Global and local sea level during the Last Interglacial: A probabilistic assessment

The Last Interglacial (LIG) stage, with polar temperatures likely 3-5 C warmer than today, serves as a partial analogue for low-end future warming scenarios. Based upon a small set of local sea level indicators, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) inferred that LIG global sea level (GSL) was about 4-6 m higher than today. However, because local sea levels differ from GSL, accurately reconstructing past GSL requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we compile an extensive database of sea level indicators and apply a novel statistical approach that couples Gaussian process regression of sea level to Markov Chain Monte Carlo modeling of geochronological errors. Our analysis strongly supports the hypothesis that LIG GSL was higher than today, probably peaking at 6-9 m. Our results highlight the sea level hazard associated with even relatively low levels of sustained global warming.Comment: Preprint version of what has since been published in Natur

Rapid glaciation and a two-step sea-level plunge into The Last Glacial Maximum

The approximately 10,000-year-long Last Glacial Maximum, before the termination of the last ice age, was the coldest period in Earth’s recent climate history1. Relative to the Holocene epoch, atmospheric carbon dioxide was about 100 parts per million lower and tropical sea surface temperatures were about 3 to 5 degrees Celsius lower2,3. The Last Glacial Maximum began when global mean sea level (GMSL) abruptly dropped by about 40 metres around 31,000 years ago4 and was followed by about 10,000 years of rapid deglaciation into the Holocene1. The masses of the melting polar ice sheets and the change in ocean volume, and hence in GMSL, are primary constraints for climate models constructed to describe the transition between the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene, and future changes; but the rate, timing and magnitude of this transition remain uncertain. Here we show that sea level at the shelf edge of the Great Barrier Reef dropped by around 20 metres between 21,900 and 20,500 years ago, to −118 metres relative to the modern level. Our findings are based on recovered and radiometrically dated fossil corals and coralline algae assemblages, and represent relative sea level at the Great Barrier Reef, rather than GMSL. Subsequently, relative sea level rose at a rate of about 3.5 millimetres per year for around 4,000 years. The rise is consistent with the warming previously observed at 19,000 years ago1,5, but we now show that it occurred just after the 20-metre drop in relative sea level and the related increase in global ice volumes. The detailed structure of our record is robust because the Great Barrier Reef is remote from former ice sheets and tectonic activity. Relative sea level can be influenced by Earth’s response to regional changes in ice and water loadings and may differ greatly from GMSL. Consequently, we used glacio-isostatic models to derive GMSL, and find that the Last Glacial Maximum culminated 20,500 years ago in a GMSL low of about −125 to −130 metres.Financial support of this research was provided by the JSPS KAKENHI (grant numbers JP26247085, JP15KK0151, JP16H06309 and JP17H01168), the Australian Research Council (grant number DP1094001), ANZIC, NERC grant NE/H014136/1 and Institut Polytechnique de Bordeaux

Intensification of the meridional temperature gradient in the Great Barrier Reef following the Last Glacial Maximum

Tropical south-western Pacific temperatures are of vital importance to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), but the role of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the growth of the GBR since the Last Glacial Maximum remains largely unknown. Here we present records of Sr/Ca and d18O for Last Glacial Maximum and deglacial corals that show a considerably steeper meridional SST gradient than the present day in the central GBR. We find a 1–2 °C larger temperature decrease between 17° and 20°S about 20,000 to 13,000 years ago. The result is best explained by the northward expansion of cooler subtropical waters due to a weakening of the South Pacific gyre and East Australian Current. Our findings indicate that the GBR experienced substantial meridional temperature change during the last deglaciation, and serve to explain anomalous deglacial drying of northeastern Australia. Overall, the GBR developed through significant SST change and may be more resilient than previously thought

Coupled uranium isotope and sea-level variations in the oceans.

Globally, rivers supply uranium to the oceans with excess 234U relative to secular equilibrium and 234U taken-up by corals can be used for dating. In addition, the 234U abundance in sea water, at the time the coral was growing, can be measured independently. The veracity of U-series ages used in determining past sea-level variations is dependent on selecting pristine corals free from diagenetic alteration. A quantitative test for alteration assumes invariant 234U abundances in the oceans for at least the past half a million years and results from samples outside of a narrow range in modern ocean 234U abundance are excluded from data sets. Here, we have used previously published data to show that 234U in the oceans appears to be variable and directly related to changes in sea-level, not only over long glacial–interglacial timescales but also at very short, centennial timescales. Most of the previously discarded data can be used to provide valuable additional sea-level information. The process permits a unique insight into the interplay between sources and sinks of uranium in the oceans mediated by sea-level changes at rates far faster than previously thought possible. Similar, rapid sea-level, forcing of other trace element abundances in the oceans is likely. © 2010, Elsevier Ltd

Issues in radiocarbon and U-series dating of corals from the last glacial period.

Radiocarbon calibration beyond the extent of tree-ring records depends on U-series dating of fossil corals or speleothem, both of which can provide independent calendar ages. Less direct methods rely on layer counting and comparison with other well-dated records. In spite of considerable effort to provide a reliable radiocarbon calibration curve beyond 25,000 years, the majority of the data show large atmospheric radiocarbon peaks which are inconsistent both in magnitude and timing between different determinations. The results of the most recent work [Chiu, T.-C., Fairbanks, R.G., Mortlock, R.A., Bloom, A.L., 2005. Extending the radiocarbon calibration beyond 26,000 years before present using fossil corals. Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (16-17), 1797-1808], from Araki Island fossil corals, indicate a monotonic variation from about 33 to 49 ka, with no radiocarbon peaks, but with some gaps in the data. The difference between this and previous results, from fossil corals, has been attributed to selection of better-quality samples and rigorous analytical methods. However, previous results from Huon Peninsula [Yokoyama, Y., Esat, T.M., Lambeck, K., Fifield, L.K., 2000. Last ice age millennial scale climate changes recorded in Huon Peninsula corals. Radiocarbon 42 (3), 383-401; Cutler, K.B., Gray, S.C., Burr, G.S., Edwards, R.L., Taylor, F.W., Cabioch, G., Beck, J.W., Cheng, H., Moore, J., 2004. Radiocarbon calibration and comparison to 50 kyr BP with paired C-14 and Th-230 dating of corals from Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea. Radiocarbon 46 (3), 1127-1160] show radiocarbon peaks exclusively located within the gaps in the Araki data. The timing of the gaps are not random, but appear to be related to severe climate and sea-level variations associated with Heinrich events initiated in the North Atlantic. We propose that the Huon and Araki data sets are complementary rather than exclusive and that the absence of coral growth at Araki Island during Heinrich events presumably reflect local adverse conditions for coral growth. © 2007, Elsevier Ltd

Prospects for the new frontiers of earth and environmental sciences.

One of the major advances in environmental geochemistry, over the past two decades, has been the introduction of Accelerator-based Mass Spectrometry (AMS) for radiocarbon dating and for investigating terrestrial surface processes through trace quantities of cosmic-ray produced nuclides. During October 2006, a symposium at the University of Tokyo celebrated 50,000 hours of AMS operations at the Tokyo “Micro Analysis Laboratory, Tandem Accelerator (MALT)”. MALT is one of 10 current AMS facilities in Japan but the only one capable of analyzing multiple nuclides. More than 20 talks and over 30 posters were presented covering a diverse range of AMS studies, including, radiocarbon dating, measurements in ice cores, progress in instrumentation, and analyses of in-situ-produced nuclides. © 2008, Elsevier Ltd

ANSTO ECR ion source and its application to mass spectrometry.

At ANSTO we have built an Electron Cyclotron Resonance (ECR) ion source to investigate new concepts for mass spectrometers [1,2] designed to measure isotopic ratios in small samples. ECR ion sources are capable of producing beams of multiply-charged atomic ions with high efficiency and are widely used as heavy ion injectors for accelerators. To meet the requirements of mass spectrometry, we have needed to adapt ECR ion source techniques to our purpose. In this presentation, these and other recent developments of our ECR ion source will be discussed.Australian Institute of Nuclear Science and Engineering (AINSE); Vacuum Society of Australia (VSA); Australian Research Council (ARC); Australian Research Network for Advanced Materials (ARNAM); JAVAC; Nanotechnology Network; ThermoFisher Scientifi

Orbital forcing of the marine isotope stage 9 interglacial.

Milankovitch orbital forcing theory has been used to assign time scales to many paleoclimate records. However, the validity of this theory remains uncertain, and independent sea-level chronologies used to test its applicability have been restricted largely to the past approximately 135,000 years. Here, we report U-series ages for coral reefs formed on Henderson Island during sea-level high-stands occurring at approximately 630,000 and approximately 330,000 years ago. These data are consistent with the hypothesis that interglacial climates are forced by Northern Hemisphere summer solar insolation centered at 65 degrees N latitude, as predicted by Milankovitch theory

Uplift rates defined by U-series and C-14 ages of serpulid-encrusted speleothems from submerged caves near Siracusa, Sicily (Italy).

We have established a plausible rate of uplift near Siracusa in southeastern Sicily (Italy) over the last glacial-interglacial cycle using U-series ages of submerged speleothem calcite and C-14 ages of calcite serpulid layers that encrust the speleothems during cave submergence. The precisely determined ages of these sea level benchmarks were compared with expected relative sea level position based on glaciohydro-isostatic modeling to assess the rate of uplift in this region. When combined with the age of various late Holocene archaeological sites that have been recently described and characterized in terms of their functional position relative to sea level these data collectively define a rate of uplift <= 0.4 mm a(-1) along this portion of the Sicilian coastline. These results are consistent with an age assignment of marine isotope stage (MIS) 5.3 or 5.5 for the Akradina terrace. which in turn places temporal constraints on paleoshorelines above and below this level. © 2008, Elsevier Ltd