Augmenting Transport versus Increasing Cold Storage to Improve Vaccine Supply Chains

Background:When addressing the urgent task of improving vaccine supply chains, especially to accommodate the introduction of new vaccines, there is often a heavy emphasis on stationary storage. Currently, donations to vaccine supply chains occur largely in the form of storage equipment.Methods:This study utilized a HERMES-generated detailed, dynamic, discrete event simulation model of the Niger vaccine supply chain to compare the impacts on vaccine availability of adding stationary cold storage versus transport capacity at different levels and to determine whether adding stationary storage capacity alone would be enough to relieve potential bottlenecks when pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccines are introduced by 2015.Results:Relieving regional level storage bottlenecks increased vaccine availability (by 4%) more than relieving storage bottlenecks at the district (1% increase), central (no change), and clinic (no change) levels alone. Increasing transport frequency (or capacity) yielded far greater gains (e.g., 15% increase in vaccine availability when doubling transport frequency to the district level and 18% when tripling). In fact, relieving all stationary storage constraints could only increase vaccine availability by 11%, whereas doubling the transport frequency throughout the system led to a 26% increase and tripling the frequency led to a 30% increase. Increasing transport frequency also reduced the amount of stationary storage space needed in the supply chain. The supply chain required an additional 61,269L of storage to relieve constraints with the current transport frequency, 55,255L with transport frequency doubled, and 51,791L with transport frequency tripled.Conclusions:When evaluating vaccine supply chains, it is important to understand the interplay between stationary storage and transport. The HERMES-generated dynamic simulation model showed how augmenting transport can result in greater gains than only augmenting stationary storage and can reduce stationary storage needs. © 2013 Haidari et al

Addition of ultrasound to mammography in the case of dense breast tissue: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Mammography is less effective in detecting cancer in dense than in fatty breasts. METHODS: We undertook a systematic search in PubMed to identify studies on women with dense breasts who underwent screening with mammography supplemented with ultrasound. A meta-analysis was undertaken on the proportion of cancers detected only by ultrasound, out of all screen-detected cancers, and the proportion of women with negative mammography who were referred for assessment following ultrasound screening. RESULTS: Twenty-nine studies satisfied our inclusion criteria. The proportion of total cancers detected only by ultrasound was 0.29 (95% CI: 0.27-0.31), consistent with an approximately 40% increase in the detection of cancers compared to mammography. In the studied populations, this translated into an additional 3.8 (95% CI: 3.4-4.2) screen-detected cases per 1000 mammography-negative women. About 13% (32/248) of cancers were in situ from 17 studies with information on this subgroup. Ultrasound approximately doubled the referral for assessment in three studies with these data. CONCLUSIONS: Studies have consistently shown an increased detection of breast cancer by supplementary ultrasound screening. An inclusion of supplementary ultrasound into routine screening will need to consider the availability of ultrasound and diagnostic assessment capacities.Department of Health Policy Research Programme (106/0001). Cancer Research UK (grants C8162/A16892 and C569/A16891)

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background: Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. // Methods: We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung's disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. // Findings: We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung's disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. // Interpretation: Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Long-Term Vegetation Change in Central Africa: The Need for an Integrated Management Framework for Forests and Savannas

peer reviewedTropical forests and savannas are the main biomes in sub-Saharan Africa, covering most of the continent. Collectively they offer important habitat for biodiversity and provide multiple ecosystem services. Considering their global importance and the multiple sustainability challenges they face in the era of the Anthropocene, this chapter undertakes a comprehensive analysis of the past, present, and future vegetation patterns in central African forests and savannas. Past changes in climate, vegetation, land use, and human activity have affected the distribution of forests and savannas across central Africa. Currently, forests form a continuous block across the wet and moist areas of central Africa, and are characterized by high tree cover (>90% tree cover). Savannas and woodlands have lower tree cover (<40% tree cover), are found in drier sites in the north and south of the region, and are maintained by frequent fires. Recent tree cover loss (2000–2015) has been more important for forests than for savannas, which, however, reportedly experienced woody encroachment. Future cropland expansion is expected to have a strong impact on savannas, while the extent of climatic impacts depends on the actual scenario. We finally identify some of the policy implications for restoring ecosystems, expanding protected areas, and designing sustainable ecosystem management approaches in the region

A computer simulation of vaccine prioritization, allocation, and rationing during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic

In the fall 2009, the University of Pittsburgh Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) team employed an agent-based computer simulation model (ABM) of the greater Washington, DC, metropolitan region to assist the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Public Preparedness and Response, Department of Health and Human Services, to address several key questions regarding vaccine allocation during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, including comparing a vaccinating children (i.e., highest transmitters)-first policy versus the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)-recommended vaccinating at-risk individuals-first policy. Our study supported adherence to the ACIP (instead of a children-first policy) prioritization recommendations for the H1N1 influenza vaccine when vaccine is in limited supply and that within the ACIP groups, children should receive highest priority. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd

A Computer Simulation of Employee Vaccination to Mitigate an Influenza Epidemic

Background: Better understanding the possible effects of vaccinating employees is important and can help policymakers and businesses plan vaccine distribution and administration logistics, especially with the current H1N1 influenza vaccine in short supply. Purpose: This article aims to determine the effects of varying vaccine coverage, compliance, administration rates, prioritization, and timing among employees during an influenza pandemic. Methods: As part of the H1N1 influenza planning efforts of the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study network, an agent-based computer simulation model was developed for the Washington DC metropolitan region, encompassing five metropolitan statistical areas. Each simulation run involved introducing 100 infectious individuals to initiate a 1.3 reproductive-rate (R0) epidemic, consistent with H1N1 parameters to date. Another set of scenarios represented a R0=1.6 epidemic. Results: An unmitigated epidemic resulted in substantial productivity losses (a mean of $112.6 million for a serologic 15$193.8 million for a serologic 25% attack rate), even with the relatively low estimated mortality impact of H1N1. Although vaccinating Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices-defined priority groups resulted in the largest savings, vaccinating all remaining workers captured additional savings and, in fact, reduced healthcare workers' and critical infrastructure workers' chances of infection. Moreover, although employee vaccination compliance affected the epidemic, once 20% compliance was achieved, additional increases in compliance provided less incremental benefit. Even though a vast majority of the workplaces in the DC metropolitan region had fewer than 100 employees, focusing on vaccinating only those in larger firms (≥100 employees) was just as effective in mitigating the epidemic as trying to vaccinate employees in all workplaces. Conclusions: Timely vaccination of at least 20% of the large-company workforce can play an important role in epidemic mitigation. © 2010 American Journal of Preventive Medicine