiple thermometers indicate that the primitive assemblage crystallised at high temperatures of 1240–1300°C. Different barometers, however, return markedly different crystallisation depth estimates. Raw clinopyroxene-melt pressures of 5.5–7.5 kbar conflict with apparent melt inclusion entrapment pressures of 1.4 kbar. After applying a correction derived from published experimental data, clinopyroxene-melt equilibria return mid-crustal pressures of 4±1.5 kbar, which are consistent with pressures estimated from the major element content of primitive melt inclusions. Long-term storage of primitive magmas in the mid-crust implies that low CO_2 concentrations measured in primitive plagioclase-hosted inclusions (262–800 ppm) result from post-entrapment CO_2 loss during transport through the shallow crust. In order to reconstruct basaltic plumbing system geometries from petrological data with greater confidence, mineral-melt equilibrium models require refinement at pressures of magma storage in Iceland. Further basalt phase equilibria experiments are thus needed within the crucial 1–7 kbar range.D.A.N. was supported by a Natural Environment Research Council studentship (NE/1528277/1) at the start of this project. SIMS analyses were supported by Natural Environment Research Council Ion Microprobe Facility award (IMF508/1013).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00410-015-1170-

20-Year Risks of Breast-Cancer Recurrence after Stopping Endocrine Therapy at 5 Years

The administration of endocrine therapy for 5 years substantially reduces recurrence rates during and after treatment in women with early-stage, estrogen-receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. Extending such therapy beyond 5 years offers further protection but has additional side effects. Obtaining data on the absolute risk of subsequent distant recurrence if therapy stops at 5 years could help determine whether to extend treatment

Long-term outcomes for neoadjuvant versus adjuvant chemotherapy in early breast cancer: meta-analysis of individual patient data from ten randomised trials

Background Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) for early breast cancer can make breast-conserving surgery more feasible and might be more likely to eradicate micrometastatic disease than might the same chemotherapy given after surgery. We investigated the long-term benefits and risks of NACT and the influence of tumour characteristics on outcome with a collaborative meta-analysis of individual patient data from relevant randomised trials. Methods We obtained information about prerandomisation tumour characteristics, clinical tumour response, surgery, recurrence, and mortality for 4756 women in ten randomised trials in early breast cancer that began before 2005 and compared NACT with the same chemotherapy given postoperatively. Primary outcomes were tumour response, extent of local therapy, local and distant recurrence, breast cancer death, and overall mortality. Analyses by intention-to-treat used standard regression (for response and frequency of breast-conserving therapy) and log-rank methods (for recurrence and mortality). Findings Patients entered the trials from 1983 to 2002 and median follow-up was 9 years (IQR 5–14), with the last follow-up in 2013. Most chemotherapy was anthracycline based (3838 [81%] of 4756 women). More than two thirds (1349 [69%] of 1947) of women allocated NACT had a complete or partial clinical response. Patients allocated NACT had an increased frequency of breast-conserving therapy (1504 [65%] of 2320 treated with NACT vs 1135 [49%] of 2318 treated with adjuvant chemotherapy). NACT was associated with more frequent local recurrence than was adjuvant chemotherapy: the 15 year local recurrence was 21·4% for NACT versus 15·9% for adjuvant chemotherapy (5·5% increase [95% CI 2·4–8·6]; rate ratio 1·37 [95% CI 1·17–1·61]; p=0·0001). No significant difference between NACT and adjuvant chemotherapy was noted for distant recurrence (15 year risk 38·2% for NACT vs 38·0% for adjuvant chemotherapy; rate ratio 1·02 [95% CI 0·92–1·14]; p=0·66), breast cancer mortality (34·4% vs 33·7%; 1·06 [0·95–1·18]; p=0·31), or death from any cause (40·9% vs 41·2%; 1·04 [0·94–1·15]; p=0·45). Interpretation Tumours downsized by NACT might have higher local recurrence after breast-conserving therapy than might tumours of the same dimensions in women who have not received NACT. Strategies to mitigate the increased local recurrence after breast-conserving therapy in tumours downsized by NACT should be considered—eg, careful tumour localisation, detailed pathological assessment, and appropriate radiotherapy